Tropical Storm Dexter Update as Chances of Cyclone Changes
Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content.
The chances of invest 93L—a disturbance over the Gulf Coast with the potential to become Tropical Storm Dexter—developing into a cyclone have fallen, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
Why It Matters
The Atlantic Hurricane season has seen three named systems so far in 2025: Andrea, Barry and Chantal. Chantal brought heavy rain and flooding to North Carolina earlier this month.
What To Know
As of early Wednesday, the NHC was giving the system a "medium," 40 percent chance of cyclone development. This was a four-fold increase from Monday, when chances were reported at 10 percent.
But in an update on Thursday morning, the NHC had downgraded chances to 30 percent, or "low."
This NHC map highlights the area in question.
This NHC map highlights the area in question.
National Hurricane Center
"Recent satellite wind data, in combination with surface and radar observations, indicate the broad area of low pressure located over the far northern portion of the Gulf remains quite disorganized," the agency said. "In addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains displaced well west of the broad center."
"While some additional development of this system remains possible over the next 12-24 hours, its current structure suggests its chances of developing into a tropical depression before it reaches the Louisiana coast later today are decreasing."
However, the NHC added that regardless of whether the system develops further, it could bring heavy rainfall and localized flash-flooding to parts of the north-central Gulf Coast through Friday.
The agency gave a 30 percent chance of cyclone formation within the next seven days, with the same likelihood projected for the next 48 hours.
What People Are Saying
Meteorologist Dylan Federico said on X, on Wednesday: "Invest #93L looks like a plate of scrambled eggs this morning on satellite. I thought it made a run at depression status yesterday, but this thing is a mess and has a long way to go before being named #Dexter.
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said, in an advisory shared with Newsweek on Wednesday: "Flash flooding is a major concern through the end of the week into the weekend as this tropical rainstorm moves across the Gulf coast and inches closer to Louisiana.
"Do not wait for this tropical rainstorm to strengthen to a named tropical storm before taking action. We expect serious flooding issues regardless, even if does not get an official name designation."
What Happens Next
Forecasts are subject to change, and meteorologists will continue to monitor the system.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June through November, while the Eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15 and lasts until November 30.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Forecasters watching 2 areas of tropical moisture with potential for development: Will Florida feel impacts?
The Brief Moisture from what was Invest 93L may return to Florida early next week and could strengthen as it re-enters the Gulf next week. A separate disorganized wave in the Central Atlantic Ocean has a 20% chace of development over the next seven days, the National Hurricane Center says. Saharan Dust continues to limit Atlantic activity — for now. ORLANDO, Fla. - Florida could feel impacts from an area of tropical moisture in the coming days that includes remnants of the same system that dumped rain over the state last weekend. Forecasters are also watching another developing tropical wave in the distant Atlantic Ocean. Tracking the Tropics: What to watch for next week What we know Meteorologists are monitoring a pocket of lingering tropical moisture tied to former Invest 93L, which soaked parts of Florida earlier this week. CLICK TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX LOCAL APP Though the system moved into the Gulf and Deep South, moisture remains in the atmosphere and could drift back toward Florida early next week. The FOX 35 Storm Team says there is a chance this system could strengthen as it re-enters the Gulf next week. A separate disorganized wave in the Atlantic is also on the radar, with low chances of development. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 10% chance of formation over the next two days, and 20% over seven days. What we don't know It's still uncertain whether either system will develop further. Forecast models vary, and environmental factors such as Saharan Dust and wind shear are inhibiting tropical growth. The track and strength of the returning moisture near Florida remain in flux, and forecasters say it's too early to predict specific impacts. The backstory Invest 93L was a tropical wave that brought heavy rainfall to Florida earlier in the week before moving into the Gulf. Although it never developed into a depression, its remnants are circulating around a ridge pattern and could swing back into Florida. Big picture view The Gulf's warm waters continue to pose a concern, as they can fuel storm development quickly. At the same time, Saharan Dust is playing a suppressive role, keeping activity relatively low for now. This dust could also enhance sunrises and sunsets across Central Florida in the coming days. Tropical systems have been relatively quiet this season so far, with Andrea, Barry, and Chantal already named. Dexter is next on the list, but no current disturbance appears ready to claim that designation. What they're saying FOX 35 Storm Team meteorologists are tracking both areas of tropical moisture for any future impacts on the Sunshine State. "As we move into Tuesday and Wednesday, moisture from what was Invest 93L could swing back our way," said FOX 35 meteorologist T.J. Springer. "It's not out of the question for it to become a depression." Moisture from former Invest 93L is circulating clockwise around a ridge of high pressure. It could impact Florida as it approaches from the northeast and then draws energy from warmer-than-average waters in the Gulf. SIGN-UP FOR FOX 35'S BREAKING NEWS, DAILY NEWS NEWSLETTERS "The Gulf is extremely warm, and that energy could support development," Springer added. "It's following a familiar path around the ridge, and we'll continue to monitor it." It is too early to tell is the tropical wave in the Central Atlantic will have any impacts on Florida. "This is a cluster of thunderstorms that has very little organization," said FOX 35 meteorologist Laurel Blanchard. " It looks to encounter a more hostile environment later next week that should limit any sort of major development." The Source This story was written based on information shared by the National Hurricane Center and the FOX 35 Storm the daily Crossword
