Based on history, Northeast could be overdue for hurricane

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1 of 2 | Storm surge from Hurricane Carol batters the coast of Connecticut in August 1954. Photo courtesy NOAA
It's been more than three decades since a true hurricane made landfall in the Northeast and over 70 years since a major one did.
While Florida and the Gulf Coast face frequent hits, New England states have largely escaped direct strikes in recent memory. But history, science and a handful of close calls tell a different story: This region isn't immune, it's overdue.
"The Northeast is climatologically overdue for a direct hurricane landfall," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said. "This kind of storm will happen again in New England it's just a question of when. People have to be prepared."
A long stretch without a landfalling hurricane doesn't mean the risk has gone away. In fact, meteorologists say the odds of another major hurricane hitting the Northeast are about 1.5 in any given year. This is about the same chance of flipping a coin and getting the same result 6 times in a row.
"Typically, every 15 to 20 years on average, a hurricane will strike New Jersey on northward into southern New England. A major hurricane -- so that's Category 3 or higher-for the Northeast is every 60 to 70 years or so," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva explained.
A history of Northeast hurricanes
Even if direct hits are rare, the Northeast has a long history of being impacted by powerful hurricanes. It was more than three decades ago, on Aug. 19, 1991, that Hurricane Bob roared into Rhode Island with sustained winds over 100 mph. It tore through New England with deadly storm surge and widespread power outages, causing more than $1.5 billion in damage at the time-or $3.46 billion today.
Sandy made landfall in New Jersey in 2012 and, while public sources classified Sandy as "post-tropical," AccuWeather continued calling it a hurricane, knowing people respond more urgently to hurricane warnings than to routine coastal flood alerts. In addition to the coastal damage, Sandy also brought blizzard conditions into the central Appalachians.
Other famous hurricanes striking the Northeast include Hurricane Carol, which made landfall on Long Island as a Category 3 storm on Aug. 13, 1954. Just 11 days after Carol, Hurricane Edna hit Massachusetts and later resulted in the heaviest day of rainfall in New York City in 45 years, while strong waves cut off Montauk from the rest of Long Island. A few years later, Hurricane Donna also struck Long Island as a Category 2 storm on Sept. 12, 1960.
The biggest hurricane on record to make landfall in the Northeast was the so-called "Long Island Express" Hurricane of 1938. The storm remains the most catastrophic hurricane on record for the region.
While not every storm strikes at peak strength, even weakening hurricanes or post-tropical systems can unleash devastating impacts.
"Most of the time, the Northeast gets impacted by a storm as it is losing wind intensity and becoming a tropical rainstorm," DaSilva said. "But tropical rainstorms have a history of producing deadly flooding well inland, especially in areas of steep terrain such as in parts of New England."
In 2024, after landfall in Texas, the confluence of Hurricane Beryl's moisture and a warm front led to 42 tornado warnings across New York state on July 10, setting a single-day record for the most warnings in the state.
Hurricane Ida made landfall in Louisiana in 2021, then weakened as it moved northeast. The storm flooded parts of several states, including Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York as it accelerated through the United States. Radar estimates of 10 to 12 inches were recorded in some areas around New York City, flooding basements and trapping people inside.
Tropical Storm Henri, which made landfall in Rhode Island on Aug. 22, 2021, caused significant damage across the northeastern United States, mainly due to flooding and power outages.
Tropical Storm Isaias brought long-lasting and damaging winds to southern New England in 2020.
Why most hurricanes don't reach New England
Ocean temperatures play a major role. As hurricanes move north of the Outer Banks of North Carolina, they often encounter cooler waters that lack the heat energy needed to sustain them.
"You typically need sea-surface temperatures around 80 degrees Fahrenheit to support a hurricane," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva explained. "Off the coast of New England, the water usually isn't warm enough to maintain storm strength."
That's where speed becomes critical-a fast-moving storm has a better chance of crossing cooler waters before it begins to weaken.
