Mets' playoff push heats up as National League race turns into a free-for-all

New York Times

4 days ago

'Up ahead they's a thousan' lives we might live, but when it comes it'll on'y be one. If I go ahead on all of 'em, it's too much.'
— 'The Grapes of Wrath,' John Steinbeck
With the trade deadline in the past, it's time to refocus on what's happening on the field and on the races affected by all those acquisitions. With two months to go, let's reset what the National League playoff picture looks like and where the Mets fit in.
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*SOS is the remaining strength of schedule, as calculated by Tankathon.
This is relatively comfortable right now; in fact, you probably feel pretty good about penciling in the six postseason teams into the National League's field in October, no offense to Cincinnati. But there are important strata within that wild-card field: a race for home-field advantage as the No. 4 seed and, for arguably the first time since this format was introduced in 2022, a race where the No. 5 seed is preferable to the No. 6 seed. (The Mets preferred to lose the season finale to Atlanta last year so they could play Milwaukee rather than San Diego.) If the season had ended Sunday, the Mets would open the postseason needing to win two out of three at Wrigley Field.
You, of course, remember what Atlanta did in 2022. After 50 games, it was four games below .500, and then it played at an absurd pace the rest of the way (a .696 winning percentage, or 113-win pace) to win 101 games, catch the Mets and claim the division.
The Marlins, for more than a month, have been better than that. Miami's turnaround didn't start until 75 games in, and it was 15 below .500. And yet the Fish have made it back by winning 25 of 35 — tied for the best 35-game stretches in club history with teams from, gulp, 1997 and 2003. Do I think the Marlins pose a serious threat to the Phillies or Mets in the division? No, not just yet, but that we're even pondering the question is wild.
The Mets and Phillies keep trading first place back and forth, and with less than two months to go, still have seven games against each other. Those games figure to play a significant role in determining how this shakes out.
This is one of the fascinating elements of the National League playoff race this year: The Central division champion should really challenge for a first-round bye. I mean, the Brewers have the best record in all of baseball; that's more than a challenge. But in 2022 and 2023, the Central leader was well out of the picture for a bye by the first week of August (nine games back in '22, 4 1/2 in '23). Last year's Brewers were within 1 1/2 games, to be fair, but this year's Milwaukee and Chicago squads appear much likelier to stick with the Phillies/Mets and Dodgers for an all-important first-round bye.
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As little help as the bye has provided on the National League side of the bracket the last three years, avoiding those added games in the Wild Card Series — even if you win it — is critical to making a longer run in October. That would have been one fewer start for members of the Mets' tiring rotation last season.
The Mets lost two of three to the Giants to complete a 1-5 week. New York dropped to 63-49 on the season, trading first place back to the Phillies on Sunday night.
The Guardians' four-game winning streak ended Sunday against the Twins. Cleveland is up to 56-55 and second place in the AL Central, three games out of a wild-card spot.
The Brewers swept three in Washington and have won seven of eight series since dropping two of three to the Mets in early July. (The exception: to the equally red-hot Marlins.) Milwaukee's 67-44 record is the best in baseball. Its road trip swings through Atlanta before the Mets come to town Friday.
v. Cleveland
LHP Sean Manaea (1-1, 2.08 ERA) v. RHP Slade Cecconi (5-4, 3.77 ERA)
RHP Clay Holmes (9-6, 3.45) v. LHP Logan Allen (7-9, 4.06)
LHP David Peterson (7-4, 2.83) v. RHP Gavin Williams (6-4, 3.33)
at Milwaukee
RHP Kodai Senga (7-3, 2.31) v. RHP Brandon Woodruff (3-0, 2.22)
RHP Frankie Montas (3-2, 6.68) v. RHP Logan Henderson (3-0, 1.78)
LHP Sean Manaea v. RHP Quinn Priester (10-2, 3.27)
Red = 60-day IL
Orange = 15-day IL
Blue = 10-day IL
• One of the reasons the Mets were so keen on adding Cedric Mullins' left-handed bat is the prognosis on Jesse Winker, who was moved to the 60-day injured list this week. Winker received an epidural in his back and hasn't responded as hoped. While the Mets think a return this season is still on the table, it's possible Winker doesn't make it back.
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• The same goes for Jose Siri, who is due for a reevaluation sometime this week. Siri still isn't back on a running program after being shut down earlier in the summer.
• Paul Blackburn made another rehab start Saturday. A decision on whether he rejoins the major-league roster (likely in the bullpen) or is let go should come soon.
Triple-A: Syracuse v. Charlotte (Chicago, AL)
Double-A: Binghamton at Somerset (New York, AL)
High-A: Brooklyn at Hudson Valley (New York, AL)
Low-A: St. Lucie at Tampa (New York, AL)
In the spring of 2022 and 2023, one of the questions asked most frequently of Buck Showalter centered on either Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander. It went something like: Now that you're in the same dugout as those guys, what have you learned about them? And Showalter's invariable answer was, 'You see why,' as in why those pitchers have had those careers.
While 'The Grapes of Wrath' is not a top-10 novel for me like Steinbeck's 'East of Eden,' it is one of those classics that, when I finally got around to it a few years back, I saw why.
The Mets have made three memorable major trades for Cleveland middle infielders: for Carlos Baerga (1996), Roberto Alomar (2002) and Francisco Lindor (2021). In all three cases, the Mets got an additional player back. Can you name the three other players traded to New York in those deals?
(Alomar came with two other players, but only one made the majors with the Mets. Bonus points if you get that fourth name.)
(I'll reply to the correct answer in the comments.)