YouGov poll shows Tasmania set for another hung parliament, with Labor leader preferred in minority

Australia Broadcast Center

2 days ago

The final public poll of the Tasmanian election campaign shows the state is heading for another hung parliament with a potentially larger crossbench.
YouGov has released a poll of 931 voters, taken between July 7 and 18 — its second poll of the campaign.
It shows Labor has lost support, while the Liberals have remained steady.
The statewide first preference result was 31 per cent for the Liberals, 30 per cent for Labor, 20 per cent for independents, the Greens with 16 per cent, and 2 per cent for the Nationals.
Compared with the YouGov poll from July 1, Labor has lost 4 per cent of support, while the Liberal and Greens results have remained the same and independents have picked up 2 per cent.
The poll also included a "forced choice" question about who voters would prefer to be premier in minority government.
Labor leader Dean Winter was preferred by 55 per cent of respondents, with Premier Jeremy Rockliff preferred by 45 per cent.
This matched the poll's statewide two-party preferred of 55 per cent to Labor, 45 per cent to the Liberals.
The poll also had Mr Rockliff with a minus 19 net satisfaction, and Mr Winter with minus 13.
Paul Smith, from YouGov, said voters were dissatisfied with both leaders, meaning a larger crossbench looked likely.
"There is a clear undercurrent that voters want change.
"Voters are dissatisfied with both Dean Winter and Jeremy Rockliff, but they're more dissatisfied with Jeremy Rockliff. That is some sort of basis for perhaps Mr Winter being able to put forward that people do prefer him over Mr Rockliff."
The poll has a 3.2 per cent margin of error.
Polling analyst Kevin Bonham said Labor's loss of 4 per cent from the July 1 YouGov poll was "not disastrous" for the party.
"If it ended up with 31 per cent Liberal and 30 per cent Labor, I would expect that the Liberals lose at least one seat, and Labor could gain one or two," Dr Bonham said.
"It's also quite a strong poll for the Greens: if it's accurate, I would expect the Greens are a good chance at winning in Braddon and getting six seats [overall]."
Dr Bonham described the preferred minority premier result as largely as expected, that Mr Rockliff's net dissatisfaction result appeared "extremely low", and that YouGov's method could slightly favour independents.
He said the potential shape of the crossbench would be difficult for the Liberals to navigate if the party lost a seat.
"The Liberals would not have a path to government, other than if Labor and the Greens refuse to work together," Dr Bonham said.
Both the Liberals and Labor have ruled out formal agreements with the Greens for government, but have left the door open for governing without a formal deal.
The last election resulted in 14 seats for the Liberals, 10 for Labor, five for the Greens, three for the Jacqui Lambie Network — which is not running at this election — and three independents.
The YouGov poll also included a question about the Liberals' promised state-owned insurance company, TasInsure, showing 41 per cent support, 29 per cent opposition and 30 per cent unsure.
The wording described that it was intended to "tackle soaring premiums", which Dr Bonham said would have resulted in a more positive response.
DemosAU carried out the only other polling that was fully publicly released during the campaign, and that was not commissioned by a political party.
Its poll of 3,421 voters between July 6 and 10 had a markedly different result from YouGov, showing the Liberals on 34.9 per cent, Labor on 24.7 per cent, independents with 20.3 per cent and the Greens with 15.6 per cent.
Liberal-commissioned polling by EMRS — now owned by Liberal-aligned Font PR — had weekly results during the campaign and released rolling averaged results on Thursday.
For the past two weeks of the campaign, EMRS had the Liberals on 37 per cent, Labor on 26 per cent, independents on 19 per cent and the Greens on 14 per cent.