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European stocks poised to open higher as earnings hold spotlight

European stocks poised to open higher as earnings hold spotlight

CNBCa day ago
A small replica of the Charging Bull statue is seen on a street vendor stall outside the New York Stock Exchange on July 11, 2025.
Jeenah Moon | Reuters
Optimistic sentiment on the U.S. economy has been fueling a flurry of positive trading across the globe. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 closed at am all-time high on Thursday, while the Nasdaq Composite also hit a record high.
Better-than-expected earnings from Netflix , PepsiCo , United Airlines also helped lift U.S. indexes higher.
Overnight in the Asia-Pacific region, Australian stocks reached a record high after rising unemployment figures fueled bets of a rate cut from the country's central bank. Investors in the region were also reacting to a cooling inflation print out of Japan.
In Europe, investors are still monitoring trade tensions between the European Union and the United States.
— Chloe Taylor
Shomos Uddin | Moment | Getty Images
Good morning from London.
European stocks look set to move higher at Friday's opening bell. Futures tied to the Euro Stoxx 50 were last seen 0.35% higher.
Those tied to Germany's DAX index are around 0.45% higher, while futures tied to London's FTSE 100 were last seen up by 0.3%.
— Chloe Taylor
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These 14 new NYC restaurants were just added to the Michelin Guide

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An early lesson from this earnings season: Don't judge the quarter too quickly
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Yahoo

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The Saturday Spread: Using Science to Pinpoint Empirically Enticing Trades in WMT, OKTA and RCAT

It's the one question that the financial publication industry consistently refuses to answer: how likely is it that the broadcasted thesis happened because of the signal or undervaluation and not just by random chance? Pretty much all finpub articles offer an investment or trading idea; otherwise, what would be the point of reading the material? If there was no edge to be found, then you should simply put your money into the benchmark S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and call it a day. But instead, the concept of reading financial analyses is to extract alpha — generating returns that exceed what you'd expect from passive exposure to a broader index. More News from Barchart Netflix Produces Strong Q2 FCF, But NFLX Stock Dips - Is It a Buy Here? AMZN Trade Idea: Capture Gains Without Chasing the Stock AMC Entertainment's Unusual Options Activity Sets Up for a Long Straddle. Should You Bite? Get exclusive insights with the FREE Barchart Brief newsletter. Subscribe now for quick, incisive midday market analysis you won't find anywhere else. But you can't just extract alpha without understanding what you are benchmarking against. And that's the point of the null hypothesis. In the financial realm, the null hypothesis is the assumption that there is no mispricing. Put another way, whether you read the finpub article in question or not, your performance will not deviate statistically from what is expected. By logical deduction, our job as analysts is to reject the null; specifically, that the alternative hypothesis that we present is not just a materialization of random noise but an empirically meaningful signal. To determine this meaningfulness, analysts should run a binomial test, which helps narrow down truly interesting ideas from typical price discovery chaos. However, looking at share prices or their derivatives for recurring patterns represents a gargantuan task. 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Still, what's most intriguing is that in 76.47% of cases, the following week's price action results in upside, with a median return of 1%. On Friday, WMT stock closed at $95.05, meaning that if the implications of the 6-4-D sequence pan out, it could hit $96 soon, perhaps in a week. Should the bulls maintain control of the market over the next three to four weeks, a push toward $96.55, perhaps even $97, may be on the cards based on past analogs. The null hypothesis in this case is the baseline probability of WMT stock assuming no unusual mispricing, which is 57.02%. However, the much higher probability of the 6-4-D sequence — which has an empirically intriguing p-value of 0.0819 (implying 91.81% confidence that the signal isn't random) — incentivizes a debit-based options strategy. With that in mind, aggressive speculators may consider the 95/97bull call spread expiring Aug. 8. Barchart Premier members can quickly pinpoint the most viable trades, thereby eliminating much of the guesswork involved in options trading. The above transaction involves buying the $95 call and simultaneously selling the $97 call, for a net debit paid of $93. Should WMT stock rise through the short strike price at expiration, the maximum reward stands at $107, a payout of 115%. Okta (OKTA) Another intriguing idea that popped on the quantitative radar is Oka (OKTA), an identity and access management company. While OKTA stock has been a strong performer, gaining over 21% on a year-to-date basis, it has also been a choppy name. For example, in the trailing month, the security is down 4%. Still, this may open up a trading opportunity. In the past two months, OKTA stock has printed a 4-6-D sequence: four up weeks, six down weeks, negative trajectory. Since January 2019, this particular sequence has occurred 37 times. Ordinarily, it would be associated with pessimism given the greater balance of distributive sessions, along with the negative trajectory. However, in 64.86% of cases, the following week's price action results in upside, with a median return of 4.93%. Should the bulls maintain control for the next three weeks, investors may see an added performance boost of 2.06%. With OKTA closing at $95.43 on Friday, it could potentially be on pace to exceed $102 over the next few weeks. Here, the null hypothesis is a baseline probability of 52.63%. Further, the 4-6-D sequence runs a p-value of only 0.0917. All things considered, the framework incentivizes a debit-based strategy. With that said, speculators may consider the 97.50/100 bull call spread expiring Aug. 15. This trade requires a net debit of $96, with a gargantuan payout of over 160%. Red Cat (RCAT) Defense contractor Red Cat (RCAT) — which specializes in advanced solutions such as reconnaissance drones — is fundamentally intriguing for obvious reasons if you've been keeping pace with geopolitical news. However, it's also risky. RCAT stock is down more than 12% YTD and that's including the 30% lift in the trailing five sessions. If choppiness isn't your thing, you may want to look elsewhere. Here's the thing, though. In the past two months, RCAT stock has printed a 6-4-U sequence: six up weeks, four down weeks, positive trajectory. Since January 2019, this sequence has materialized 44 times. With RCAT, the higher balance of accumulative sessions tends to attract more bullish behavior. Therefore, in 56.82% of cases, the following week's price action results in upside, with a median return of 9.31%. On the surface, that might not seem like a significant edge. However, RCAT's null hypothesis is a baseline probability of 45.32%. Given that the security natively features a negative bias, it's enticing that the 6-4-U sequence tilts the odds firmly in the bulls' favor. This signal has a p-value of 0.1398, which is higher than the rest. However, given the open-system nature of the stock market, it's arguably empirically intriguing. Those who really want to swing for the fences may consider the 11/12 bull call spread expiring Aug. 15. This trade requires a net debit of $40, with a max payout of 150%. On the date of publication, Josh Enomoto did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

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