
Euro under pressure as US-EU trade deal fails to impress
France, on Monday, called the framework trade agreement a "dark day" for Europe, saying the bloc had caved in to U.S. President Donald Trump with an unbalanced deal that slapped a headline 15% tariff on EU goods.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said his economy would suffer "significant" damage due to the agreed tariffs.
The euro slid 1.3% in the previous session, its sharpest one-day percentage fall in over two months, on worries about growth and as euro-area government bond yields fell.
The common currency last traded 0.07% higher at $1.1594.
"It hasn't taken long for markets to conclude that this relatively good news is still, in absolute terms, bad news as far as the near term implications for euro zone growth are concerned," said Ray Attrill, head of FX research at National Australia Bank.
"The deal has been roundly condemned by France while others - including German Chancellor Merz, are playing up the negative consequences for exporters, and with that, economic growth."
The slide in the euro in turn boosted the dollar, which jumped 1% against a basket of currencies overnight.
The dollar held on to gains on Tuesday and knocked sterling to a two-month low of $1.3349. The yen edged marginally higher to 148.49 per dollar.
The dollar index steadied at 98.67.
"While the U.S. dollar's strength... may reflect the perception that the new U.S.-EU deal is lopsided in favour of the U.S., the U.S. dollar's strength may also reflect a feeling that the U.S. is re-engaging with the EU and with its major allies," said Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie Group.
Still, Trump said on Monday most trading partners that do not negotiate separate trade deals would soon face tariffs of 15% to 20% on their exports to the United States, well above the broad 10% tariff he set in April.
Elsewhere, the Australian dollar eased 0.05% to $0.6518, while the New Zealand dollar was little changed at $0.5972.
The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.1813 per dollar.
Top U.S. and Chinese economic officials met in Stockholm on Monday for more than five hours of talks aimed at resolving long-standing economic disputes at the centre of a trade war between the world's top two economies, seeking to extend a truce by three months.
Apart from trade negotiations, focus this week is also on rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BOJ).
Both central banks are expected to stand pat on rates, but traders will watch subsequent comments to gauge the timing of their next moves.
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Reuters
21 minutes ago
- Reuters
Investors game out market reaction to Fed chair replacement favorites
NEW YORK, Aug 7 (Reuters) - As President Trump narrows his shortlist for the next Federal Reserve chair, investors and strategists are closely analyzing the range of possible market reactions to each potential nominee poised to replace Jerome Powell when his term is over. Reactions may include a positive move if current Fed Governor Christopher Waller is picked, signaling continuity of leadership, to a possible negative response if the nominee to replace Powell is viewed as aligned with Trump, a situation that could call into question the independence of the central bank from the White House. While Trump has for months flirted with ousting Powell, the unexpected announcement last week of Governor Adriana Kugler's exit from the board has brought fresh attention to the composition and leadership of the monetary policy-making body. Earlier in the week, Trump indicated he had a short list of four possible replacements for Powell, including economic adviser Kevin Hassett and former Fed governor and Trump supporter Kevin Warsh, and two other people. On Wednesday, Trump said he would likely nominate a candidate from a short list of three, to serve the remaining months of Kugler's term, leaving the choice of a permanent replacement for a later date. Bloomberg News on Thursday reported current Fed Governor Christopher Waller is a top candidate for Fed chair within the Trump team, citing sources. "After months of extensive telegraphing from the White House, investors have come to expect the next chair to be a Trump loyalist with an avowed dovish bias," said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist, at Corpay in Toronto. Online betting markets Polymarket and Kalshi on Thursday showed Waller, Hassett and Warsh among those most likely to replace Powell. Broadly, the independence of the Fed remains the key issue for most investors and market reactions could vary depending on how closely prospective candidates to replace Powell are perceived to be aligned with Trump. "President Trump will continue to nominate the most competent and experienced individuals to deliver on his pledge to Make America Wealthy Again. Unless it comes from President Trump himself, however, any discussion about personnel decisions should be regarded as pure speculation," White House Spokesperson Kush Desai, said. Markets were likely to react most favorably should Trump nominate Waller to Powell's job, several investors said. Waller, an advocate for an immediate interest rate cut, said last month he would accept the job as head of the U.S. central bank if asked by Trump. In a statement following his dissenting vote against the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to hold rates steady in July, Waller said the Fed's 'wait-and-see approach' to monetary policy was "overly cautious." "Waller would probably represent the most continuity with the current style of Fed management," Steven Englander, head of global G10 FX research at Standard Chartered. Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at asset manager Janney Capital Management, said, while there isn't a strong market opinion of policy differences under a Waller and Warsh pick, Waller has been flexible and fast-moving in his time at the Fed and has largely defied any hawkish or dovish bias. As such, should Trump seek to name him chair it would likely elicit a positive response from markets, said Mark Malek, chief investment officer of Siebert Financial. The Federal Reserve declined to comment. A potentially more negative reaction may come should the nominee to replace Powell be viewed as a Trump ally. "The more the candidate is seen as being aligned with the White House, the more detrimental it is going to be to U.S. assets in general," Felix Vezina-Poirier, strategist for BCA Research, said. That means a Hassett nomination could spur a negative reaction with longer-term yields rising and the dollar selling off, analysts said. With Hassett viewed as very closely aligned with The White House, his nomination would not bode well for the independence of the Fed, some analysts said. A request for comment was sent to Hassett via the White House, but he did not respond immediately. Warsh might also prompt some market worry, investors and analysts said. Warsh, currently a visiting fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, was a Fed governor from February 2006 to April 2011, leaving about a year before Powell became a governor. During his tenure at the Fed, Warsh was frequently an advocate for tighter, not easier, monetary policy and criticized the Fed's expansionary balance sheet policy. "With a long history of taking overtly-political views on policy — especially in the opinion pages — former governor Kevin Warsh is more of a wild card," Corpay's Schamotta said. "Although investors might welcome his recent Damascene conversion to lowering rates, it comes after years of criticising the Fed for keeping policy too loose, and has been paired with a commitment to reducing the central bank's balance sheet more quickly—something that could push borrowing costs higher for an already-stretched government," he said. Warsh did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Still, the biggest knock for markets could come if Trump were to nominate a candidate who is viewed as lacking Federal Reserve or economic experience. Such a move would also raise questions about Fed independence, investors said. "The more significant question is whether any of these Fed candidates would be more or less "captured" by fiscal interests from the White House," LeBas said.


