$10.4 billion test looms for ‘safe haven' Australian banks

Sydney Morning Herald

03-05-2025

The major Australian banks' reputation as a safe investment bet during market volatility caused by Donald Trump's trade war faces a key test this week, as investors expect three of Australia's biggest banks to post $10.4 billion in profits.
Commonwealth Bank, Westpac and National Australia Bank outperformed the ASX 200 during the market rebound over the past month, as investors piled into the sector after the chaos unleashed by the US president's 'Liberation Day' tariff announcements.
CBA shares shot to record highs on Friday, valuing the bank at more than $280 billion. ANZ Bank shares have outperformed the ASX 200 since January, though their bounceback during April was more modest.
Fund managers say one reason for bank shares' resilience is a perception they are a relative 'safe haven' amid market turmoil, as the US tariffs are not expected to directly hit industry profits. But some analysts also say valuations are 'stretched' – in particular CBA's – making the next round of profit results, starting with Westpac on Monday, a key litmus test for the sector.
'There's some truth to the banks being a safe haven, but at the same time, the growth outlook is more modest than it was 20 years ago.'
Regal Funds Management head of fundamental research Mark Nathan
The effect of falling interest rates on banks' bottom lines will also be an important issue for investors – markets are tipping about 1 percentage points of Reserve Bank interest rate cuts over the rest of 2025.
Regal Funds Management head of fundamental research Mark Nathan said investors were likely to focus on what bank results revealed about the sector's bad debts, interest margins, capital and the level of competition.
Nathan said one of the key things to consider is whether banks could cut interest rates by less than any RBA cuts – though he expected banks would probably pass through any rate cuts to borrowers in full.
'We've got to be cognisant that, politically, it may be difficult for banks to move lending rates by less than any RBA cuts,' he said.