How a Real Bear Market Will Play Tricks on You
If you think the extraordinary volatility in markets has started to put ordinary investors off the US market, you're wrong.
Retail investors in the US bought $40 billion worth of domestic stocks in April. UK investors were keen, too. According to fund data group Calastone, they bought another £1.5 billion ($2 billion). Odds are they are pretty pleased with their purchases so far: the S&P 500 has almost entirely erased its losses since President Donald Trump's April 2 'reciprocal' tariff rollout, and as Money Distilled author John Stepek and I keep saying, if you hadn't looked at the market since Christmas, you would have no idea anything had happened at all.
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CBS News
31 minutes ago
- CBS News
Egg prices for consumers fell to 5-month low in May. Here's why.
Consumers are finally getting a break when it comes to egg prices. Egg prices dropped to $4.55 in May, down 11% from $5.12 in April, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The price drop for a dozen Grade A large eggs comes as the effects of a years-long, widespread avian flu outbreak recede and demand for eggs softens slightly, as it usually does this time of year. "There are two main drivers behind the drop in prices — abatement in the conversation about bird flu, and some seasonality in uses of eggs. Typically as we move into summer, demand for eggs soften, as people shift to consuming more meat and grilling outdoors," Brett House, an economics professor at Columbia Business School, told CBS MoneyWatch. "People aren't making heavy breakfasts, so we don't see demand for eggs being as strong as it typically is during the winter months." While egg prices have declined for two consecutive months, down from $6.23 a dozen in March, they remain elevated compared with 12 months ago. In May 2024, a dozen eggs cost $2.70. David Ortega, a food economics professor at Michigan State University, told CBS MoneyWatch that avian flu containment has been responsible for most of the decrease in the average price of eggs. "This is primarily due to a reduction in the number of commercial facilities that have been impacted by the bird flu," he said. "A lot of bird flu activity in the beginning of the year led to a significant surge in egg prices, but those impacts have really lessened over the past couple of months." Wholesale egg prices began to decrease in March, according to Ortega, and the price drops are now starting to show up at the retail level. "There's a bit of a lag before they reach consumers at the grocery store," he said. The bird flu outbreak, which began in the spring of 2022, is not yet entirely contained and continues to impact the industry, he cautioned. "It's still very much an issue," Ortega said. A May outbreak at an Arizona layer farm affected nearly 1.4 million birds, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Consumer Price Index data shows that while overall food costs rose slightly in May, egg prices dropped. "But egg prices are still substantially higher than they were 12 months ago, even after two months of decreases," House said.
Forbes
32 minutes ago
- Forbes
Experts Say Retail Inflation Fears Have Moderated. Don't Believe It.
The inflation from tariffs takes time to arrive. getty The Wall Street Journal reports that the 2.4% (annualized) inflation in retail consumer prices in May was lower than expected and defies 'fears that the impact of President Trump's tariffs would start to show a rise in prices.' The New York Times says inflation is 'muted, with limited effects from tariffs.' Don't listen. There's a lot of reasons why the information for May is not indicative of what will happen the rest of the year. Here's why: When manufacturers abroad increase prices, it takes time to go through the system. Goods ordered today typically don't get delivered for another 90-180 days. That's the primary reason why inflation for May is moderate. The products being bought today were ordered and delivered before higher tariffs ever happened. But there are other reasons. Brands and wholesalers usually do everything they can to avoid price increases. As long as they're still selling older inventory that came in at lower tariff rates, they are going to hold off on increasing prices. The CEOs I talk to in the supply chain are trying to hold the line. They are sharing the cost of the tariffs among manufactuers, wholesalers and retailers so that they don't have to raise prices. That can work for a little while but it's not going to work for very long. There's also another short-term factor that's holding prices low. Wholesalers, brands and retailers are bringing out their slow-moving inventory. Because it can be sold at the old pre-tariff price, it's more attractive now than ever. Those less fashionable, slow-selling products are increasing the supply which is holding prices down. It's another short-term fix and it won't last for long. Because of timing, the inflation from tariff increases will show up at your local retailer in the third and fourth quarter. You will start to see it in the back-to-school season. It won't be in school basics that are ordered from manufacturers well in advance, like pencils and uniforms. You'll see it in discretionary items that are ordered closer to delivery dates, like licensed products or the latest toys. The fourth quarter is where the real impact will come. That's when almost no products on store shelves will have pre-tariff prices and increases will be unavoidable. While tariffs are the main driver of price increases, they aren't the only driver. The uncertainty around tariffs has made retailers very conservative. They are holding back on commitments to large orders of discretionary items. The things you want most won't be available to late shoppers or they may be more expensive. That conservative approach means less excess inventory this year, fewer sale items and fewer day-after items available. That will put upward pricing pressure on retailers and facilitate price increases. Coupled with the increased costs from tariffs, prices can only go in one direction and that's up. When you look at how consumers are acting, you can see it. Discretionary item sales in many categories were up a lot in April, as was foot traffic in stores. Consumers are advancing their purchases to beat the increases. Inflation is a self-accelerating phenomenon. The expectation of inflation causes workers to ask for more wages and their employers have to raise prices and the cycle keeps on going. Breaking the cycle is the challenge. Any basic cost increase including tariffs will push the inflationary cycle. It's on its way here and you will see it in good time.
CNET
41 minutes ago
- CNET
OpenAI Launches Improved Version of Latest Reasoning Model. Here's What It's Best For
OpenAI this week announced an improved version of its o3 generative AI reasoning model, saying it performed better on benchmarks and is designed to spend more time thinking on difficult problems. The new model, called o3-pro, is now available for Pro and Team users in ChatGPT and API users, and will come to Enterprise and Edu users next week. In its release notes, OpenAI said the model is similar to o1-pro, which users favored for its math, science and coding skills. It incorporates improvements from the newer o3 model, which can search the web and use more reasoning skills. "Because o3-pro has access to tools, responses typically take longer than o1-pro to complete," the company said. "We recommend using it for challenging questions where reliability matters more than speed, and waiting a few minutes is worth the tradeoff." Kevin Weil, OpenAI's chief product officer, posted on X that the company is also dropping the price of o3 in the API by 80%, and that rate limits for o3 will be doubled for Plus users. (Disclosure: Ziff Davis, CNET's parent company, in April filed a lawsuit against OpenAI, alleging it infringed Ziff Davis copyrights in training and operating its AI systems.) OpenAI continues to build on its latest rounds of updates to its large language models, which rolled out in April. CEO Sam Altman has teased the larger release of an "open-weights" model, a kind of middle ground between open- and closed-source models that provides more insight into how the models work. He doubled down on that teasing this week, posting on X that it would be exptected later in the summer, but not in June. "[O]ur research team did something unexpected and quite amazing and we think it will be very very worth the wait, but needs a bit longer," he said.
