Farmers hold all the cards when it comes to beef
ICMSA Livestock Committee Chairperson, Michael O'Connell, has said some beef processors 'have sought to pull the wool over farmers' eyes' by quoting lower base prices for steers and heifers.
Processors have been quoting base prices of €7 for steers and €7.10 for heifers; however, an additional 20-30c/kg is available for farmers.
'Processors should be ashamed to quote €7.00/kg base price for steers when they are giving up to €6.70c/kg flat for P and O grade Friesian cull cows. That leaves a prime underage P+3 Friesian steer at the same nominal value as a P grade cow,' said Mr O'Connell.
Mr O'Connell went on to say that for the past 10 days, processors have felt the pressure on supply due to the end of shed-finished cattle and a slow start to cattle coming from grass.
'We have seen in the past month or so, kill plans being reduced as a means of controlling price and supply, but this can't last forever, and the demand for Irish beef across Europe is huge,' cautioned Mr O'Connell.
'I'm sure factories are praying that the 'calendar beef farming' 30-month age limit will convince farmers with January and February 2023-born cattle to consider slaughtering these shortly. But the weather is favourable and cattle are thriving well - there is no pressure to kill them… They'd be much better off just acknowledging the reality that we all see and go out and buy the cattle from farmers as opposed to going into the farmers' yards and looking foolish by offering obviously below-par prices,' said Mr O'Connell.
Noting that the numbers of cattle across Europe are at an all-time low, Mr O'Connell stated that Irish live exports have never been as strong due to our Bluetongue-free status.
'We are sure that the volumes of 2023 and 2024 born cattle leaving the country have added to the pressures on processors. Demand for Irish cattle is off the charts and is going to continue with predictions of the EU herd falling by a further 5 to 7% this year,' Mr O'Connell said.
The Livestock committee Chair also called for the 'big players' in Irish processing to recognise the value of Irish beef and live exports, with European counterparts able to recognise the high environmental and legislative standards Irish beef meets.
'For the last fortnight, reality reasserted itself, and we see the factories getting nervous about the numbers and unable to pull prices further. The pressure is on them; the old tricks and ruses aren't working because the facts are just overriding them. ICMSA's advice is: keep possession and only sell when they are receiving the true value of the cattle,' suggested Mr O'Connell.
Mr O'Connell invites farmers to study their options with finished cattle. He says that loyalty to processors should be gone following the price cuts of the last few weeks, and farmers should not take the first price offered to them by agents.
'The pressure is off farmers with the improvement in the weather; cattle are content and thriving, and the majority of silage has been cut. By contrast, the pressure on processors has increased and we're telling farmers to stand their ground on beef prices in the coming weeks,' concluded Mr O'Connell.
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Agriland
an hour ago
- Agriland
Night-time economy advisers reimagine rural life after dark
Longford town, one of nine national pilot locations selected for Ireland's night-time economy initiative, is embracing the opportunity to reimagine rural life after dark. Backed by Longford County Council and a dedicated night-time economy adviser, Karen Reilly, the town devised a 2024–2025 action plan aimed at enhancing cultural, economic, and social vibrancy in the evenings. The plan was developed in alignment with a report by the National Night-time Economy Taskforce, published in 2021, which outlined key recommendations for creating a more dynamic and inclusive night-time culture across the country. In Longford, the plan was shaped through extensive public and business surveys, stakeholder workshops, and the formation of a cross-departmental working group within the council. The initiative has supported events like Café Lates, First Fridays, and the Safe and Sound Campaign. The Night-Time Economy Support Scheme provides grants of up to €3,000 aimed at encouraging local businesses, artists, and community groups to host evening activities. Reilly said: 'For a rural town like Longford, this initiative is more than just entertainment, it's about creating a safer more inclusive, and economically resilient community.' According to the adviser, by extending the use of public spaces and supporting late-night transport and public realm improvements, the plan is helping to make Longford a place where people want to stay, socialise, and spend locally after dark. Galway nightlife Galway city is another pilot location selected to lead the way in developing a more inclusive and sustainable night-time economy. The initiative aims to reimagine how Irish cities and towns function between 6:00p.m. and 6:00a.m., according to Kate Howard, night-time economy adviser for Galway city at Galway City Council. Galway's participation is guided by a dedicated night-time economy action plan (2024–2025), developed in close collaboration with local stakeholders including businesses, cultural venues, residents, and community groups. Howard said: 'It is not just about traditional nightlife. It encompasses a broader spectrum of experiences, including retail, cultural programming, food and drink, sport and community-led events that contribute to the vibrancy and wellbeing of the city after dark.' Appointed a night-time economy advisor in 2023, Howard was tasked with co-ordinating efforts to enhance the city's evening and night-time environment. 