King Charles III to host Trump in September for second U.K. state visit
Buckingham Palace announced Monday in London that Trump had accepted the king's invitation to visit Britain Sept. 17-19, according to British news outlets. He and his wife, first lady Melania Trump, will be hosted at Windsor Castle, the palace added, without providing further details.
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'There's never been a president that high!' the speaker of the House said.
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Navigating headwinds: Nigeria's economic outlook for H2 2025
As the second half of 2025 begins, Nigeria finds itself at a critical economic crossroads. With mixed signals emerging from both global and local environments, policymakers, business leaders, and financial institutions must prepare for a delicate balancing act. From shifting geopolitical dynamics to domestic fiscal pressures, the outlook for H2 2025 is characterized by uncertainty but also opportunity. FSDH's latest macroeconomic update, titled 'Balancing on the Edge in a Fragile World,' provides timely insights into what lies ahead and how stakeholders can navigate this complex terrain. Globally, two major developments have reshaped the economic outlook: the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency and the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict. Trump's reintroduction of import tariffs—10% across the board, with additional levies on selected countries—has renewed global trade tensions, undermined multilateralism, and triggered capital flow reversals to emerging markets. Meanwhile, the Middle East conflict has disrupted oil supply routes, increased freight costs, and spurred volatility in global commodity prices. These external shocks have led the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to revise its global GDP growth forecast downward to 2.8% in 2025, from an earlier 3.3%. Although Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow by 3.8%, driven by structural reforms and improved export performance; however the region remains vulnerable to external shocks, especially in energy markets and financial flows. Domestic Realities: Falling Short of Oil Expectations Nigeria, still heavily reliant on oil, has felt the weight of these developments. Despite commendable efforts to diversify her export base, oil remains the lifeblood of government revenue. The Federal Government's ₦54.99 trillion 2025 budget was benchmarked at US$75 per barrel and 2.06 million barrels per day in production. However, actual performance in H1 2025 has fallen short, with oil prices averaging US$72 per barrel and production consistently below target. This has created a growing fiscal gap and raised questions about Nigeria's ability to meet her ₦35 trillion revenue projection. Positive Signs: PMI Growth and Inflation Tapering Despite these challenges, there are positive signals in the local economy. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), a reliable indicator of economic activity, remained above 50 points between January and May 2025, indicating expansion in key sectors such as agriculture, industry, and services. Inflation, while still high, has begun to decline—from 24.5% in January 2025 to 23% by May 2025—thanks to the combination of improved food supply, relative exchange rate stability, and methodological adjustments by the National Bureau of Statistics. Exchange Rate Stability: Progress or Pause? Exchange rate dynamics have also shown signs of stabilisation. The Naira stood at ₦1,539/US$ as of June 2025, reflecting only a marginal 0.2% depreciation year-to-date. The 'willing buyer, willing seller' FX policy has improved transparency and market confidence, although Nigeria's external reserves declined by 8.5% in H1—from US$40.9 billion to US$37.3 billion—due to rising import bills and debt repayments. FSDH projects that exchange rate stability will depend on continued FX inflows, investor confidence, and fiscal discipline. With oil prices expected to hover around US$75-US$78 per barrel, maintaining production and boosting non-oil exports will be critical. Analysts caution that a renewed slump in oil output or a further deterioration in global trade conditions could reignite currency volatility. Fiscal Reform in Focus: Tax Administration Shake-Up A major turning point in H1 2025 came in June, when President Tinubu signed four transformational tax reform bills into law. These include the Nigeria Tax Act, Nigeria Tax Administration Act, Joint Revenue Board Act, and Nigeria Revenue Service Act. Collectively, these reforms aim to harmonise tax administration, improve compliance, and empower a new, independent national revenue service. Highlights of the reforms include raising the Capital Gains Tax for corporates from 10% to 30%, introducing a Development Levy on large firms, zero-rating VAT for essential goods, and exempting small businesses with under ₦100 million turnover from filing taxes. The reforms are expected to grow Nigeria's tax-to-GDP ratio from 10% to 18% within three years. While implementation remains a hurdle—especially at state and local levels—this marks a significant shift in Nigeria's revenue strategy. In the capital markets, optimism is quietly building. The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) posted a 16.6% year-to-date return as of June 2025, outperforming many global indices. Banking and consumer goods stocks led gains, buoyed by strong corporate earnings and macro reforms. Treasury Bill yields and long-term bond rates have declined, signaling renewed investor appetite for Nigerian assets. Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPIs) flows have increased significantly, hitting US$5.46 billion in Q1—a 67% jump from the previous quarter. This resurgence has been fueled by FX reform, positive real interest rates, and improved clarity on policy direction. However, the risk of 'hot money' outflows remains, underscoring the need for deeper, longer-term capital investments. Strategic Priorities for H2 2025 Looking ahead, FSDH outlined several strategic imperatives for economic stakeholders in H2 2025. First, there is an urgent need to boost oil production, not just to meet budget benchmarks, but to enhance export earnings. Second, the country must deepen its non-oil export capabilities, especially in agriculture and manufacturing, to diversify FX sources. 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Nigeria's economic outlook for the rest of 2025 is cautiously optimistic. Inflation is expected to decline further which may allow for monetary easing later in the year. The Naira is likely to remain within the current range, while GDP growth will be modest, driven by agriculture, services, and rising investor interest. Structural reforms are beginning to take root, but the second half of the year will require political will, macroprudential discipline, and bold leadership. And as FSDH aptly notes in its report, 'Resilience is not just about surviving the storm; it's about building structures that thrive within it.' Nigeria has the opportunity to prove that in H2 2025.
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At least 63 arrests at Palestine Action ban protests
Dozens of people have been arrested at protests across the UK against the decision to proscribe Palestine Action as a terror group. Arrests have been reported in London, Edinburgh, Manchester, Bristol and Truro, all places where demonstrations in support of the pro-Palestine action group took place on Saturday. The Met Police said 55 people were arrested on suspicion of terrorism offences in Westminster for displaying placards in support of Palestine Action. Eight were arrested in Truro in Cornwall. The government proscribed the group earlier this month under the Terrorism Act of 2000, making membership of or support for the group a criminal offence, following a break-in at an RAF base. Across the country, protesters held placards with the words: "I oppose genocide. I support Palestine Action." In London, arrests were made near the Mahatma Gandhi statue in Parliament Square, where as many as 20 police vans attended. Officers moved in swiftly to arrest those holding the placards, many of whom appeared to be over the age of 60. One woman claimed to be in her 80s and was walking with a stick. Some were led away while others had to be carried. Devon and Cornwall Police said two men and six women were arrested on suspicion of terrorism offences after protesters gathered near Truro Cathedral. The force said around 30 people were involved in the peaceful demonstration, organised by campaign group Defend Our Juries. Earlier, the campaign group said that one of those arrested near the cathedral was an 81-year-old former magistrate. It also said 16 people were arrested in Manchester. Police forces in the other locations where protests took place have not yet confirmed the number of arrests they made. Saturday's protests came ahead of a High Court hearing on Monday at which the co-founder of Palestine Action, Huda Ammori, will ask for permission to challenge the decision to ban the group. Last Saturday, 71 arrests were made across the UK at similar protests against the decision. Palestine Action has engaged in activities that have predominantly targeted arms companies since the start of the current war in Gaza. MPs voted to proscribe the group after activists broke into RAF Brize Norton in June, spraying two Voyager aircraft with red paint and causing £7m worth of damage. Palestine Action took responsibility for the incident at the time. Four people have since been remanded in custody, charged with conspiracy to commit criminal damage and conspiracy to enter a prohibited place knowingly for a purpose prejudicial to the safety or interests of the UK. The incident also prompted a security review across all UK military bases.
