A golden visa rescue plan
Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra suggested the country create a golden visa scheme for wealthy foreigners to become long-term residents to boost the kingdom's sluggish economy.
The golden visa scheme could potentially bring in the equivalent of Thailand's US$500bil (RM2.12 trillion) economy, Thaksin said in a speech at the 'Unlocking Thailand's Future' conference in Bangkok.
He suggested the country could attract 600,000 people who would deposit US$1mil (RM4.24mil) apiece for the visa. In return, they'd get rights to buy property in Thailand, helping the real estate sector, with the proceeds to fund education for Thai people.
'It will drive GDP growth, reduce public debt, spur domestic consumption,' Thaksin said. 'It's new, fresh money, and so worth pursuing.'
Thaksin retains significant influence with policymakers through the ruling Pheu Thai party, helmed by his daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra, despite having no formal title in the government.
His speech to business people on how to invigorate growth comes after the Constitutional Court recently suspended Paetongtarn as prime minister while it deliberates on an alleged ethics violation case involving her handling of a border dispute.
Thaksin has his own legal troubles, including a decade-old royal defamation case that is due to be ruled on next month. He remains confident he will be found innocent, he told the seminar.
Thailand's economy, which relies heavily on exports and tourism, has expanded at an average of under 2% over the past decade, trailing other major South-East Asian economies.
Gross domestic product will likely grow 1.3% to 2.3% in 2025, constrained by high household debt and slowing tourist arrivals, while the economy is also at risk of a 36% tariff from the United States, its largest export market.
Earlier this week, Thailand's Tourism Authority lowered its forecast for foreign tourist arrivals in 2025 to 35 million from 40 million, with Chinese visitors falling short of projections.
Only 2.3 million Chinese visitors came to Thailand in the first half of 2025, compared with 3.4 million a year earlier, according to government data.
News of a Chinese actor's kidnapping to Myanmar through Thailand increased safety concerns, said Thaksin, who suggested that he would personally insure any Chinese travellers to Thailand in order to win their confidence. — Bloomberg
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More than 85 per cent of those surveyed said they preferred maintaining the status quo, including 36 per cent favouring its permanent preservation. Lessons from Hong Kong In Beijing's latest official white paper on Taiwan in 2022, it credited the implementation of the one country, two system concept in Hong Kong as a 'resounding success'. But in policy discussions, mainland intellectuals said the city offered a number of lessons for the potential governance of Taiwan. A paper by Wu Libin, associate professor at Sun Yat-sen University in Guangzhou, published in 2022, argues that Taiwan should be granted authorised autonomy – similar to Hong Kong's model – to give Beijing 'greater flexibility and legal grounds' to intervene when necessary or otherwise risk 'overly rigid constraints on central authority'. A paper published last year, written by Zhang Jian, a senior research fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, suggested the framework should implement the idea of 'patriots governing Taiwan', a view also seen in several other studies. Beijing responded to Hong Kong's months-long anti-government protests in 2019 by imposing a national security law on the city, followed by an overhaul of the electoral system to ensure social stability and safeguard national security, with the principle of only patriots ruling the city. Zhang argues that the governance plan for Taiwan 'should include sound legislation on central authorities' powers in areas such as national defence, the judiciary, education and national security'. 'The experience and lessons from the Hong Kong case show that relevant laws must be designed and established before reunification to ensure that after reunification the central government's powers are protected through strong legal frameworks,' Zhang argued. Another study published this year by scholars from Xiamen University cited the national security law in Hong Kong, suggesting that efforts should focus on introducing a new criminal law in Taiwan to target separatist activities. Non-peaceful means While most of the papers in the journals focus on peaceful reunification, there is a rising number of studies mentioning the possibility of non-peaceful scenarios. Many discussed the Anti-Secession Law that provides a legal framework for Beijing to use non-peaceful means. In general, a search on CNKI identifies 76 papers published since 2019 mentioning non-peaceful options compared to 21 papers published between 2013 and 2018. There is no clearly stated reason, but it could be a reflection of the perceived threat by Beijing of the growing risks of separatist movements in Taiwan and the attempt by the US and its allies to use the issue to destabilise China. A closer review finds at least six studies published since 2022 that feature more detailed discussion. Two specifically focus on the premise of non-peaceful scenarios and suggest detailed proposals – including deploying People's Liberation Army (PLA) forces to the island. Since Taiwanese leader William Lai Ching-te took office in May last year, he has repeatedly asserted that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait 'are not subordinate to each other', drawing fierce condemnation from Beijing – especially after he described mainland China in March as a 'foreign hostile force', an unprecedented escalation in cross-strait rhetoric. Amid heightened tensions, a paper by a mainland researcher published this year on non-peaceful means attracted attention. Wang Heting, a professor at Soochow University's Marxism school, wrote that Beijing could choose a moment to revive 'civil war operations' against Taiwan and impose 'direct governance' over the island during that