Analysts on Chevron winning arbitration over Exxon in Hess deal
"We see this transformative project driving meaningful production growth for at least the next three to five years, adding substantial new heft on the liquids side from Guyana, the Permian, and Gulf of Mexico. CVX and XOM must now put this legal dispute behind them as partners in Guyana, with the focus turning to advancing planned development stages."
"We view the outcome positively for Chevron, given the quality and size of the Guyanese assets. We do not view the ruling as a negative for Exxon, whose ultimate goal seemed to be denying Chevron access or securing a favorable ruling for use elsewhere, rather than acquiring the assets itself."
"Chevron's win in the arbitration over the Guyana oil assets case is a major coup for the U.S. oil major ... It strengthens Chevron's upstream presence in Guyana, Canada and U.S. on-shore ... We expect the company to continue to strengthen its portfolio over the coming years."
"We expect (Chevron's) shares to outperform over the coming weeks... as investors have clarity on the investment case and can focus more on the free-cash flow inflection into 2026-27, as well as the new growth that comes with Hess assets."
"The synergy target is likely to be reviewed at the (Capital Market Day) on November 12, where Chevron expects to go deeper into its longer-term plans."
"Chevron had suggested when the deal was announced that 8 assets it highlighted of the joint entity (Guyana, GOA, Australia, TCO, Permian, DJ, Bakken, Eastern Med) are core. It is unclear if this still stands, with some likely seeing the Bakken as a divestment candidate."
"Chord Energy and Devon Energy have both been acquisitive in the basin, and we expect incremental interest on future opportunities either with Chevron as a consolidator or interest in divesting."
"Although the Hess acquisition is dilutive to Chevron's near-term per-share metrics given a high implied oil price (close to $80 a barrel), it is strategically important as it gives Chevron a significant growth runway beyond 2027 ... Hess propels Chevron from a 3.3 million barrels a day company to a 4.2 million bpd producer, not far off Exxon at 4.5 million bpd."
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