New polling suggests similar result to 2022 election as other polls may ‘miss' the mark
RedBridge Group Director Kos Samaras says polling data suggests the 2025 Federal election will be similar to the one in 2022.
'This is the thing about every poll, you know, including our own, the Labor primary is a little bit above what it was in 2022, the Coalition primary is about the same, so mid-30s, Labor primary low-30s' Mr Samaras said.
'Some of the polls are going to miss out reading what's going to happen in certain seats.
'I don't think we're doing justice to those Australians who are planning to vote for other minor parties by basically just looking at that two party preferred vote for both majors.'

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West Australian
33 minutes ago
- West Australian
Anthony Albanese's Government to convene at roundtable to hatch plan to propel Australia into stronger future
Business groups are cautiously optimistic about a productivity roundtable Treasurer Jim Chalmers will host but will head in eyes wide open after feeling like they were burned by the outcomes of Labor's first-term jobs and skills summit. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced on Tuesday the Government would convene the roundtable in August to hear ideas from all quarters about how to tackle stagnating productivity and propel Australia into a stronger future. 'We want to build the broadest possible base of support for further economic reform to drive growth, boost productivity, strengthen the budget and secure the resilience of our economy, in a time of global uncertainty,' he told the National Press Club in a speech laying out his second-term agenda. 'We will be respectful. We want people to participate in the spirit of goodwill in which we're making this suggestion.' Dr Chalmers has labelled flatlining productivity one of the biggest challenges Australia faces. He's already tasked the Productivity Commission to do a sweeping review of how best to tackle the long-run challenges, with 15 priority areas now under closer exploration. Business groups have welcomed the focus, with Ai Group chief executive Innes Willox lamenting the fact boosting productivity was barely mentioned during the election. 'Current policy settings at both national and state levels are clearly not working. This summit is therefore ideally timed, and needs to focus on immediate reforms that can promptly turn our productivity performance around,' Mr Willox said. But there is caution after the September 2022 jobs and skills summit was used to rubber-stamp industrial relations changes that industry says are now hampering productivity. Mr Albanese said that, as a Labor prime minister, he would always support unions existing but he respected the role of business too, pointing out there wouldn't be any union members without successful employers. He insisted he wasn't pre-empting any outcomes but wanted genuine discussion around where there were win-wins on productivity. 'I want people to be able to have a discussion … without screaming headlines saying, you know, this is going to happen because someone has raised it,' he said. Business Council of Australia head Bran Black said his organisation was already working with groups across society on ideas to boost productivity in order to drive up living standards for Australians. 'These policies include red tape reduction, faster approvals on major projects, harnessing the potential of AI, advancing research and development, undertaking broad tax reform, unlocking more trade and investment and delivering the energy transition,' he said. 'At the same time, we will continue to be very clear about policies that the business community believes will be counterproductive to improving productivity.' Shadow treasurer Ted O'Brien and shadow productivity minister Andrew Bragg said the proposal sounded like a talkfest and came after the Prime Minister had 'saddled the economy with thousands of new regulations in the last Parliament'. 'If this change of heart by Labor is true, it will be akin to turning around the Titanic,' they said in a joining statement, while insisting they were open to being constructive. Senator Bragg has already written to major industry associations seeking suggestions for deregulation as the Coalition shapes its policy agenda in the new term. It's unclear yet if the Coalition will be invited to the roundtable. HOUSING A key sector where the productivity stagnation is hurting Australians is housing, where the slowdown in construction has led to a supply and affordability crisis. Mr Albanese said plainly it was 'too hard' to build houses and governments had to work together to make it easier. 'Developers say that it's just too complex, (that) adds to costs as well,' he said, taking aim at 'unnecessary regulation'. 'I want to make sure that housing is fit for purpose and all of that. But if we can cut through on some of the red tape, then that will reduce costs.' Across the board, governments had to do the basics better, target duplication of processes and remove barriers to investment. But Mr Albanese also said there were some challenges where governments had to step up, not back, such as speeding up infrastructure builds and investing more in education and skills. DEFENCE Mr Albanese travels to Fiji, the US and Canada later this week for the G7 leaders' summit and an anticipated meeting with US President Donald Trump. Ahead of the expected discussions, he has faced repeated questions about Australia's spending on defence after the Trump administration made it clear it wants its partners to step up. The Prime Minister has resisted nominating a target level of GDP but insisted on Tuesday he would always support any requests for more money for specific capabilities. 'Arbitrary figures … lead to a cul-de-sac. And we want to make sure as well that every single dollar that Defence spends results in actual assets,' he said. 'We will always provide for capability that's needed.' He reiterated his red lines in any discussion with Mr Trump, saying he wouldn't budge on the under-16s social media ban, biosecurity, subsidised pharmaceuticals or plans to make large tech companies pay for news content. POLITICAL CULTURE Mr Albanese also urged people to 'chill out' about old social media posts made by aspiring political candidates. He revealed Labor doesn't go through its candidates' old posts, saying it was up to individuals to be accountable for what they had said or done in the past but also there had to be a recognition that the world had changed with the advent of social media. 'If people are held to account for what a 21-year-old has on social media in 10 years' time, then we won't have anyone willing to put their hand up in public life,' he warned. 'I understand the pressures that young people are under, which is very different from the pressures that were on (older generations)... I wouldn't particularly appreciate everything being documented when I was in young Labor, let me tell you.' Mr Albanese said he was focused now on delivering what Labor had promised people at the election because he believed ensuring people's interactions with government went smoothly was key to boosting faith in democracy. To aid this delivery, he announced Steven Kennedy would move from Treasury to head up his department while Jenny Wilkinson, who has been running the Finance Department, will become the first female Treasury secretary. He pledged to continue a consultative style in Parliament, revealing he had already met with new Opposition Leader Sussan Ley and Nationals leader David Littleproud. 'We have 94 votes, but that actually doesn't make a difference compared with 78 – because 78 wins and 94 wins (in the lower house),' he said. 'You don't win bigger, you win, you pass legislation.'


