How worried should Labour be by Corbyn's mailing list?
I am reminded of the Labour leadership election in 2015. There was a rule change that gave members of the party a right to vote for the next Labour leader. And predictably, Labour membership surged. It made Labour the largest party in Europe. Constituency Labour Party meetings were packed out. Factions were formed.
Zack Polanski, in his New Statesman debate with Adrian Ramsey two weeks ago, alluded to a similar phenomenon in the Green Party now. Branch meetings are swelling in size thanks to the upcoming leadership election; disgruntled councillors and members are switching sides to get what some might view as a Corbyn-friendly leader on the air-waves. At least, that's what Zack says.
This is a bell weather moment. There is obviously an appetite for a sharper left populist rabble rouser to shake up the status quo, whether a Corbyn/Sultana led party or a Polanski led one. The right-wing version of this disposition has had an outlet in Reform for at least a year now, and now the left is finding its own vehicle.
Perhaps the conditions have never been better for the emergence of a left populist party. Voters are less loyal, more consumer-minded, more swingy (as I wrote in 2022), than ever before. As research from Peter Kellner shows, the only enthused loyalists in town right now are bedded in with Reform and the Greens – the radicals.
But members, as with Labour's surge in 2015 or the Green surge now, do not speak for voters. They are vastly unrepresentative of the unattached masses. And in the Corbyn/Sultana case, this isn't even membership. Plenty of over-excited people are claiming Your Party has overtaken the Tories and Reform and may just have pipped Labour for the most popular party nationally. But this is a mailing list, free of charge, just 'keep me in the loop' stuff. This does not mean the surge is totally meaningless, but it is less meaningful than half a million paid up members to a real party with a real name and legitimate infrastructure.
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What does that tell us about the real term popularity of this future project? One poll tells us a Corbyn-type party would tweak the enthusiasms of 18 per cent of us. This compares to 30 per cent for Labour in its current form, 24 per cent for the Conservatives, 28 per cent for the Greens… and 28 per cent for Reform. In isolation, as a headline, 18 per cent sounds exciting. In as split an environment as Britain's, 18 per cent at the ballot box would win you a hefty number of seats, and if Reform isn't too far ahead, kingmaker role in the coalition negotiations.
But look closer and you will see the 18 per cent is the real upper-limit of what this party could get. And the support trends among the younger (an unreliable voter base).
Corbyn does bring voters out. I've never seen his face on my Facebook feed more than now. And I remember 2017! Corbyn excites. But he also brings out his opponents. No party has people swearing themselves from ever voting for it more. In the long term, one has to wonder whether a New Left party so heavily tied to the Corbyn brand would be as toxifying as it exciting. For now however, we know there is appetite on the left for something sharper than what Labour currently offers. The mailing list is not really evidence of that.
[See more: A Trump shaped elephant]
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