‘GTA 6' Predicted To Make $7.6 Billion In 60 Days, But That's Impossible
There's a new story circulating about some predications regarding next year's Grand Theft Auto 6, some logical, some wildly off base.
This is from Venture Capital firm Konvoy, where managing partner Josh Chapman makes a few predictions, mainly that GTA 6 will be the biggest gaming launch of all time, and that it will make $7.6 billion two months after release.
The first one? Yeah, I mean, that's not really a question. GTA 5 did $1 billion in three days and GTA 6, due to the expansion of the industry and massive elevation of the series, will no doubt top that. It will be the biggest entertainment launch in history, not just among video games.
However, getting to $7.6 billion in two months is…something else entirely. Assuming an $80 price point, which even with rumors about GTA 6 potentially costing $100, is a fair bet, that would mean GTA 6 would need to sell around 95 million copies in two months. To put that in context, that would be selling 20% of every Call of Duty game ever sold, combined, in two months. And for the GTA series itself, that would be close to 50% of its 200+ million sales over the course of 12 years. Again, in two months. It took five years for GTA 5 to sell 100 million copies.
GTA 5
I will say Konvoy's estimation that GTA 6 will sell $2 billion over the course of its first month could happen. He says that will make up its reported $2 billion budget, but that has never been confirmed and remains an estimation. This is even with the data that GTA 5 didn't hit $2 billion until closer to nine months after launch. But I'm willing to say GTA 6 mania may speed that along. Maybe the full two months.
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However, this proves the point about just how fast things can drop after an initial rush of sales. If you are dying to pick up GTA 6, there is little reason you would not buy it day one, especially if this is now an era when 80% of players will be downloading the game, not waiting in line for it, so to think it would ramp up to $7.6 billion in two months is ludicrous.
There are also simply…platform limits. And they are severe. GTA 6 is only releasing on Xbox Series X/S consoles and PS5. No last generation PS4s or Xbox Ones. And no PC, a huge market that Rockstar enjoys selling to separately later, causing many players to want to rebuy. It will not be on Switch or Switch 2 (maybe ever).
So those 95 million sales in two months would be coming from…let's see, 77.8 million reported PS5 sales and an estimated 30-35 million Xbox Series sales. So we're talking about something near a 90% attach rate on ~110 million consoles for a single game for this console generation. Yeah sure, totally feasible…
GTA 6 will set loads of records, and will past many of GTA 5's milestones easily, not to mention the rest of the entire entertainment industry. But when you're throwing around billions and billions of dollars in estimates, you have to actually look at the facts. And that simply does not add up.
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