Trump moves on before his deals can be exposed as meaningless
One of the standout observations is that Donald Trump never, ever, takes responsibility for any failures and never sticks around long enough for his deals to be exposed as the hollow shells they usually turn out to be. So we shouldn't be surprised that Biden gets blamed for Trump's Taliban deal or that Zelensky is blamed for not capitulating to Putin.
Ukraine, in the President's eyes, was a mineral deal – nothing more and nothing less. It wasn't about global politics, Western values or Nato security. Now he's got that deal it is becoming clear he's on the move.
It's also clear to Putin. From day one of this US Presidency, Putin has known whose side Donald Trump is on.
The latest twist has been Trump bullying President Zelensky to meet Putin. Putin, like the coward he is, did not show. Result: Trump does nothing. Well not quite nothing – the US is blocking Zelensky from coming to the Nato summit in Holland next month.
It really wouldn't have surprised me if Donald Trump had gone to the Moscow Victory day last week, which looked like something from 'despots r us'.
What happens next is the key question. Europe and Ukraine need to start preparing to go it alone. Nobody should buy the line that without the US, the Ukrainians are finished. They are not. They know how to fight. They know how to innovate. And the 'vital' intelligence they get on the battlefield is not all American. It isn't.
So if we in Europe resolve to replace Uncle Sam we can: if we really want to and if we are prepared to make our own sacrifices.
We should also be realistic about what this new American administration means for our security. I have no doubt that at some stage the US President will recognise the 2014 borders imposed on Ukraine by the Russian invasion of that year.
Recognising sovereign borders that have been changed by force goes against everything we stand for and believe. While some people love Donald Trump's style and his manner they fail to understand that this is not the 1920s. This is the true era of globalisation where everything a leader says sends instant ripples around the globe. Presidents and Prime Ministers have to be very careful to understand the impact their actions can have. We are truly interconnected.
So if Trump does recognise a Russian Crimea then we need to be fearful of what it will mean closer to home in Northern Europe. We already see Russia building military bases close to Finland and aggressive air patrol and naval movements in the Baltics and North Sea. Look at it from Putin's point of view. He knows that the US isn't interested and is about to draw down its forces in Europe. He knows that despite him invading Ukraine he got away with it. So why would he stop now?
Putin will be thinking 'would Trump really risk US boots on the ground and nuclear Armageddon if i take a little bit of Estonia and Lithuania? or even a bit of Finland?'
The big powers of Europe are not ready for a war and their populations even less so. Britain and France have been strong on rhetoric but not matched it with funding.
But things must change in Europe. I'd bet that the failed meeting in Istanbul will be the excuse Trump needs to move on.
Putin must be delighted.
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