The Guardian
21 minutes ago
- The Guardian
Modi ready to ‘pay a heavy price' as India seeks to resist Trump tariffs
The Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, has said he is ready to 'pay a very heavy price' for resisting US attempts to dictate the country's trade policies, as India took a defiant position in the wake of Trump's punitive export tariffs. In an executive order signed on Wednesday, Trump slapped India with an additional 25% tariff, in a move he described as punishment for continuing to purchase large quantities of Russian oil and 'fuelling Russia's war machine'. It came on top of a 25% tariff for Indian exports already announced by the US president. India's foreign ministry hit back almost instantly, calling the additional tariff 'unfair, unjustified and unreasonable' and accusing the US of double standards, as other countries also importing Russian oil have not faced the same punitive action. In a speech on Wednesday night which did not directly mention Trump or the new tariffs, Modi appeared defiant as he addressed one of the biggest sticking points in India's ongoing trade negotiations with the US over tariffs. According to Indian officials, the US has been pushing India to allow for the import of American genetically-modified (GM) crops into the country and for duty-free imports on US farm and dairy products. However, protecting India's hundreds of millions of farmers – who are a powerful political lobby – is seen as a highly sensitive area for the Modi government. Indian officials said these areas were 'non-negotiable on principle' and were firm that 'we can't import GM'. That stance was reflected in Modi's speech on Wednesday night. 'India will never compromise on the interests of its farmers, livestock rearers and fisherfolk,' he said. 'And I know that I will personally have to pay a very heavy price for this, but I am ready.' While trade negotiations continue between Indian and US officials, it was widely acknowledged they had been torpedoed by Trump's announcement of a total 50% tariffs for India, which will come into effect on 27 August unless another deal is agreed in time. Shashi Tharoor, an MP for the opposition Congress party, said the tariffs seemed to signal 'some other hidden message from Washington' and declared that India should 'also impose a 50% tariff on US goods'. The Congress party president, Mallikarjun Kharge, slammed the US attempt to use tariffs to coerce India into shifting its trade and foreign policies, which have seen it maintain a relationship with Russia for decades. 'India's national interest is supreme,' said Kharge. 'Any nation that arbitrarily penalises India for our time-tested policy of strategic autonomy … doesn't understand the steel frame India is made of.' The opposition also directed anger towards the BJP government and the prime minister, with opposition MP Tejashwi Yadav accusing Modi of 'dancing to America's tune'. Not long ago, Indian media had been celebrating the 'special relationship' between Modi and Trump and its benefits for India, but by Wednesday the mood had shifted and anti-America and anti-Trump sentiment was rife across India's newspapers and TV channels. 'India's sovereignty is non-negotiable and its foreign policy choices cannot be manipulated by other countries, no matter how significant their own ties with India are,' ran an editorial in The Hindu newspaper. In his Indian Express column, Pratap Bhanu Mehta called Trump 'imperialism on steroids' and said that 'capitulating to this emerging American imperial state, under the euphemisms of reform, realism or capitalist reset, is an affront to both India's dignity and its interests'. 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Prerna Prabhakar, a senior associate at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress, a Delhi thinktank, emphasised that the US was 'definitely a very important export destination for India'. She said that if the 50% tariffs do come into play 'some sectors are going to have a very, very hard time', with smaller textile and apparel firms likely to take a major hit. However, Prabhakar emphasised that India's own high tariffs meant it still only accounted for 2% of exports globally. Rather than responding to Trump by raising tariffs, Prabhakar said that India's approach should instead be to reduce them, to better integrate itself into global markets and open up other trade opportunities with regions such as the EU, Africa and Latin America. 'If India wants to offset this problem of being at a disadvantage in the US market, it has to work on its own competitiveness issues,' she said. 'Fundamental to that is lowering its own tariffs.'


Reuters
21 minutes ago
- Reuters
US crude exports hit four-year low in July on low domestic supplies
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