UK has 50:50 chance of 40C temperatures again in next 12 years, Met Office says
The meteorological experts also warned that far higher temperatures of 45C or more 'may be possible' in today's climate, while heatwaves could go on for a month or more.
Temperatures hit 40C in the UK for the first time on record amid the heatwave and drought summer of 2022, peaking at 40.3C in Coningsby in Lincolnshire on July 19, outstripping the previous top temperature of 38.7C in Cambridge, set just three years earlier, by 1.6C.
Major incidents were announced by fire brigades in London, Leicestershire and South Yorkshire as dozens of fires broke out and ripped through houses, schools, churches and farmland, while there was widespread disruption to transport and power systems.
More than 1,000 excess deaths among older people were recorded around the four-day peak of the heatwave, with more than 3,000 heat-related deaths in England over summer 2022.
Analysis by the Met Office, using global models to create a large number of climate outcomes in current conditions, shows the risk of 40C temperatures in the UK has been rapidly increasing.
A study published in Weather Journal shows that the chance of temperatures hitting 40C is more than 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s, and has almost trebled since the year 2000.
With ongoing climate change pushing up temperatures, the chances of exceeding 40C are continuing to increase, with a 50:50 chance of a day hitting that threshold again in the next 12 years, the Met Office said.
Temperatures several degrees higher than the July 2022 record – up to a maximum of 46.6C – are also 'plausible'.
Dr Gillian Kay, senior scientist at the Met Office, and lead author of the study, said: 'The chance of exceeding 40C has been rapidly increasing, and it is now over 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s.
'Because our climate continues to warm, we can expect the chance to keep rising.
'We estimate a 50:50 chance of seeing a 40C day again in the next 12 years.
'We also found that temperatures several degrees higher than we saw in July 2022 are possible in today's climate.'
Its study also looked at heatwaves, and found that 'much more severe' extremes could occur in the current climate.
The climate model shows up to two-thirds of summer days could be above the heatwave threshold of 28C in south-east England, with more than a month in continuous heatwave.
And 12 consecutive days above 35C is also possible, the study says.
Met Office experts said the findings showed the need to prepare and plan for the impacts of rising temperatures and extreme heat.
Dr Nick Dunstone, Met Office science fellow and co-author of the study, said: 'The well-known hot summer of 1976 had more than a fortnight above 28°C, which is a key heatwave threshold in south-east England.
'Our study finds that in today's climate such conditions could persist for a month or more.
'These findings highlight the need to prepare and plan for the impacts of rising temperatures now, so we can better protect public health, infrastructure, and the environment from the growing threat of extreme heat.'
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Daily Mirror
19 minutes ago
- Daily Mirror
Met Office tells Brits to get emergency kit ready in 11 'danger to life' areas
The Met Office has issued yellow thunderstorm warnings for 11 areas and told people they might want to prepare an 'emergency' kit in case of flooding Brits in 11 areas have been told they might want to prepare an emergency kit as yellow weather warnings have been issued. The hot and summery weather that scorched parts of the nation from the start of this week has made way for showers and thunderstorms for some, which could cause major disruption in a few areas. Two yellow thunderstorm warnings have been issued by the Met Office for parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland. These alerts are expected to stay in place until 10pm tonight, while people in 11 areas have been told to prepare for possible power cuts, flooding and disruptions to travel. A yellow warning was issued for eight areas in the east of Scotland. These include Aberdeen, Aberdeenshire, Moray, Highland, Angus, Perth and Kinross, Fife, and Dundee. Locals in this region have been told to keep safe on the roads as spray and sudden flooding could lead to difficult driving conditions and some road closures. They have also been warned that flooding of homes and businesses could happen quickly, with damage to some buildings from floodwater, lightning strikes, hail or strong winds possible. Three areas in the east of Northern Ireland have also had a yellow thunderstorm warning issued - County Antrim, County Armagh and County Down. Those areas have been given the same flood warning. The Met Office said for all areas: "There is a small chance of fast flowing or deep floodwater causing danger to life." It added: "Where flooding occurs, there is a chance of delays or cancellations to train and bus services." The Met Office warnings also suggest preparing an "emergency" flood kit with "torches and batteries, a mobile phone power pack and other essential items". This comes just a day after heat health alerts were issued across the nation. Yellow alerts are in place for Yorkshire and the Humber, East Midlands, West Midlands, East of England, London, the southeast and the southwest. The warning went into effect at 4pm on Wednesday and will remain in place until 6pm on Monday. The yellow alerts warn of a possible rise in fatalities "particularly among those ages 65 and over or with health conditions", the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) confirmed. This warning also said a greater demand could be placed on health services, internal temperatures in hospitals and care homes exceeding the "recommended threshold for clinical risk assessment".
