'Flash Flood Alley' Has History of Deadly Camp Floods: Meteorologist

Newsweek

06-07-2025

Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
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Around 70 people have been killed in flash floods across Texas over the weekend, where intense rainfall inundated what is known as part of "flash flood alley."
Eleven girls are missing from Camp Mystic, an all-girls Christian summer camp along the Guadalupe River, after flooding hit the area. The disaster echoes aspects of a 1987 flood that killed 10 campers at a nearby Christian camp, local meteorologist Cary Burgess told Newsweek on Sunday via email.
Newsweek has reached out to the National Weather Service (NWS) for comment via email on Sunday.
Why It Matters
Fast-moving floodwaters surged 26 feet along the Guadalupe River in just 45 minutes before dawn on Friday, sweeping away homes and vehicles in Texas Hill Country.
As of Sunday morning, the deadly floods have taken the lives of around 70 people with dozens still missing, many from Camp Mystic, along the river. The Associated Press reported that the estimated number of fatalities is expected to increase over the next few days.
The NWS has activated several flood warnings across Texas, many of which are expected to last until at least Monday morning. Flooding is the second deadliest weather hazard in the United States after extreme heat, with most fatalities occurring when vehicles are swept away by rising waters.
A man surveys damage left by a raging Guadalupe River on July 4 in Kerrville, Texas.
A man surveys damage left by a raging Guadalupe River on July 4 in Kerrville, Texas.
AP Photo/Eric Gay
What To Know
"This part of the Texas Hill Country is very prone to flash flooding because of the rugged terrain and rocky landscape," Burgess told Newsweek.
She referred to Kerrville, which was hit especially hard, as part of "flash flood alley," a term local meteorologists and experts have called the region.
She noted that, while flooding like this "doesn't happen often," large scale ones "have occurred at least four times in the last 50 years."
"Kerrville actually had a higher crest of 37.4" in a July 1987 event where 10 campers were lost downstream," Burgess told Newsweek. The crest refers to the highest level a river reaches before it goes back down.
She added: "This flood resembled all of those previous events, although we have a much higher population now compared to 40 or 50 years ago."
During the 1987 flood, about 11 inches of rain fell on the area, sending buses of teenagers fleeing from the Pot O' Gold Christian Camp near Comfort, Texas, into the water. Search-and-rescue crews saved dozens, but 10 teenagers died.
"Each flood event of this magnitude has occurred in the month of June, July or August, and usually has some kind of tropical characteristic with it," Burgess noted, adding that "remnants of former Tropical Storm Barry that made landfall in Mexico last week and that circulation is still spinning across Texas today."
By early morning Friday, between 10 and 12 inches of rain fell in the region. Local news station KSAT meteorologists identified some rural areas that experienced 13 inches of rain.
Burgess also noted to CNN that the Guadalupe River is bedded with limestone rather than mud, "so it acts like concrete or a street." The river, which is approximately 250 miles, typically has a fast stream as it flows over limestone.
The amount of water that fell rapidly on Friday is estimated around 100 billion gallons, an enormous volume that almost doubles the daily flow over Niagara Falls, according to KSAT.
The high-volume rainfall has left dozens of people killed, missing, and displaced. More than 850 people have been rescued in the last 36 hours, with search crews using helicopters, boats, and drones to locate victims and rescue people stranded in trees and isolated camps.
President Donald Trump issued a "Major Disaster Declaration" over the deadly floods on Sunday.
What People Are Saying
Representative Joaquin Castro, a Texas Democrat, told CNN on Sunday: "Obviously the priority is on making sure that those girls are found and are saved —and anybody else who may be missing at this point—and then I think after that, we have to figure out in the future how we make sure that it doesn't happen again."
Senator Ted Cruz, a Texas Republican, wrote in an X, formerly Twitter, post on Saturday: "Heidi and I continue to lift up in prayer the families of the victims. It is imperative that all Texans heed the warnings and guidance of law enforcement. Please stay safe."
FEMA Region 6, in Texas, wrote in an X post on Sunday: "Floodwaters carry hidden dangers—contaminants, debris, and power risks. Stay out of flooded areas. Stay alert. Stay safe."
Pope Leo XIV said on Sunday: "I would like to express sincere condolences to all the families who have lost loved ones—in particular their daughters who were at summer camp—in the disaster caused by the flooding of the Guadalupe River in Texas in the United States," the pope said during his Sunday Angelus prayer at the Vatican."
What Happens Next?
Multiple local, state and federal agencies are continuing to search for survivors among the flood debris.