Gold likely to remain rangebound in H2, to close up to 5% higher: World Gold Council
The surge in gold was led by couple of influential factors - A weaker US dollar played a central role, making dollar-denominated assets like commodities more attractive to global investors. Simultaneously, bond yields remained rangebound as markets began pricing in the possibility of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, fueling optimism for a more accommodative monetary stance. Adding to the complexity were heightened geopolitical tensions—many of which stemmed directly or indirectly from US trade policies—contributing to global uncertainty and prompting a shift toward safer investment avenues.
According to Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2025 report by World Gold Council (WGC), a stronger demand also came from increased trading activity across OTC markets, exchanges, and ETFs.
Gold ETF demand was particularly strong in the first half of the year, led by notable inflows from all regions. By the end of H1 the combination of a surging gold price and investor flight to safety pushed global gold ETF's total AUM 41 per cent higher to $383 billion, as per the report.
' Total holdings rose by an impressive 397t (equivalent to US$38bn) to 3,616t – the highest month-end level since August 2022,' the report read.
As per the WGC report, gold could remain rangebound in H2, closing roughly 0 per cent–5 per cent higher than current levels.
' Technical indicators suggest that gold's consolidation phase over the past few months is a healthy pause in a broader uptrend, helping to ease previous overbought conditions and potentially setting the stage for renewed upside,' it said.
The report further said that the falling interest rates and continued uncertainty would maintain investor appetite, particularly via gold ETFs and OTC transactions. At the same time, central bank demand is likely to remain robust in 2025, moderating from its previous records while staying well above the pre-2022 average of 500-600t.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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