ILO cuts projection in 2025 global employment growth from 1.7% to 1.5%
This translates into a reduction in global employment growth from 1.7 per cent to 1.5 per cent this year.
ILO recently revised its global employment forecast for 2025, projecting the creation of 53 million jobs instead of 60 million estimated earlier, translating into a reduction in global employment growth from 1.7 per cent to 1.5 per cent. Nearly 84 million jobs across 71 countries tied to US consumer demand are now increasingly at risk of disruption due to elevated trade tensions, ILO said.
The drop—the equivalent of around 7 million fewer additional jobs—reflects a downgraded global economic outlook, as gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected at 2.8 per cent—down from a previous projection of 3.2 per cent.
ILO's latest employment estimates, issued in its new World Employment and Social Outlook (WESO) Update, are based on economic growth projections from the recently released International Monetary Fund's (IMF) April 2025 World Economic Outlook.
In addition, the ILO estimates that close to 84 million jobs across 71 countries are directly or indirectly tied to US consumer demand. These jobs—and the incomes they support—are now increasingly at risk of disruption due to elevated trade tensions, an ILO release said.
The Asia-Pacific region is where most of these jobs—56 million—are concentrated. Canada and Mexico, however, have the highest share of jobs—17.1 per cent—that are exposed.
'We know that the global economy is growing at a slower pace than we had anticipated it would. Our report now tells us that if geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions continue, and if we do not address fundamental questions that are reshaping the world of work, then they will most certainly have negative ripple effects on labour markets worldwide,' said ILO director general Gilbert F Houngbo.
The report also highlights troubling trends in income distribution. The labour income share—which is the proportion of GDP going to workers—fell globally from 53 per cent in 2014 to 52.4 per cent in 2024.
Africa and the Americas saw the largest declines. Had this share remained unchanged, labour income globally would have been $1 trillion higher in 2024, or $290 more per worker in constant purchasing power terms.
This erosion in the share of global income going to workers puts upward pressure on inequality and highlights a disconnect between economic growth and worker compensation, ILO noted.
The report points to a shift in employment towards high-skilled jobs. Women are leading this trend. Between 2013 and 2023, the share of women employed in high-skilled occupations rose from 21.2 to 23.2 per cent, while the proportion of men in high-skilled occupations was around 18 per cent in 2023.
Yet occupational segregation persists, with women underrepresented in sectors such as construction and overrepresented in clerical and caregiving roles.
And while educational attainment continues to rise worldwide, the labour market remains characterised by significant educational mismatches, ILO said.
The report also addresses the effects of new technologies on the world of work. It finds that nearly one in four workers may find their jobs transformed by generative artificial intelligence (AI).
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