The Guardian
19 minutes ago
- The Guardian
Wildfires claim third life in Spain as intense heat continues across Europe
Wildfires raging across Spain have killed a third person as intense heat continues across vast swathes of Europe, forcing overwhelmed governments to call in support from their neighbours. A volunteer firefighter died after battling a blaze in Castile and León, authorities said on Thursday, after the death of a fellow volunteer in the same region on Tuesday. A man died on the outskirts of Madrid on Monday as he tried to save horses from a burning stable. 'Death strikes us again with the loss of a second volunteer who has lost their life in León,' Spain's prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, said on Thursday. He thanked the 'heroes' protecting people from fires and said 'the threat remains extreme'. In Patras, Greece's third-largest city, firefighters pushed back a wildfire that had burned through the outskirts of the port and forced the evacuation of a children's hospital and a retirement home. Local media reported that a 19-year-old man who had allegedly confessed to starting the blaze was among a number of arrests made in connection to it. The Greek fire service spokesperson, Vasilios Vathrakoyannis, said the general situation had improved on all fronts after an all-night battle, but that a very high fire risk was still predicted for most areas of the country. 'Today is expected to be a very difficult day,' he said. Spain has become the fifth country in a week to activate the EU's civil protection mechanism to fight the fires. The European Commission announced that two planes stationed in France were expected to be deployed in Spain on Thursday. Greece is expected to receive two Swedish helicopters stationed in Bulgaria under the mechanism, which it activated on Tuesday, while Bulgaria, Albania and Montenegro – where a soldier died fighting a fire near the capital – have also received support from firefighters from several EU countries. The EU's civil protection mechanism, which coordinates responses during wars and other crises, has been activated 16 times during the current fire season. The number of activations is 2025 is already as the figure for the whole of the 2024 fire season, the commission said. Wildfires have burned more than 400,000 hectares in Europe so far this year, an increase of 87% compared with the average over the past two decades. France experienced its largest wildfire since 1949 last week. The two Spanish firefighters who died were using brush cutters to slow the spread of a fire when they were engulfed by the flames on Tuesday afternoon, according to the Spanish daily El País. The fire is poised to become one of the largest in the country's history. Strong and variable winds spread flames that trapped the two men, the newspaper reported. One man died within a few hours, while the other, who suffered 85% burns, died after a day in hospital. Six people remain in hospital in the region with burns and serious injuries, local media reported. Sign up to This is Europe The most pressing stories and debates for Europeans – from identity to economics to the environment after newsletter promotion The deadly fires come as southern Europe suffers intense heat that has broken temperature records across the continent – made worse by fossil fuel pollution that traps sunlight and heats the planet – and which has dried out vegetation. 'It's obvious that climate change is exacerbating the severity of fires,' said Eduardo Rojas Briales, a forestry researcher at the Polytechnic University of Valencia and former deputy director general of the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization. 'But it's not responsible to wait for greenhouse gas emissions to drop … as the sole approach to addressing the problem.' He called for additional policies such as ensuring dead plant material is kept at manageable levels, creating gaps in vegetation, for instance through reversing rural abandonment, and using prescribed burning. 'There is no alternative but to build landscapes … that are truly resilient to fires,' he said. A report published Thursday by XDI, a climate risk analysis group, found that the climate crisis has doubled the risk of infrastructure damage from forest fires in France, Italy, Greece, Romania and Bulgaria since 1990. It predicted risk would increase further still in future. 'We're all asking ourselves, how much worse can it get?,' said Karl Mallon, XDI's head of science and technology. 'According to our latest analysis, a lot.'
BBC News
an hour ago
- BBC News
Man City embrace Manchester weather with third kit
Manchester has long been labelled as the rainy this legacy, Manchester City have now used the wet weather as inspiration for their new third kit for the 2025-26 latest jersey features a raindrop graphic over a grey background, with neon green accents on the neck, shoulders and sides."This kit is for the City that plays in the rain," the club said."The shirt is designed for those who carry City in their hearts, rain or shine."Manufactured by Puma, the shirt retails online for between £65 - for the kids' jersey - and £152 for an "authentic jersey" with a name and number printed on the back."Grey skies may often be seen overhead in Manchester, but this City brings electrifying football to the pitch whatever the weather," the club added."The kit carries a message from Manchester: even when it rains, we shine."They also said the vibrant neon green accents symbolise "the standout quality" of Manchester City.
