Walmart Shares Jump 40% in a Year: Should You Still Buy Now?
WMT Price Performance vs. Industry, S&P 500 & Sector
Compared to its peers, The Kroger Co. KR, Ross Stores, Inc. ROST and Target Corporation TGT, Walmart's stock performance stands out. Kroger delivered solid 36% growth over the same period, while Ross Stores saw a 12% decline. Target Corporation fared even worse, with a 29.8% drop, reflecting broader challenges faced by legacy general merchandise retailers. Walmart's relative strength highlights its ability to adapt and execute in a rapidly evolving retail environment.
As of the latest trading session, Walmart closed at $96.81, 8.1% below the 52-week high of $105.30, reached on Feb. 14, 2025. The stock's solid upward trajectory is further validated by the position above key technical benchmarks, the 200-day simple moving average of $91.20, indicating sustained bullish momentum and price stability.
WMT Trades Above 200-Day Moving Average
Walmart's strong price performance, coupled with technical support, underscores investor confidence in its underlying business strength. To better understand what's fueling this momentum, let's take a closer look at the company's fundamentals.
What's Powering Walmart's Momentum?
Walmart continues to demonstrate operational strength through its diversified business model and steady execution across both physical and digital retail channels. The company has maintained a stronghold in the evolving global retail landscape by consistently driving customer engagement, whether in-store or online, through its broad multichannel capabilities.
One of the primary drivers behind this sustained momentum is Walmart's robust omnichannel ecosystem. By integrating stores with digital infrastructure, Walmart has created a seamless shopping experience backed by data analytics, technology investments, and in-store operational enhancements. With a large portion of the U.S. population living near a Walmart store, the retailer leverages store-based logistics to offer rapid delivery and pickup services, enhancing convenience and driving higher customer satisfaction.
The company delivered strong comparable sales growth, supported by continued store enhancements and strategic digital investments. In the United States, comparable sales (excluding fuel) increased 4.5% in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, driven by a 1.6% rise in transactions and a 2.8% gain in average ticket size, signaling healthy consumer engagement and a focus on value. The grocery segment remained a standout performer, delivering mid-single-digit comp growth and capturing additional market share.
E-commerce remains a high-growth pillar. In the fiscal first quarter, Walmart's global e-commerce sales surged 22%, led by strong adoption across all business segments, with United States e-commerce sales rising 21%, supported by fast fulfillment, robust marketplace activity, and growing advertising revenues. Sam's Club U.S. stood out with a 27% e-commerce increase, underscoring the value of club-fulfilled delivery and pickup. International markets also contributed meaningfully, with a 20% e-commerce jump.
What's Pressuring Walmart's Growth Momentum?
While Walmart maintains strong operational momentum, near-term headwinds are beginning to emerge. Tariff-related pressures remain a key concern, with management acknowledging that the company cannot fully sidestep the impact of heightened trade costs. On its last earnings call, leadership cautioned that a return to sharply elevated tariffs could significantly hinder year-over-year earnings growth. Reflecting the current uncertainty, Walmart also refrained from issuing earnings per share guidance for the second quarter of fiscal 2026, citing a highly unpredictable operating environment.
Moreover, Walmart's substantial international footprint exposes it to foreign exchange volatility. In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, adverse currency movements shaved $2.4 billion off reported sales, underscoring the risks posed by macroeconomic fluctuations. While the company's core operations remain resilient, these external challenges could cloud its short-term financial visibility.
Walmart Valuation Picture
From a valuation standpoint, Walmart is currently trading at a premium compared to its industry peers. The stock's forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 35.48, higher than the industry average of 32.62. Adding to these concerns, Walmart currently holds a Value Score of C, indicating potential overvaluation relative to its fundamentals. In comparison, key peers such as Kroger, Ross Stores, and Target are trading at significantly lower earnings multiples of 14.18, 20.25 and 13.11, respectively, which may appear more attractive to value-focused investors.
WMT P/E Ratio (Forward 12 Months)
Investment Guidance for WMT
Despite mounting external pressures, Walmart continues to distinguish itself as a leader in modern retail through its scale, agility and evolving business model. Its investments in digital infrastructure, fulfillment, and high-margin verticals, such as advertising and memberships, are helping drive sustainable growth. Still, elevated valuation metrics and global economic headwinds, particularly tariffs and currency fluctuations, warrant a more cautious stance in the near term. Investors who prioritize long-term structural strength may find Walmart worth holding, while those focused on value may prefer to monitor for a more attractive entry point.
At present, WMT carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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