'The plan focuses on creating a safe, welcoming and diverse environment that supports cultural events, hospitality, retail, safety, transport and community activities,' she explained. 'Its key themes – infrastructure, communications, and experiences – are designed to ensure anholistic and inclusive approach. 'A vital aspect of the adviser's role is strengthening collaborative structures within local government and across the city, embedding the night-time economy into the city's broader planning and policy frameworks. 'This ensures that the needs and opportunities of the night-time are considered in all future strategies, from urban design and transport to community development and cultural programming.' A key component of Galway's action plan is safety and its commitment to supporting businesses through targeted training. In 2024 and 2025, Galway City Council delivered a series of free workshops for night-time operators, covering topics such as vulnerability awareness; anti-sexual harassment; bystander intervention; and drink spiking prevention. 'These sessions, led by international experts, were designed to equip staff with the tools to create safer, more inclusive environments. 'n addition, disability awareness training was introduced to help venues better accommodate customers with accessibility needs, enforcing Galway's ambition 'to be a truly welcoming city day and night', 'This commitment to safety is further supported by the Safe and Sound campaign, an initiative promoting awareness, visibility, and respect in collaboration with night-time economy stakeholders, to ensure that everyone can enjoy Galway at night with confidence,' Howard said. A standout initiative is the Café Lates pilot, which supports local cafés in extending their opening hours into the evening, offering relaxed non-alcohol focused social spaces. 'This programme which was first trialled in Galway city, has been well received, and is now in its second year, reflecting strong public demand for more diverse night-time options,' Howard outlined. 'The Galway City Café Lates model has also demonstrated its effectiveness beyond the city, with replication across five of the nine national night-time economy pilot areas: Kilkenny, Cork, Sligo, Longford, and Drogheda.' Galway has also developed an initiative called 'Youth Lates', a programme of events designed specifically for 16–19-year-olds. 'These events are co-created with young people and delivered in partnership with youth organisations, arts venues, and local creatives,' Kate explained. They provide safe, engaging and culturally rich experiences, ranging from live music events and creative workshops, offering young people a meaningful way to participate in the city's night-time life.' (Left to right): Ciaran Lennon, communities engagement officer; Karen Reilly, night-time economy advisor; David Hussey, LEDJS and Cllr. Kevin Hussey. Image source: Brian McCann. Another cultural offering is Thursday Lates at Galway Arts Centre, which pilots extended opening hours and provides evening access to exhibitions, performances, and creative workshops. The initiative is part of a broader effort to make cultural venues more accessible after dark and to encourage new patterns of engagement with the arts in the evening hours. 'Galway's night-time economy action plan is not just about economic growth. It's about fostering a city that is inclusive, culturally rich, and alive with opportunity well into the evening,' Howard said. Night-time economy A number of recommendations in the report of the night-time economy task force specifically focus on broadening the part of the night-time economy offering that does not involve the sale of alcohol or is not centred on its sale, according to a spokesperson for the Department of Culture, Communications and Sport (DCCS), which is funding the initiative. According to the spokesperson: 'There is a recognition that Ireland also has a more diverse culture today and there is a need to provide more alcohol-free options for our new communities in the night time economy. 'Younger people are also seeking a healthier lifestyle and there is a need to respond to the overall public demand for a late night café culture.' The support scheme provided grants of up €10,000 to cafés to host events to increase footfall in towns and cities, provide opportunities for artists – including new and emerging artists at local level – and also encourage the use of cafés as venues for a variety of artists in a more long-term way, the department spokesperson said. The scheme was extremely successful, with many cafés interested in trialling more events, with some reporting that they would still require a little more grant support to generate the consistent footfall needed. Rural life after dark In support of action 19 in the report of the taskforce, DCCS is funding nine night-time economy advisors in Dublin city, Cork city, Limerick city, Galway city, Kilkenny, Sligo, Longford, Buncrana and Drogheda. 