time. Mainland China and Taiwan split in 1949 at the end of a civil war when the Kuomintang was defeated by Communist Party forces and fled to Taipei. Beijing regards Taiwan as part of its territory, to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the United States, do not recognise the island as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any unilateral change to the status quo and is also committed to providing weapons to Taipei for the island's defence. Wang suggested that Beijing could blockade Taiwan's ports, airspace, cyberspace and surrounding seas to prevent the conflict from escalating externally and to cut off foreign help. A trade embargo could block military supplies, and any Taiwanese or foreign vessels and aircraft violating the embargo could be confiscated. In another paper published in 2023, the author Zhu Lei, a professor at Minnan Normal University, argued that the governance framework for Taiwan must be significantly more strict under non-peaceful scenarios. Regarding security, Taiwan's military would be restructured and the PLA would be stationed in Taiwan and take primary responsibility for the island's defence, while the restructured local force would mainly manage social order. Zhu suggested introducing a decades-long transitional period in which Taiwan would retain its capitalist system under which the state would not play the chief role in the economy and public life – unlike the system on the mainland. He said Taiwan would be granted greater autonomy than that of ethnic minority autonomous regions, which include Tibet and Xinjiang, but slightly less than Hong Kong and Macau, arguing that 'the treatment granted through non-peaceful reunification must never exceed that of peaceful reunification, otherwise it would amount to encouraging resistance'. He also suggested local governance should be carried out by 'the virtuous', which he defined as those supporting reunification. Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in the US, observed that these publications appeared to aim at helping manage perceptions of post-conflict stability. 'These academic papers authored by government-affiliated experts and approved for publication in leading journals signal a shift in [Beijing's] Taiwan policy from preventing independence to promoting reunification,' Zhao said. 'They shape domestic and international narratives to legitimise non-peaceful reunification while mitigating concerns about prolonged chaos and massive destruction.' He added that the discussions could convey a coercive message to Taiwan's ruling party and its supporters, and influence public opinion in Taiwan. 'Publishing these discussions in academic journals, rather than through official government statements, allows [Beijing] to advance these objectives while maintaining plausible deniability regarding official policy endorsement.' Yun Sun, director of the China programme at the Washington-based Stimson Centre, said the discussions reflected 'the reality that since 2019, US-China relations have deteriorated at an accelerated rate, and the notion of a Taiwan contingency has become increasingly real'. 'Since most of the military planning cannot be discussed in the open, discussion about the future political arrangement over Taiwan becomes both needed and desired,' Sun said. 'This does not mean that China is close to [attacking] Taiwan militarily. 'Preventing independence and promoting reunification are the two sides of the same coin as long as [the Democratic Progressive Party] is in power. At the current state, Taiwanese people will not embrace reunification willingly, so the only viable option is by force if China believes that it can deter US military intervention.' Limits Some analysts say these discussions among mainland scholars will remain reference points for Beijing but have limited influence. Zhu Songling, a professor at the Institute of Taiwan Studies at Beijing Union University, noted that since 2019 there had been increasing attention paid to the governance framework for Taiwan, with two major projects set up under the National Social Science Fund – a major source of funding for social science research in mainland China. However, he said, there was more work to be done. 'Since one country, two systems is a relatively new concept [that has only been tested in Hong Kong and Macau], it holds vast theoretical and practical potential, with much space still to be explored.' Zhu also said 'there remains a possibility that the plan for Taiwan will differ significantly from the model in Hong Kong and Macau' because of differences between the regions. 'Due to historical reasons, the Hong Kong and Macau arrangements were formed through negotiations and implemented along with practices. Exactly how the plan for Taiwan should be studied and implemented still requires exploratory advancement through practice.' Li Fei, a Taiwan studies specialist at Xiamen University, also noted that academic discussions 'provide a reference for decision-making' but planning had 'to be constantly adjusted according to changes in the situation'. However, according to one analyst, the prospect of Beijing's possible governance plan for Taiwan is losing appeal, creating major problems. Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, suggested that any proposal from Beijing lacking credible self-restraint was unlikely to appeal to Taiwan. He said that meanwhile, military pressure and coercive tactics, such as the drills, espionage cases and disinformation campaigns, had only deepened distrust and resistance in Taiwan. Beijing, however, has blamed the Taiwanese authorities for provoking the hostility and said its action was in response to such action. The central government has vowed to unwaveringly uphold the rights to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity if 'Taiwan independence elements do not stop their provocations'. Zhu Fenglian, a spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, earlier said that the mainland's military drills around Taiwan served as a resolute warning to 'instigators of war' and were not aimed at Taiwanese people. -- SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