Perth Now
an hour ago
- Perth Now
State on edge over potential snap election call
Tasmania is in a state of political limbo, with the island's governor considering "all available options" before potentially approving a snap election. Embattled Liberal minority Premier Jeremy Rockliff on Tuesday evening visited Governor Barbara Baker to formally request an early poll. Mr Rockliff lost a no-confidence motion in parliament on Thursday, but has refused to stand down as convention dictates, instead vowing to take Tasmania back to the ballot box. In a statement, Ms Baker's secretary said she would take "the time necessary to give due consideration to all available options". "By the end of the week the premier will meet with Her Excellency again. Further statements will be made in due course," the secretary said. Mr Rockliff said he respected Ms Baker's stance and he remained committed to serving the people of Tasmania. The Liberals, who hold 14 of 35 lower-house seats, have governed in minority since being returned to power at the March 2024 poll. Ms Baker could direct the Liberals to find another leader to avoid an election, or ask Labor opposition leader Dean Winter to try to form a workable government. However, Mr Winter's party, which holds just 10 seats, has ruled out an alliance with the Greens to form a minority. Labor brought forward the no-confidence motion in Mr Rockliff because of his budget "mismanagement" and delays and cost blowouts to new Bass Strait ferries. The motion was passed with support from the Greens and three crossbench independents. Battle lines for an election have already been drawn, with the Liberals abandoning potential state asset sales and announcing former federal MP Bridget Archer was prepared to run. If an election is called, it would be Tasmania's fourth in the space of seven years.

Sky News AU
2 hours ago
- Sky News AU
Foreign Minister Penny Wong reveals Australian sanctions against Israeli Ministers for 'inciting violence against Palestinians'
Foreign Minister Penny Wong has announced the Australian government will officially sanction two Israeli Ministers for "inciting violence against Palestinians in the West Bank". In a late night press release, Senator Wong revealed Australia, alongside Canada, New Zealand, Norway, and the United Kingdom, had moved to impose sanctions on Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. Mr Ben-Gvir acts as Israel's National Security Minister and Mr Smotrich as the nation's Finance Minister. Both are among the hardline, pro-settlement faction with the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and have repeatedly advocated for Israel to expand its controversial operations in the West Bank. In the Foreign Minister's statement, both Ministers are accused of encouraging settler violence toward Palestinians in the territory, with the Australian government freezing assets linked to the pair in the country as well as imposing travel bans. "Settler violence is incited by extremist rhetoric which calls for Palestinians to be driven from their homes, encourages violence and human rights abuses and fundamentally rejects the two-state solution," the statement read. "Settler violence has led to the deaths of Palestinian civilians and the displacement of whole communities. "Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich have incited extremist violence and serious abuses of Palestinian human rights. "Extremist rhetoric advocating the forced displacement of Palestinians and the creation of new Israeli settlements is appalling and dangerous. These actions are not acceptable." The move is likely to spark outrage in Israel, which has long defended its actions in the West Bank despite international pressure to end the construction of illegal settlements in the region. It is also set to place further scrutiny on Labor, which has come under intense criticism from Jewish groups over its response to the war in Gaza and the rise of antisemitic incidents in Australia. The government was quick to claim its decision did not detract from its support of Israel, with the statement adding Australia wanted to continue "a strong friendship with the people of Israel based on our shared ties, values and commitment to their security and future". "The measures announced today do not deviate from our unwavering support for Israel's security and we continue to condemn the horrific terror attacks of 7 October by Hamas," the statement read. "Today's measures are targeted towards individuals who in our view undermine Israel's own security and its standing in the world." This is a developing story, more to come.