Australia v Lions first Test predictions: Why Andy Farrell's side will win

Telegraph

a day ago

The opening Test match of the British and Irish Lions ' tour of Australia takes place on Saturday morning in Brisbane.
Telegraph Sport 's rugby experts predict how the match will unfold while Charlie Morgan analyses the tactics Wallabies coach Joe Schmidt might use to expose the Lions' unfamiliarity.
Australia 13 Lions 25
Andy Farrell has picked a forward pack to dominate the Wallabies, with his heavyweight selection coming just as Schmidt has lost two of his powerhouse forwards in Rob Valetini and Will Skelton. Yet the coaching genius of Schmidt ensures that there remains a significant air of uncertainty about the contest.
Joseph Suaalii's brilliance did for England at Twickenham last November, while Fraser McReight will look to make a mess of the Lions possession at the breakdown. But if the Lions gel, and their experienced heads step up to Test-match intensity, the tourists have the ability to win enough quick ball to give Finn Russell et al the ammunition for a comprehensive victory.
Australia 17 Lions 34
'Reach for the top of Everest': that was Jim Telfer's famous message to his Lions players in 1997, in a speech that would become a canonical text for future touring sides. But you have to question whether beating this version of the Wallabies truly represents the pinnacle for Farrell and his team.
Australia are sixth in the world and look worryingly light on carriers in the absence of Skelton and Valetini, while the Lions pack is stacked with fearsome power. Even though the Wallabies attack is much improved under Schmidt, who has made them world leaders in ruck speed, the Lions' likely domination of the set-piece should lay the platform for a comfortable victory.
Australia 18 Lions 30
No Valetini or Skelton plus a fly-half making his first start who looks like he is eight stone wet dripping, it is not disrespectful to say that these Wallabies are here for the taking. There is class in parts – notably Suaalii and McReight, who must be contained in the air and floor respectively – but even accounting for Schmidt's genius, if the Lions do not win comfortably then something will have gone wrong.
The tourists have the means to dominate the set-piece as well as the gain line both from the start and in terms of their bench, which should give Russell the opportunity to pull on his tux and play all the party pieces.
Australia 23 Lions 29
A Wallabies win would inject jeopardy into this series and I have no doubt that most neutrals would be keen to see that outcome. But injuries to Valetini, Skelton and Langi Gleeson, not to mention Noah Lolesio, have left Australia severely depleted.
Schmidt has engineered upsets before, and came extremely close to tripping up Farrell's Ireland in November. He is bound to give the tourists a tactical curveball or two. McReight is among the very best breakdown disruptors on the planet and Tom Wright's verve at full-back will be crucial if the hosts are to come close.
I just think the Lions will have too much. Starting three locks, with another on the bench, the maul will be an area of strength for the entire 80 minutes and their kicking game, concealed over the past few weeks, should control territory as well.
Australia 30 Lions 38
First Tests tend to be cagey affairs but I just feel (hope) that the Wallabies will have a few tricks up their sleeves to startle a Lions side which has had a propensity to leak soft tries – and, in truth, if Australia are to have a chance given their absentees, they really need to arrive with some stuff that is a little out of the box (but don't get any ideas from Rassie, Joe).
To that end, I reckon it could be quite high-scoring, particularly with the way both sides hope to move the ball and with some of the heavier artillery on either side not selected (for whatever reason). Also, this tour really does need a firecracker of a Test to kick-start it; after some pretty mild warm-up matches, it does not need a kick-fest this Saturday.
The Wallabies at home are never a walk-over but the Lions should have too much for them – particularly in the tight and especially off the bench – with the tourists taking a 1-0 lead to the MCG.
Five ploys Schmidt can use to expose Lions
Joe Schmidt has earned a reputation for executing wily plans on the pitch and the series opener against the Lions is his chance to catch out former colleague Andy Farrell. Here are five ploys that can help the Kiwi spring a surprise.
1. Hit the skies for Suaalii
It is easy to imagine Schmidt rubbing his hands with glee at the Lions' restart wobbles over the past few weeks, because he has a not-so-secret weapon to deploy at Suncorp Stadium.
Joseph Suaalii was used rather sparingly against Fiji a fortnight ago in Newcastle. Harry Potter, himself an excellent aerial operator, was the chief chaser even for this Ben Donaldson strike after Australia had gone 18-14 behind with 12 minutes remaining.
Suaalii, closer to the near touchline, tended to hold back:
Back in November, the rangy athlete caused havoc from these situations at Twickenham and continually won back possession. Here, after England have scored a try to go 37-35 ahead, Donaldson dinks and pressure from Suaalii causes a spill from Maro Itoje:
Australia would score their match-winning try from the ensuing scrum.
This ploy was so effective that it became a reliable way for the Wallabies to surge towards the opposition 22. Two weeks later against Scotland, Suaalii leaps prodigiously and slaps back into the path of a bulldozing Harry Wilson:
A close-up shows how he sprints behind Jamie Ritchie, who possesses impressive spring, and blindsides the back-rower, reaching up with one hand:
Suaalii will be more threatening with the crackdown on obstructing chasers, and Australia adopted route one in Dublin at the end of their autumn campaign.
Fraser McReight spins the ball away from a line-out to Jake Gordon and an old-fashioned up-and-under allows Suaaliii to disrupt Ireland's back-field. The Wallabies eventually secure it…
…and score out wide through Max Jorgensen a few phases later:
With aerial contests becoming more critical and more chaotic, Schmidt has a devastating asset.
2. Flood the 13 channel