'The night-time economy pilots are a significant project within the night-time economy policy area and arguably one of the most impactful. The advisors are helping to drive and support a more sustainable night-time economy in their local areas. 'They also work collaboratively on larger projects which have included a late night transport campaign in partnership with the National Transport Authority, a late night safety campaign and the Café Lates initiative,' the department spokesperson said. The pilots are reimagining cafés as evening cultural venues, hosting everything from spoken word and live music to DJ sets, games, and creative workshops. In Co. Donegal, Buncrana has recently launched a phase 2 of its night-time economy grant scheme, which provides small funds of up to €1,000 to support a range of activity from live music and cultural pop-ups to night-time food events and creative uses of public space. The grant scheme is open to all, including cafés that want to contribute to a richer, more diverse evening culture in Buncrana. Meanwhile, in Limerick city, Twilight Thursdays – which runs on the last Thursday of every month – offers a mix of family-friendly fun, live music, food and drink experiences, and cultural showcases and also features extended cafe and retail hours.
The 42
2 hours ago
- The 42
How one of Irish sport's most influential figures goes under the radar
CIARÁN MEDLAR IS often described as one of the most influential figures in Irish sport, but he prefers to keep a low profile. Despite working closely with some of the most famous people in the country and in some cases, the world, Medlar does not himself seek headlines or fame. In addition to being chairman of Shamrock Rovers, he also sits on the Board of Rugby Players Ireland and, for over 30 years, has been advising some of the country's most high-profile athletes. In 2021, he represented Ireland's women's football internationals in the historic equal pay deal, with both male and female players now receiving €2,000 per match. When the role of the Football Association of Ireland's chief executive became available last year, Medlar was one of the names mentioned as a possible successor to Jonathan Hill. Medlar's involvement in sport began in the mid-1990s, when he started advising the Republic of Ireland soccer team. In the late 1990s, a chartered accountancy firm, BDO Ireland, established a sports advisory unit, which Medlar became the head of. It has since grown to the point where BDO now have over 100 sports clients advising on all aspects of the athlete's business affairs. The individuals range from young players to former stars who are now retired. The 42 recently caught up with Medlar to chat about his career and advice for young footballers. Medlar helped broker the historic equal pay agreement between the Irish men's and women's international teams. How did your involvement in sport get started? 'I got involved advising the Republic of Ireland soccer team in the mid-1990s through advising on financial affairs and exploitation of the commercial opportunities for them as a group around the events that they would have been qualifying for around that time. That's where I got introduced to people who would come to the end of their careers from the previous generation, and then people are starting out in the next stages of careers as well. And from that it grew into a variety of sports. So we established a sports unit in BDO back in the late 1990s, and it's flourished. We've over 100 sports clients within that, so revising all aspects of their business affairs, not just tax and financial, but also around post-career planning, what comes after sport, and that's across a variety of sports, in football, rugby, racing, golf, and horse racing. It's gone across a variety of different sports, because a lot of the issues facing one sport are exactly the same facing another. And so it's just grown out of that. But within that, we advise a lot of younger players, Irish players typically go to play football in the UK. Now it has broadened to Europe, because we advise them at an early stage of their career, how to plan financial affairs within that time frame, but also when they finish playing professionally, what comes next.' How would you describe yourself in terms of your role in sports? Would a financial advisor be the best way of putting it? 'Probably not. A financial advisor suggests something different. It's more like a business advisor, because it's broader than that. It's not just financially, it's other aspects as well. But we've grown our team in BDO there in the last number of years. Cian O'Sullivan, the ex-Dublin footballer, has joined us over the last four years. So it's expanding all the time. Opportunities for us in the sports business environment are significant, and we've built that over a period and grown into quite an established practice, which is probably unique amongst professional services firms in Ireland.' The former RTÉ journalist and businessman Fintan Drury was a pretty key figure in helping you get set up, right? 