Tropical Storm Dexter Update: Spaghetti Models Show Louisiana Landfall

Newsweek

4 days ago

Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
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Forecast models indicate that a disturbance crossing over Florida, with the potential to develop into Tropical Storm Dexter, could move towards Louisiana this week, meteorologists say.
Why It Matters
The Atlantic Hurricane season has seen three named systems so far in 2025: Andrea, Barry and Chantal. Chantal brought heavy rain and flooding to North Carolina earlier this month.
What To Know
Spaghetti models shared by meteorologist Dylan Federico on the social platform X showed the system tracking west from Florida along the Gulf Coast towards Louisiana.
NEW MODELS bring Invest #93L straight into Louisiana on Friday. Keep in mind if the center reforms south tonight so will the models.
A track further offshore would mean it's more likely this gets named #Dexter. I still think a tropical storm is the ceiling.#TropicalUpdate 🌀 pic.twitter.com/Dpv5ATWrw5 — Dylan Federico (@DylanFedericoWX) July 16, 2025
"NEW MODELS bring Invest 93L straight into Louisiana on Friday. Keep in mind if the center reforms south tonight so will the models," Federico wrote.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the disturbance—known as Invest 93L—is moving west across the Florida Panhandle, bringing "disorganized" showers and thunderstorms south of its center.
An NHC map highlights the area in question.
An NHC map highlights the area in question.
National Hurricane Center
"This system is forecast to continue moving westward, and could emerge or redevelop over the far northeastern to north-central portion of the Gulf, reaching the coast of Louisiana by Thursday," the agency said in an update early Wednesday morning.
"If this system moves far enough offshore, environmental conditions over the Gulf appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could still form over the next couple of days before the system moves fully inland by the end of the week."
The agency reports a 40 percent chance of cyclone formation within the next seven days, with the same likelihood projected for the next 48 hours.
What People Are Saying
Meteorologist Dylan Federico said on X, Tuesday: "A track further offshore would mean it's more likely this gets named Dexter. I still think a tropical storm is the ceiling."
The National Hurricane Center said on X, Tuesday: "A low pressure area (Invest 93L) could emerge over the far northeastern & north-central Gulf, approaching Louisiana on Thursday as it moves westward. Environmental conditions over the Gulf are generally favorable, and a tropical depression could form if the system moves far enough offshore over the next couple of days. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall/flooding is the primary hazard from central Florida westward through portions of Louisiana."
Meteorologist Chris Mulcahy said on X, Tuesday: "Dexter seeming like more of a possibility over the next two days. Developing in the Gulf west of Florida and then potentially making landfall around Southern Louisiana. A lot can still change but already parts of LA have a high risk for flooding rain!"
AccuWeather meteorologist Dan Pydynowski told Newsweek on Monday: "There's the potential this feature could become nearly stationary late this week near southeastern Louisiana along the central Gulf Coast. If this happens, there could be a greater concern for heavy, flooding rainfall. Even if this system fails to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm, we feel there is still a flooding risk due to heavy rainfall."
What Happens Next
Meteorologists will continue to track the system. Forecasts are sometimes subject to change.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June through November.
Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15 and lasts until November 30.