Democrats look to push into GOP turf with buzzy candidate recruits for the midterms

Politico

05-04-2025

Democrats are getting ready to push deeper into Republican-held turf next November.
Emboldened by the special elections last Tuesday, the GOP's adversaries are sensing opportunity. Three
buzzy
Senate
candidates
announced bids this week — the same week that Democratic turnout powered them to a decisive win in the swing state of Wisconsin and two long-shot Democrats overperformed in a pair of deep-red Florida districts. Now, party recruiters are reporting an uptick in interest from candidates in tough-to-win territory.
'This puts a lot more on the field. That puts Democrats on offense. That is us saying — if you're in a Trump plus-15 district, we're playing there,' said Rep. Morgan McGarvey (D-Ky.), a co-chair tasked with recruitment for the party campaign arm. 'We're seeing right now a lot of interest from people all over the country in stepping up for their country to run for office.'
In Iowa, two state lawmakers are considering runs against Rep. Zach Nunn in a district sure to be impacted by tariffs. Two prospective candidates in Pennsylvania and Michigan lost or left jobs thanks to the Trump administration, giving them a powerful story on the campaign trail. A pair of former representatives are considering comeback bids for battleground districts in the Rust Belt.
And Democrats think at least two districts in Virginia, held by GOP Reps. Rob Wittman and Jen Kiggans, are increasingly in play thanks to backlash to Elon Musk's government cost-cutting frenzy — both have significant military populations. A possible top recruit is emerging: Pamela Northam, the former first lady of Virginia, has been approached to run for Kiggans' seat in the Hampton Roads area, according to two people familiar with those efforts, granted anonymity to discuss private conversations.
All this comes amid a punishing week for Republicans that saw the stock market crater after President Donald Trump rolled out tariffs and as his officials continue to face tough questions on the 'Signalgate' debacle. Democrats are sensing an opening, and hoping to extend the momentum by recruiting candidates who might be newly energized to run.
'People are upset. If you can channel that, use it for the right energy, run a strong campaign, get out there to the people — I think you can win here in Iowa,' said J.D. Scholten, a Democrat who had been leaning against challenging Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) until Tuesday's elections. Now, he said, he's 50-50 on another run in a state where a Democrat hasn't held a Senate seat since 2015.
House Democratic operatives have also reported an increasing openness from prospective Midwest candidates in Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin over the past few weeks. And the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee notes that based on Tuesday's margins in Florida there are roughly 40 additional offensive targets that House Democrats could go after in the midterms.
House Majority PAC, Democrats' top outside group focused on congressional races, reported 'a tremendous amount of interest and enthusiasm from potential candidates across the country' in the days leading up to and after Tuesday.
'People have been receptive in the last 48 hours,' said one House Democratic recruiter, who has spoken to candidates in seats as red as R+7 since the special elections.
Meanwhile, previously dejected Democrats are starting to think seriously about mounting campaigns to win the handful of seats required to recapture the House majority.
Among them are former Rep. Andy Levin (D-Mich.), who is weighing a bid for elected office, possibly for the seat currently held by Republican Rep. John James, and Matt Cartwright, another former Democratic House member who is deciding whether to run again for his swing district in northeastern Pennsylvania.
Cartwright called Wisconsin's election results 'very heartening' and said House Republicans made a grave political error when they voted for a budget blueprint that Democrats argue laid the groundwork for cuts to Medicaid. His former opponent, Rep. Rob Bresnahan, was one of them. Cartwright said 200,000 people in his old district depend on the program.
At least two possible candidates have first-hand experience with the upheaval caused by the Trump administration.
Ryan Crosswell, a former federal prosecutor who stepped down after the Department of Justice moved to drop charges against New York Mayor Eric Adams, is considering running against freshman Rep. Ryan Mackenzie in Pennsylvania, according to a person familiar with his thinking. Crosswell declined to comment.
Andrew Lennox, a veteran who briefly
lost his job at Veterans Affairs' hospital in Ann Arbor
, thanks to Musk's Department of Government Efficiency, is mulling a run for GOP Rep. Tom Barrett's seat in Michigan. Lennox, a guest of Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) at Trump's address to Congress, said the elections on Tuesday and Sen. Cory Booker's record-breaking speech left him inspired.
'People actually beat billionaires,' he said. 'Seeing that happen, that was a breath of fresh air. And maybe there is some hope out there that this isn't over.'
State Sen. Sarah Anthony is another potential candidate to take on Barrett. And in Des Moines, state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott, an ordained minister, and state Rep. Jennifer Konfrst are both considering runs against Nunn, according to two people familiar with their thinking.
Bob Harvie, a county commissioner in the Philadelphia suburbs, launched a bid against Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) this week after having conversations with the DCCC, according to a person familiar with the communications.
And while Susan Wild, a former Democratic House member who represented a swing district in Pennsylvania's Lehigh Valley, told POLITICO she is not running in 2026, she is working hard 'to make sure we have a really solid Democratic nominee' for her old seat.
'It's got to make people more interested,' she said of this week's election results, adding that Trump's tariffs and other factors are also making the political environment more favorable to Democrats. 'People who are contemplating running are saying, 'You know, I think even these tough districts we could flip.''
However, she cautioned Democrats not to overreach. She said Republican-plus-10 districts are difficult, and the party shouldn't pursue them except in special cases.
'If they get ahead of themselves, if they get cocky about this, then the frontliners are gonna be really hurting,' she said, referring to the party's vulnerable House incumbents.
In New Jersey, for example, Democrats would love to oust Republican Rep. Jeff Van Drew, a former Democrat who switched his affiliation in 2019, but not at the expense of easier targets.
Michael Suleiman, chair of the Atlantic County Democrats, acknowledged that the district 'could be in play if we had a strong candidate.' But he cautioned that the top two priorities for New Jersey Democrats in 2026 are to protect freshman Democratic Rep. Nellie Pou and oust GOP Rep. Tom Kean Jr., both sitting in districts that Trump won by a little more than 1 percentage point. By contrast, he carried Van Drew's district by nearly 13 percentage points.
And Democrats are still sizing up the impact of a shift among minority voters toward Trump in the 2024 election. Latino-heavy districts in particular moved to the right at the presidential level
even as their voters picked Democratic congressional candidates last fall
. Democrats are betting that shift was Trump-centric, but the GOP believes they will make even more inroads with Latinos down-ballot.
'Democrats are flailing with no vision, no leader, no message. This is just the latest Hail Mary from a party in freefall,' said Mike Marinella, a spokesperson for the House GOP campaign arm. 'While they chase fantasies, we'll keep exposing them for being out of touch and crush them again in 2026.'
But Democrats involved in flipping the House in the 2018 wave recalled that strong candidates in tough-to-win seats were a crucial part of their recipe for success. Formidable Democratic nominees like Kendra Horn in Oklahoma, Joe Cunningham in South Carolina and Ben McAdams in Utah were able to parlay a favorable political environment into wins in deep-red districts.
Veterans of that cycle said it pays dividends to recruit in longshot seats.
'I'd go as deep as R-plus-10, at least,' said Meredith Kelly, the top spokesperson for the DCCC during the 2018 cycle. 'Put the surfboards in the water, you never know what's going to come.'
Madison Fernandez and Elena Schneider contributed to this report.