'I did a podcast [with The Currency] recently. I did mention Fintan would have been the one who gave me the opportunity in sports back at that time, because he had established Ireland's first sports agency at the time, and we would have worked quite closely with him at that period. But he was very generous to give us that opportunity, and the group grew out of that. I had a lot of support from Fintan in the early days.' What are some of the things you would advise a young footballer to do? 'I think one of the key things for young footballers, there's normally a tight group around them, and it's important that that's relatively small initially. But it would involve the family structure. Typically, parents or guardians. They would also have their actual agent to help with the negotiation, in tandem with a financial person or business person like ourselves, and probably some legal advice, but people are trying to plan and give the individual player the best chance to progress. So in the early stage, I suppose it's quite unusual in a business sense, as everyone knows that the income comes very early in their career, as opposed to the other way around for most people. But there are some oddities in the system — it is an unusual career. It can be short, or it can be long. It can come to an abrupt end through injury, loss of form, from a change of coach at a footballing level. Advertisement So, from day one, what we would advise is quite conservative. But it's also planning for the post career piece, where that comes to two, four or 15 years, it's also trying to protect the individual that they have a chance to either go again, if they need to, outside of football, and when they do finish playing, they're financially well set up for next piece of life. So that any challenge they have, financial will not be one of them. What often happens in football is that, and I'm talking about the traditional model, where they go to the UK. I'll come back to that later, because that's obviously changed in recent times. People go in and they earn a lot of money, or certainly some of the top end would earn a lot of money early on. And they get thrown some wacky investment opportunities that are going around the place, and everyone's trying to chase this massive return on it. Oftentimes these are just poor investments, and they end up coming back to cripple the players financially, whereas the more steady approach, and if you wish, the boring approach, is the way we would recommend where people are trying to chase relatively modest return on their investments, so that the money's growing for them in the background, but not being put at risk either. So that's a much safer approach. And certainly, when we would encourage everything from safer investment devices, pension planning, player insurance, life insurance, etc, that would all be put in place so that the players are planning for their post-career at a very early stage. I'd also encourage them, though, that they are young players who are doing well. They need to enjoy some of the money. So we'd always carve out a piece that they have for them to enjoy their life as well, and to enjoy the journey that they have, and to help families if that's appropriate as well. So it's trying to get that balance right between the actual protection piece for themselves and enjoying the journey. And then for the higher profile people who have longer careers, you're trying to invest that money so that they're financially independent, well in advance of when they come to finish playing football, and they have to find out what they want to do after football. Because it's a different sort of challenge than they would have. The horror stories you would hear about some of the players in the UK, particularly, who would have finished playing and have these massive investments that have gone south, or tax issues that may have arisen because of an investment they made, or so on. So, you're trying to protect people from that. The football journey has changed. People traditionally would have gone over to the UK. Post-Brexit, the actual opportunity to do so has changed. So that could flip back, I believe, in the relatively short term, or there could be some licence arrangement where players could go to the UK at an earlier stage than 18. But for now, that's the rules. Hence, you have two options. Typically, the players will actually go further afield to Europe, which brings different challenges, settling into a different environment, oftentimes into a different language and culture, or what's happening more and more, some players are staying in the League of Ireland and playing professional football here for a longer period, because the product here, the quality has increased a lot. The attendance and profile have increased, and the opportunity to shine on a European stage has become more real for the players. So it's becoming a real alternative to going