The selection of Huw Jones over Garry Ringrose will not alter this approach, because the outside-centre channel is the most difficult area to defend for any team – let alone one with just six matches together as a collective.
Jones may not be quite as aggressive as Ringrose, but he is still defending with unfamiliar wings; Tommy Freeman on the right and James Lowe on the left.
Western Force found some joy through the 13 channel in Perth, punching up in midfield with a powerful carry from Vaiolini Ekuasi after Alex Harford's pass behind Nick Champion de Crespigny:
On the next phase, Nic White finds Harford and Ringrose shoots up to make an man-and-ball tackle on Donaldson, but Dylan Pietsch arcs around from the near flank to arrive on the right shoulder of his full-back.
Lowe cannot jam in quickly enough on the outside of Ringrose and Pietsch scuttles through a hole:
Some 10 days later, the Brumbies ran another clever strike play to outflank the Lions. From a close-range line-out, they start with the slice set-up that is seen around the world with centre Ollie Sapsford at first-receiver and Hudson Creighton running flat.
Usually in this scenario, the ball will either go flat to Creighton or there will be a pull-back to the fly-half, who is Declan Meredith in this case. Instead, Sapsford throws a longer pass to Ben O'Donnell, who arrives on the outside of Meredith and loops the ball over pressing defenders directly to Corey Toole:
Rather amusingly, the Lions responded by using the exact same option to score against the AUNZ invitational side, with Owen Farrell feeding Mack Hansen in the build-up to a Duhan van der Merwe finish:
Nevertheless, it is a shrewd ploy. Expect Potter and Jorgensen to roam off their wings towards the opposite 15-metre lines. And the Wallabies are bound to be armoured with strike plays.
3. Clinical choreography
Schmidt is a meticulous strategist and has a well regarded head of analysis in Eoin Toolan, who doubles up as a skills coach. They will have studied hours of footage in preparation for this series.
In just over a year of matches under Schmidt, the Wallabies have showcased several trick plays. This one, unfurled against Argentina before Australia capitulated from 20-3 up to lose 67-27, will be familiar to Ireland fans.
Three forwards are poised to the near side of the ruck before Donaldson slides behind this pod to collect a pass from Gordon and join up with Len Ikitau beyond the breakdown. Jorgenson is released by a flurry of passes and Andrew Kellaway supports to score:
An extremely cunning line-out move cut open New Zealand later in the same Rugby Championship campaign. Rob Valetini arcs back around to take a Matt Faessler throw that sails over the top. White follows up and McReight, who had originally lifted Nick Frost for a jump that holds the All Blacks at the tail, sprints through to take the scoring pass:
Another lobbed throw, this time over Harry Wilson for Tate McDermott to bolt through the middle, brought about a try against Scotland:
This series will not pass by without a Schmidt special.
4. Set-piece smarts
Schmidt has assembled canny lieutenants around him. Geoff Parling is a studious line-out guru and, in Frost and Jeremy Williams, Australia have jumpers to disrupt the Lions. Wilson picked up a couple of steals at the front against Fiji as well.
Few, if any, on the planet can hold a candle to Mike Cron as far as scrummaging nous. It is fascinating that Angus Bell has been held back among the replacements for Saturday, with the experienced James Slipper starting. This looks like an effort to be as solid as possible, giving a good impression to the officials, early on.
Bell is a rampaging carrier, so is sure to get half an hour. Tom Robertson, who gave Tadhg Furlong some issues when he started at loosehead for the Force, is Australia's tighthead replacement. He will succeed 81-cap Allan Alaalatoa with instructions to keep his team in the fight.
5. Treading water over line-speed
We may see the Wallabies go against the grain of aggressive, pressing defences by holding back – at least close to the breakdown – to let the Lions run their intricate phase shapes.
Australia did this in Dublin eight months ago. Their forwards came up slightly more slowly than they would normally, trusting backs to spot 'back-door' options and dart from out to in.
The Lions have been more lateral than direct so far this tour, and a more gradual press could stifle them if the Wallabies manage to read pull-back passes.
6. Breakdown control
Teams coached by Schmidt are characterised by ruthless efficiency around the ruck area when they are in possession. His Ireland outfit were renowned for restraint when it came to offloading, though Australia evidently have more freedom. There is little point stifling a player like Ikitau.
Against Fiji, the Wallabies forwards shifted the point of contact with deft inside passes from the front of three-man pods. Here, Langi Gleeson transfers to Harry Wilson, who shrugs off Eroni Mawi and lifts an offload to Frost:
If Australia are to make punchy inroads around the ruck, Champion de Crespigny will need to aid Wilson in the carrying stakes because Valetini, Gleeson and Will Skelton are big misses.
Australia will go to the boot if they lose impetus – Jorgensen and Potter kicked from wide positions against Fiji – and the slippery Tom Wright will be a key runner from full-back, especially if the Lions offer up opportunities on kick-return. He will want to link with Tom Lynagh as fluently as he has done with Noah Lolesio.
Having watched breakdown scavengers like Charlie Gamble and Luke Reimer make hay for the Waratahs and the Brumbies, respectively, Australia will want the Lions to go through phases in the middle of the pitch. In McReight, they have a total pest over the ball in their ranks. Track the white scrum cap here:
Carlo Tizzano, on the bench for the first Test, tackles Albert Tuisue and hurls the Fiji back-rower towards the try-line. McReight then stretches towards the ball before withdrawing. Isoa Nasilasila flies over the top, conceding a penalty.
Australia clear from the penalty, eke out another infringement with a driving maul and eventually batter down the door for Wilson's winning try thanks to a series of close-quarter carries.
Organisation and toughness will be essential if they are to oust the Lions. This is a challenge that Schmidt will relish.