2025 NASCAR Playoff Picture: Who's In, Who's Nervous, Who's Got To Win
A win guarantees a spot in the playoffs unless there are more winners than spots available. The 16 spots go to the regular-season champion and then 15 drivers based on wins with tiebreakers by points.
Right now, there have been 12 winners and the regular-season champion will most likely be a driver who has won a race. So unless there are five new winners (or four new winners and winless Tyler Reddick makes up a 53-point deficit to win the regular-season title), everyone with a win will get in.
The six races remaining in the regular season: Dover (1-mile concrete oval), Indianapolis (2.5-mile flat oval), Iowa (0.875-mile oval), Watkins Glen (road course), Richmond (0.75-mile oval) and Daytona (2.5-mile drafting oval).
Of these tracks, the most likely places for upset winners are Watkins Glen, Richmond and Daytona. So likely at most there will be three new winners. Here's a breakdown of who's in and who's on the bubble when it comes to points and who needs a win.
Guaranteed Spots
Drivers with multiple wins, locked into the playoffs: All these drivers have three wins — Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell and Shane van Gisbergen.
Have A Win, No Worries
These drivers might not be mathematically locked in yet with one win, but they are not in danger of being the odd driver out if there are more winners than spots: William Byron, Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe, Ross Chastain, Joey Logano.
Have A Win, Tiny Worry
These drivers might have to battle it out on points if they don't win again and there are more winners than spots: Austin Cindric and Josh Berry. Only six points separate these two drivers, with Cindric ahead; Cindric is 103 points behind Logano as far as the standings of drivers with one win.
No Win, Tiny Worry
Tyler Reddick. Reddick does have a small shot at repeating as the regular-season champion, but he also has a 115-point cushion on Chris Buescher, who is second in points among winless drivers.
On Points Bubble
If there are three new winners, none of these drivers would make the field (unless they are among those winners). Here is how the bubble looks:
Buescher (+34 on the current cutoff), Alex Bowman (+32), Bubba Wallace (+3), Ryan Preece (-3) and Kyle Busch (-37).
Must Win
The other 18 drivers either need incredible runs and luck without a win or more likely a victory to make the playoffs: AJ Allmendinger (-50), Ty Gibbs (-60), Erik Jones (-68), Michael McDowell (-70), John Hunter Nemechek (-85), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (-91), Carson Hocevar (-96), Zane Smith (-96), Brad Keselowski (-136), Austin Dillon (-138), Daniel Suarez (-139), Todd Gilliland (-148), Ty Dillon (-149), Justin Haley (-152), Noah Gragson (-203), Cole Custer (-214), Riley Herbst (-231) and Cody Ware (-322).
Of those drivers, eight have never won a Cup race: Gibbs, Nemechek, Hocevar, Gilliland, Ty Dillon, Gragson, Herbst and Ware.
Dover Outlook
Among the drivers on the bubble or looking for a win, only Busch (three wins), Keselowski (one) and Bowman (one) have won at Dover. Other drivers who have found themselves among the leaders at the end of Dover races: Stenhouse (best finish 2nd), Suarez (third) and Jones (fourth).
Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR and INDYCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.
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