elsewhere at an early stage, and it allows the clubs here to grow the players and sell them at a later stage for a higher transfer fee than they otherwise would have got. I think a lot of the coaches in the League of Ireland, as well, are much more focused on developing the players' careers, as opposed to just trying to flip them and sell them on as an asset. But there is a much more genuine interest in many of the coaches here, in the players and the individuals themselves. So that suits a lot of players to go a bit later. So there is probably a bit more money made here in Ireland, and the players are a bit more mature by the time you get to the UK, and a bit more self-sufficient.' Medlar has been chairman of Shamrock Rovers since 2020. James Crombie / INPHO James Crombie / INPHO / INPHO Has your role significantly changed in the last 30 years? As more money has gone into the game, what do you think has been the biggest change? 'Some of the numbers are certainly bigger because there is more money in the game than there was, and they are going to different destinations that we didn't have before. But I think the actual advice is more or less the same, albeit with different figures than you would have in the past. You need the various pieces I mentioned earlier, the various supports you have around the player. But how it's changed, the game from our side, it's more complicated. Now, it's more people involved, nutritionists, psychologists, and other professionals involved than the players would have had 20 years ago. And that's all for the good, it allows people to be a bit more secure in what they're trying to achieve, on and off the pitch. But from our point of view, the actual services we provide are probably the same as they were.' As you alluded to earlier, I think people don't realise how common it is for footballers post-retirement to end up bankrupt, and are seriously struggling financially. Do you guys continue to regularly advise athletes after they retire? 'Of the clients we have, many of them are retired. So our real value tends to come after they finish playing professionally, and helping with that sort of financial piece afterwards. I think people are certainly more aware of that, the financial pitfalls, which is good, but there are some cases where people have made bad investments. And post-career, the income has dropped significantly. There's no chance to replace that income in a quick way. So you're trying to survive in that world and also deal with that transitional piece, because never mind the financial piece, the transition out of professional sports is very hard for most people to try to find where they fit into life after that, and what role do they have. Some people get involved in business. Some people get involved in media, TV, and coaching, but those options in the latter industries are quite limited. So it's important that that base is there, and finance is not one of the challenges they have, so they can decide what they want to do next in their lives. Coming out of football, if you're lucky, at 35-36 years of age, you have to find something to do with yourself. So that's why having the cash to retrain, to invest in some business you want to, to get involved in some business, is very important.' You've worked with many high-profile athletes and observed them in close quarters. Do you think there is any characteristic they share? 'There are common traits — that drive people have to be really elite in sport. It also applies to their private lives. So they will want to be successful, and they are quite focused on getting the best advice around. So at the elite level of it, they have different challenges as well when they finish playing, which are not financial. But I think the trends we would see are that people are much more focused now than they would have been even 20 years ago, about planning their business affairs in a different way than they would have done before. I do think, and this is a generalism, that a lot of the Irish players are tightly managed through their family, agents and close advisors. And there is a general protection around them from a business point of view. And most of the Irish players, if they go abroad, will tend to ultimately come back to live here in Ireland. So when they're buying property or buying assets as well, that's part of the planning they would do. So there would tend to be an Irish angle to it as well. But that's what we see. We would have acted for international players as well, but I think the Irish focus is slightly different.' And as we touched on earlier, as time has developed, increasing amounts of money have been put into sport, which creates big egos. Is it ever a challenge to persuade them to go with your advice, with so many people around them and whatnot? 'I suppose, because you're involved in so many aspects of their day-to-day lives, the trust tends to build up quite quickly, so they would listen to you. And if that trust is not there, the relationship won't last anyway. But if you're with people, with players, you tend to be with them for quite a long period. So I think that there is trust that what you're giving them is solid advice, and they will listen, in the main, irrespective of profiles of the individual, that is to say, what level you're at in the sport at a point in time.' You've got a lot going on with various commitments. Is it a challenge to balance everything? 