Pacers vs. Thunder Game 1 Predictions: Odds, expert picks, recent stats, trends and best bets for June 5
On Thursday, June 5, the Indiana Pacers (50-32) and Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14) are all set to square off from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City for Game 1 of the NBA Finals.
The Indiana Pacers capped off its magical run with a 4-2 series win over the Knicks at home, giving NBA fans one of the most memorable runs since the Dallas Mavericks in 2011. Indiana beat both Milwaukee and Cleveland in five games apiece before finishing the Knicks off in six.
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On the other hand, the Thunder were the favorite to win the NBA Finals for months and are four wins away from accomplishing this rare feat after sliding by the Timberwolves in five games. Denver did give OKC a run with a seven-game series after the 4-0 sweep in the first round, but that's the only sweat the Thunder have endured lately.
Oklahoma City won both meetings versus Indiana this season by 6 and 21 points (120-114, 132-111). Chet Holmgren did not play in either meeting this season and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 33 and 45 points on the Pacers with 8 assists and 7 rebounds in each game.
We've got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch tipoff, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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Game details & how to watch Pacers vs. Thunder live today
Date: Thursday, June 5, 2025
Time: 8:30PM EST
Site: Paycom Center
City: Oklahoma City, OK
Network/Streaming: ESPN / ABC
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Never miss a second of the action and stay up to date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day NBA schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game.
Game odds for Pacers vs. Thunder
The latest odds as of Thursday:
Odds: Pacers (+320), Thunder (-410)
Spread: Thunder -9
Over/Under: 230.5 points
That gives the Pacers an implied team point total of 110.5, and the Thunder 120.5.
Want to know which sportsbook is offering the best lines for every game on the NBA calendar? Check out the NBC Sports' Live Odds tool to get all the latest updated info from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM & more!
Expert picks & predictions for Thursday's Pacers vs. Thunder game
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas) likes Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 12.5 assists and rebounds (-115):
"This might be a line that goes unnoticed in the first few games of the series. When you think about Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, it's generally how great and effective of a scorer he is. However, SGA grabs boards and when help comes, he's a fantastic facilitator.
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SGA has gone over this number in both meetings the two teams played against each other this season. He also went over in three of the five games in the Western Conference Finals. Sprinkle the double double as well."
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) likes a sprinkle on SGA (+500) and Jalen Williams (+6600) to lead the series in assists:
"Tyrese Haliburton obviously seems like the right choice, but in comparison, the odds say Haliburton is more likely to lead the series in assists than SGA is to win MVP -- I do not agree with that whatsoever.
If Haliburton has two games with 5, 6 assists, or less, like he did in one of two regular season meetings, then this race will be much closer than the odds indicate, so I would sprinkle Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams in this market.
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Both SGA and Williams averaged about 5 and 7 assists per game over the postseason with double-digit potential assists per game. There is a strong potential for double-double or even triple-double opportunities for both OKC stars."
Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.
Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NBA calendar based on data points like recent performance, head-to-head player matchups, trends information and projected game totals.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projections next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for today's Pacers & Thunder game:
Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Indiana Pacers at +9
Total: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Game Total of 230.5
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Want even more NBA best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert NBA Predictions pagefrom NBC Sports for money line, spread and over/under picks for every game on today's calendar!
Important stats, trends & insights to know ahead of Pacers vs. Thunder on Thursday
Oklahoma City is 2-1 on the ML and ATS in Game 1's this postseason
Indiana is 3-0 on the ML and ATS in Game 1's this postseason
Oklahoma City is 8-1 on the ML at home this postseason, while Indiana is 6-2 on the ML as the road team
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won the Western Conference Finals MVP with 31.4 PPG, 8.2 APG, and 5.2 APG
Pascal Siakam won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP with 24.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG, and 3.5 APG
If you're looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our NBA Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!
Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:
- Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
- Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
- Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
- Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)
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The NBA won't finalize its salary cap, luxury tax, and first- and second-tax-apron barriers until June 30, but the sports business website projects the salary cap to be at about $154.6 million, the luxury tax threshold to be about $189 million, the first-apron threshold to be about $195.9 million and the second-apron threshold to be about $207.8 million. Spending over the first and second apron not only requires teams spend more money in luxury tax but each apron also contains restrictions on trades and other player movement that make it more difficult for teams to shape their rosters. The Pacers head into free agency with about $168 million already spoken which puts them well above the salary cap but with about $20 million under the luxury tax and about $27 million under the first apron. The Pacers might be able to shave enough salary with some small moves or by backloading Turner's contract to stay under the first apron which allows more roster flexibility. The cap figures will continue to go up by approximately 10% each year thanks to the NBA's new media contracts so there will be more space to fit Turner in later. The Pacers do have to be smart about that part because Turner will likely get big offers if he hits the open market. Not many teams are under the cap with the ability to put out big-money contracts, but the Detroit Pistons are and after a thrilling loss to the Knicks in the first round of the playoffs, they appear to be interested in adding big men to their roster. Turner seems set on returning to Indiana, but the Pacers still can't risk giving him a low-ball offer because he's aware there could be better out there. If the Pacers opt to keep Turner for about $30 million per year for 4-5 years, they will have their whole starting five locked up through at least the 2026-27 season and two of their most reliable bench players under contract through at 2027-28. After this season, Haliburton will still be under contract for four more seasons, Siakam and guard Andrew Nembhard are under contract for three more seasons and forward Aaron Nesmith is under contract for two more years. Veteran point guard T.J. McConnell is under contract for four more seasons, though not all of that is guaranteed, and forward Obi Toppin is under contract for four more seasons. Because keeping all of them and signing Turner to a $30 million-per-year deal would not only put the Pacers over the luxury tax but near the first apron, they could look to move one of those players in something of a consolidation deal. Toppin in particularly seems to be something of a luxury item as a bench player who will make $14 million next season, $15 million the year after and $16 million the year after that. McConnell's salary will increase from $10.2 million to $11.8 million over the life of his deal which isn't cheap for a 33-year-old backup point guard either. However, the Pacers do seem intent on keeping as much of this core together as possible and this run has given them reason to try, and if they're willing to spend over the luxury tax they might not have to move anyone from that core of seven players. Re-signing Turner would tighten things up for future decisions, particular with recent lottery picks Bennedict Mathurin and Jarace Walker. Mathurin is extension eligible this summer and Walker will be extension eligible next summer. Deciding what to offer Mathurin isn't easy even in a vacuum as he's averaging 15.9 points per game over his first three seasons and posted the third highest scoring season for a rookie in Pacers history and continues to prove to be one of the team's most dynamic 1-on-1 scorers, but his fit within the Pacers' hyperkinetic style of play has been uneasy and his defensive progress has been real but uneven. He's averaging 10.3 points per game off the bench in the playoffs and his numbers have generally fallen since Nesmith took his place in the starting lineup. The Pacers 2026-27 cap figure is currently about $44.8 million short of the first tax apron and $57.9 million short of the second apron according to but if Turner takes up $30 million that would mean the Pacers would likely have to keep Mathurin's extension under $15 million per year to stay under the first apron and under $18 million per year to stay under the second. It's easy to imagine him getting more than that from another team if he hits free agency in the summer of 2026. The Pacers also have to decide what to do with Walker, who has had a hard time breaking into the starting lineup since being taken No. 8 in the 2023 draft. With a loaded roster last year he played in just 33 games as a rookie. This year he played in 75 in the regular season, but played just 117 playoff minutes in 12 games before an ankle sprain in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals, which held him out for Games 1 and 2 of the NBA Finals. Walker still has a season to make a case for an extension, but the Pacers are clearly in their championship window now so they might want to move him for a more veteran piece. The Pacers have a few other things to keep in mind as well. They have two picks in the upcoming draft including a first rounder who would have a guaranteed contract at No. 23. Plus they have to decide what to do at center beyond Turner. Isaiah Jackson, who has spent all season rehabbing from an Achilles tendon tear suffered on Nov. 1, will be a restricted free agent. Thomas Bryant is an unrestricted free agent and Tony Bradley has a club option on the two-year deal he signed in March after multiple 10-day deals. The Pacers can't keep all of those players, but they probably need to keep two of them to maintain a functional bench. Still, keeping an anchor at center is critical to keeping the Pacers at a championship level and it's hard to imagine them finding a better one than Turner. It's impossible to imagine them getting one more emotionally invested in the franchise. Keeping a championship caliber roster together isn't cheap, so the Pacers will likely have to figure out how to navigate the collective bargaining agreement landscape as a luxury tax payer.
