Shayne O'Cass's race-by-race tips, analysis for Scone on Saturday
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No one rides Scone better than Aaron Bullock in my opinion. He's got a 20 per cent winning strike-rate at the venue. Bullock rides GENERAL SOHO (6) in the Midway and speaking of strike-rates, how about this one; six rides for four wins on the son of the now Turkey-based Epaulette. HIGHBORN HARRY (8) has some decent Midway form. Exhibit 'A' being his second to Flying Bandit over 1800m at Randwick. JUMEIRAH BEACH (5), the son of Vormista, is on a hat-trick.
Bet: General Soho each-way
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ROSES IMMINENTE (14) is a local who broke her maiden here on debut in barnstorming style. She has won three from eight and as for two previous Highway runs, there were excuses but what is absolutely critical is that she doesn't have to travel four-odd hours down to Sydney this time. STRAIGHT FIRE (17) wasn't entirely at home on the Heavy 8 at Hawkesbury on Cup Day. Reckon she is purpose-built for Scone. FIORSUM FRED (5) is a big watch. Respect.
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ODAKA (14) will be ridden by Andrew Gibbons and for those keeping score, his tally for Lees is 474 wins and 756 placings with $9.6m in prizemoney. Odaka is by Ole Kirk from a great family. Her debut at Randwick on Australia Day eve was an eye-catcher and note she was $20 into $13. Trialling very well too. SYLPH (15), the filly from the same family that gave us Tobin Bronze, has drawn wide but a fast run 1100m at Scone is perfect for her. Ditto that last bit for VINGT NEUF NOIR (12).
Bet: Odaka each-way, Vingt Neuf Noir to place, box trifecta 8, 12, 14, 15
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RACE 4: Lion (Bm72) 1300m
BLAZING HARRY (1) has 62kg here with no claim which looked bad at first glance but it's not as bad as all that when you factor in that all bar one of the main field have 57kg or more. Blazing Harry does have a 76 rating in this Benchmark 72 so there you go. He is known to be a good fresh horse and has trialled up well, twice, since his $300,000 Gateway second on December 7. If horses are charging home from the back, and there is no reason why they won't be, can't you just imagine ALLAPERCANTO (10) sprouting wings late.
Bet: Blazing Harry to win, Allapercanto to place
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GOOD BANTER (14) is so much more talented than a horse that has won just two from 15. To be fair, one was the Group 3 Adrian Knox which boosted her value into the stratosphere being a Tavistock out of a half-sister to Danzdanzdance, etc. She was $26 into $16 at one stage of betting last start and ran accordingly; that is a fast finishing fourth to Know Thyself. MIRACLE SPIN (2) has a respectable set of numbers. The most attractive of them being that he is one for one at the track and distance. In fact, it was the Midway on this same card in 2023.
Bet: Good Banter each-way, quinella 2, 14
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RACE 6: Gro Events (Bm78) 1100m
TANGLEWOOD (3) has four wins and four placings from his 12 starts. He is a Highway winner, a Kensington winner as well but his best runs are in fact 'losses'. Specifically, his head second to Clear Thinking (beating Lisztomania) in a Highway and of course his last start third in the Kosciuszko. Trials equal wow. If you're on swoopers all day, LEFT FIELD (15) is definitely on your team. ZEALOUSLY (6) has drawn well this time as opposed to last. Braith Nock is a great Scone rider.
Bet: Tangelwood to win, exacta 3 to beat 15
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RACE 7: Coolmore Denise's Joy Stakes 1100m
Just for the record, James Cummings has won the last three runnings of the Denise's Joy. David Payne could be the man to end the sequence. He saddles-up SHOHISHA (2) who was runner-up in the Gosford Guineas in the first of her three runs last prep; the campaign ending with a three length fifth to Lady Shenandoah in the Light Fingers. Trialled well, drawn well. Tycoon Lil's great granddaughter SOFT LOVE (6) is three from three coming into this. They are all in Victoria but she sure did look at home the Sydney-way in her trial.
Bet: Shohisha to win, quinella 2, 6, box trifecta 2, 6, 9, 16
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Sentiment doesn't guarantee anything in racing but there wouldn't be a trainer more eager to win the Ortensia than Paul Messara for obvious reasons. Messara co-trains the favourite CLEAR THINKING (13) who is unbeaten in both home track runs, one by eight lengths. Drawn wide but don't see that as too big a disadvantage here. PISANELLO (6) has won six from 14, one of them was the amazing Class 1 on Scone Cup Day last year and he's only got better since then.
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VIBRANT SUN (1) has won a Group 1 and a Group 3 in just nine starts. Her three career wins have been at a mile and 2000m but 1400m on a big track like Scone, and fresh, is an appealing way to kick off the new campaign. Trials are trials but she looks to be flying. WATCH MY GIRL (10) has some genuine depth to her form whether that being in the odd mares stakes race she has run so well in or just in Benchmark grade keeping in mind that she was fifth to Les Vampires on March 15 at her last run.
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Best Bet time. Silent Witness' relative CHRYSAOR (7) has black-type form in three States and in some very high calibre races. His personal best at present is the Callander-Presnell beating Ducasse and co but what about that win in the Tontonan at Flemington that day. He's a great fresh horse, the trials were fantastic. Honestly, if he got a Heavy 10 on the day, he could medal in the Stradbroke. WELWAL (1) has the class. BRUDENELL (2) is in great form and so, so reliable.
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