'I'm very lucky to work in a space where I actually love sport. I love working in sport, so I'm blessed to get the opportunity to work with such high-performing individuals. It's fantastic. So it's not a chore at all. It's very enjoyable.' I've seen you described as the most influential person in Irish sport, but you wouldn't be a household name among sports fans. Are you happy with it that way? 'For sure. That's a headline. That's not true, right? But low-key is much better for us. And we should be low-key financial advisors and business advisors to people. So, yeah, that's a much better way for us.' You were involved in the historic equal pay deal for the Irish men's and women's teams. How difficult was that to get over the line? And did it take you a long time to negotiate? 'There was a huge amount of goodwill around the table at the time between the FAI, the men's team, and the women's team. So it wasn't difficult to get across the line, to try and get the maths right, but it was a very positive discussion and very positive outcome. It was great to be involved in that. But it wasn't a difficult conversation.' As you mentioned before, the League of Ireland has evolved into a more professional beast. There have been financial difficulties with various clubs in the past. But are you confident that the league as a whole will continue on this upward trajectory and there won't be a return to the bad old days? 'I hope so. I think the limitations we have are primarily around the infrastructure investment. If we can get that right, I mean, collectively get that right, I think the opportunity is huge. There's certainly a lot more professionalism in how the clubs are run around the league, and because of the interest from fans and sponsors and media, it has grown into something. I think there's future growth definitely in there, both domestically and in Europe. We are making an impact collectively in Europe as well. So I would be very hopeful that it will go the right way. The academy investment is also quite important to make sure that the next generation is coming through. Lots of clubs have been doing a lot of really positive work around the academies, and hopefully, the support will come and the income will come from a combination of grants and commercial interests to allow it to flourish. But there are real positive structures in place there, so hopefully they can invest to bring through the next generation of players. The signs are pretty promising at the moment.' And finally, what advice would you give to a young footballer reading this? 'I suppose it's important to listen to those close to you. Keep the advisory group quite small. But first of all, go and focus on developing your football career. Let the other piece be managed by others, to allow you to focus on what you want to focus on and not chase crazy returns, crazy investment opportunities. Just be measured in your approach and enjoy your career for as long as it lasts.' This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
Irish Times
3 hours ago
- Irish Times
When I was ambassador, Trump's advisers still had sway. Now the EU has to be ready to hit back hard
'God be with the days' is a phrase I often heard older people use during my early years. As a student of history, I am sceptical of nostalgia for bygone eras that were usually much less glorious than imagined, but the current EU-US impasse over tariffs does make me pine away for the old world of multilateral trade talks. I remember being involved with the Uruguay Round of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) negotiations when that diplomatic circus came to Brussels during my time there in the 1990s. Backroom deals were hammered out during all-night sessions. The Uruguay Round took eight years to complete. When it concluded in 1994, the result was a freeing up of world trade, a general reduction in tariffs and the setting up of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), of which Ireland's Peter Sutherland became the director general. What a different world we now live in. The decades-long liberalisation of trade has gone into sudden and sharp reverse . US president Donald Trump 's ambition to conclude 90 agreements in 90 days will clearly not be realised, but the world we knew in the heyday of the WTO may not be recoverable. Economic nationalism is now the order of the day in the United States, and others may be tempted to follow suit. Trump's approach echoes a wider mood among Americans. Trade negotiators usually spend their time mulling over such things as commodity codes, market access and non-tariff barriers to trade. They tend to run dogged negotiating marathons rather than blue riband sprints. It can take years to work out the details of a trade agreement. READ MORE The European Commission has vast experience of handling trade negotiations as it is one of the commission's exclusive competences. Its counterparts across the EU-US negotiating