Wind shear is another limiting factor. These fast-changing winds at different altitudes can disrupt a storm's structure and cause it to fall apart.
"Wind shear tends to increase with latitude," DaSilva said, "and if it's too strong, the storm won't hold together." The presence of dry air can also interfere, getting drawn into the storm's circulation and weakening it further.
Even with all those hurdles, a hurricane can still make it-if the setup is just right.
"A perfect setup": What steers a hurricane into the Northeast?
By the time a hurricane makes it past the Carolinas, it's already traveled hundreds of miles over warm tropical waters. But as it climbs northward, the ocean begins to turn against it. Off the coast of the mid-Atlantic and New England, lower sea-surface temperatures act like a natural speed bump, robbing storms of the fuel they need to survive.
For a hurricane to reach the Northeast, several large-scale weather patterns have to align at the same time.
"You pretty much need a perfect setup to get the perfect storm into New England," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said. "Compared to the Carolinas or the Gulf Coast, conditions can be off a little, and they still get hit hard. But for the Northeast, everything has to line up perfectly."
Three major atmospheric forces play a key role in steering a storm toward landfall from New Jersey to Maine: a Bermuda High in the right place, a dip in the jet stream over the East Coast and a blocking high over eastern Canada.
"First and foremost, you need a strong Bermuda High," DaSilva said. "You need that Bermuda High to bulge a little bit farther to the west, but not too strong. If it's too strong, the storms just get pushed all the way into the United States, into either the Southeast or into the Gulf. If it's too weak, the storms rotate around the Bermuda High and go out to sea."
If the high is just right, the next piece is the jet stream.
"You need a big dip in the jet stream to come into the East Coast. What that does is it will essentially grab the storm and put it on a pathway going north," DaSilva said.
"An upper-level trough coming through the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley-at the same time, you have the Bermuda Ridge over the central Atlantic. It has to come right smack in between," Pastelok added.
But even that's not enough.
"You also need a blocking high over eastern Canada that shuts off the storm's escape path and locks it on a collision course for the Northeast," DaSilva said.
And then there's the speed.
"The 1938 hurricane was moving at between 50 and 55 miles per hour by the time it hit Long Island. That allowed the storm to have so much power, even though it was moving over cooler water. The speed of the storm allowed it to maintain much of its intensity upon reaching Long Island and southern New England."
A weather map shows the 1938 Hurricane on its way to landfall on Long Island. (NOAA)
"Water temperatures definitely help," Pastelok said. "If they're still warm, it'll maintain a storm's intensity as it heads to New England. If the water is cooler, you'll see bigger drop-offs in intensity. We saw that with Gloria in 1985. It hit Long Island, but it was already losing wind intensity when it made landfall."
What if the 1938 hurricane hit today?
The Long Island Express moved at nearly highway speed and dropped up to 2 feet of rain in areas, causing between $250 and $450 million in damage in 1938-equivalent to roughly $6 to $10 billion in today's dollars.
If a similar storm hit today, the impacts could be even more severe.
"If the Great New England Hurricane of 1938 were to happen today, AccuWeather experts estimate the total damage and economic loss would reach $440 billion," Porter explained. "To put that staggering price tag into perspective, AccuWeather estimates the total damage and economic loss from Hurricane Katrina was $320 billion, adjusted for inflation today."
Many more people live on the coast now than they did in 1938 and even in 1991 during Hurricane Bob, DaSilva said. "I am very worried, especially with sea level rise that, even during nor'easters, you see the ocean threatening houses, so storm surge from a hurricane could be catastrophic."
Stronger storms in a warmer world?
Although warning systems have dramatically improved, storm surge, flooding and tree damage could all have a larger impact due to a much larger population and higher water levels.
"There would be a lot of tree damage. That's going to happen again along with rising rivers," DaSilva said. "Plus massive coastal destruction as the sea level rise has occurred over the last 70 years."
There's no sign that hurricanes are becoming more or less likely to hit the region, but with warming ocean temperatures, a future storm could be stronger than those in the past, DaSilva explained.