table are the permanent officials and political appointees at the office of the US Trade Representative. In a normal world, those two teams would have sweated out a set of compromises in the confident expectation that their political masters would eventually give a 'thumbs up' to the results of their labours. Not so now. The upheavals of Trump 2.0 may end up doing the EU a favour. Although reduced reliance on the US market would represent a painful transition, it may be a necessary one I am sure that the two teams have explored solutions across the full range of trade-related issues. EU negotiators will have come armed with a set of concessions designed to appeal to the Americans. Sadly, however, this is not a conventional negotiating environment as Trump may well choose to disregard the advice of his negotiators. He enjoys an unmatched and unchallenged degree of authority. Last week's letter to commission president Ursula von der Leyen read more like an ultimatum than a negotiating offer. So where is this dispute headed? The second Trump term is a very different proposition from its predecessor during my years as ambassador in Washington. At that time, Donald Trump was a political neophyte. With the experience of four years in the Oval Office and time to reflect on what went right and wrong for him during Trump 1.0, he is now far more self-assured. His current team of advisers have less sway over him. Trump's belief in tariffs is not widely shared, but it is deeply held and long-standing. He is actually less ideological than many of his supporters, but is animated by a deep conviction that his country has persistently been taken advantage of internationally, and that his predecessors have been too pusillanimous to protect American interests. Europeans see things very differently, of course. They will point to the success of US companies in Europe and the profits they generate for their ultimate ownership across the Atlantic. [ Trump's 30% tariffs would effectively cut off EU-US trade, Sefcovic says Opens in new window ] Since the so-called Liberation Day on April 2nd, the EU has acted with a commendable restraint designed to avoid an escalation of the transatlantic tariff dispute. It has patiently deferred retaliatory action, even in response to US tariffs on steel and aluminium which have been in place for months now. Even after the missive threatening 30 per cent tariffs landed in Brussels, the commission's tempered response prioritised negotiation and presented its planned countermeasures as a last resort. [ Is Trump's tariffs plan working for the US? And where does it go next? Opens in new window ] It is genuinely difficult to predict how this will land, but an all-out trade war would be a mutually damaging outcome – one that both sides ought to be keen to avoid. The odds still marginally favour a last-minute agreement, but not necessarily by the August 1st deadline. Whatever the outcome, Trump will be keen to declare victory for his 'America First' policy. If agreement proves impossible, the EU will ultimately have no alternative but to hit back hard while probably delaying implementation in the hope that market reaction will soften Washington's position and obviate the need for full-scale retaliation. Whereas the threatened US tariffs are across the board, the EU's reaction will target products likely to ruffle feathers in Trump-supporting communities. Selectivity is the wiser course, but it does require choices to be made, and that poses a dilemma for a 27-member union. Each member state has its own priorities on what to exclude from the EU's retaliatory package. And the issue of transatlantic security, where the atmospherics have improved since the recent Nato Summit, will always loom over European calculations. I expect that consensus will develop around the commission's current proposal for a €70 billion tariff package on imports from the US. That would put the ball back in Washington's court, with unpredictable consequences. My sense is that the EU is reluctantly ready to face up to them. These unwelcome developments are especially problematic for Ireland , given our unusual exposure to the US market. Important Irish exports like butter and sprits could be badly hit right away. Pharmaceuticals are being dealt with separately by the US, but they are clearly vulnerable too. Irish-based tech companies may find themselves blown off course by tariff headwinds. The current standoff convinces me that the EU needs to work on building its own economic resilience. The upheavals of Trump 2.0 may end up doing the EU a favour. Although reduced reliance on the US market would represent a painful transition, it may be a necessary one and there are alternative avenues for European trade. Even if this impasse is sorted out, there is no guarantee that it will remain so. There's a new economic zeitgeist afoot and no going back, I fear, to those old days of predictable trade negotiations and their relatively benign outcomes. We need to brace ourselves for a rough ride and play to our strengths. Daniel Mulhall was Ireland's ambassador to the US during the first Trump presidency and is a consultant with Rockwood Public Affairs