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Chances Of Tropical Development Near The Lesser Antilles This Week Remain Slim
We're watching for development of a tropical wave in the middle of the Atlantic into what could be the season's next tropical depression or storm, however, the chances remain slim. The disorganized wave is located well over 500 miles east of Barbados, or roughly halfway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa. It has winds of up to 40 mph in a small area of thunderstorms near the wave axis. (MORE: What is a Tropical Wave?) Conditions are marginally favorable for further development as this wave moves westward at 10 mph. For now, the threat of this disturbance becoming anything more than a rainmaker is low. This is not a threat to the United States. It will be guided along the southern periphery of the Bermuda High on a westward path. The tropical wave will reach the Caribbean around Thursday. By the time it nears the Caribbean, wind shear is expected to increase, making it more difficult to produce dangerous conditions and intensify. Several inches of rain are likely on the islands that this disturbance passes over. An increase in swells and rip current potential are expected late week near the Lesser Antilles. These effects may be confined to a smaller area given the wave's smaller size. Computer models are not currently expecting much sustained intensification near the islands, so wind may not be a major threat there. We'll keep an eye on it. The next tropical storm will be named "Dexter." (MORE: From Thunderstorms To Major Storm: The Life Cycle Of A Hurricane) Nearing August: Tropical Wave Development Typically Increases There is a notable increase in tropical activity in the southern Atlantic throughout late July and into early August. This is because dusty, dry, Saharan air – one of the Atlantic's biggest limiting factors – typically disperses and allows tropical waves to produce tall thunderstorms. These thunderstorms lead to a healthier system and could eventually lead to the formation of a tropical depression or storm. At the same time, water temperatures are often near their annual peak and wind shear is often decreasing. Development chances also increase in the Gulf and western Atlantic as we approach August. Jonathan Belles has been a digital meteorologist for for 9 years and also assists in the production of videos for The Weather Channel en español. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.
CNN
2 hours ago
- CNN
This is the summer of flooding across the US, and scientists know why
Storms Climate change Air quality PollutionFacebookTweetLink Follow Once synonymous with leisure and reprieve, summer has increasingly become a season marked by anxiety and disruption. Fossil fuel pollution — alongside other compounding factors — has transformed these months into a time of mounting peril, punctuated by relentless heat waves, rampant wildfires and catastrophic flooding. This summer, in particular, has been defined by a tragic surge in deadly flash floods across the United States, underscoring the escalating volatility of our warming world. It's no accident this is the summer of flooding, climate scientists say, with 100-year to 1,000-year deluges happening nearly simultaneously in multiple states on multiple days. Large parts of the US have seen an unusually humid summer with record amounts of moisture in the air. When cold fronts and other weather systems come along, that moisture can get wrung out, like squeezing a water-laden sponge, yielding heavy and often highly localized downpours. For much of the summer, the atmospheric conditions over the US have funneled humid air north from the unusually warm Gulf and western Atlantic, including the Gulf Stream, UCLA climate researcher Daniel Swain told CNN. This has yielded unusually high levels of moisture at all levels of the atmosphere across the US east of the Rockies, Swain said. It has led to record levels of what meteorologists call precipitable water, which is the amount of rain that would result from instantaneously extracting all the water in the air. This pattern has led to one flash flood after another. First and foremost, there was the devastating Texas flood that killed more than 130 people on the night of July 4. But flash flood events have been focused elsewhere as well. Three people were killed in a flash flood related to torrential rains falling on a wildfire burn scar in Ruidoso, New Mexico, on July 8. Some major roads in Chicago were suddenly under water when a 1,000-year rainfall event struck in early July. In portions of North Carolina, the remnants of Tropical Storm Chantal led to deadly heavy rain and flooding the same weekend as the Texas tragedy. In New York City, water rushed into the subway tunnels when the city saw its second-heaviest rainfall total in one hour on July 14, with widespread flash flooding lasting into the 15th. And this past week, it was Kansas City's turn to flood on July 17. Some of these floods resulted from rainfall that has a return frequency of about 1,000 years, meaning it has just a 0.1% chance of occurring in any given year. But climate change is loading the dice in favor of extreme precipitation. 'When we talk about e.g. '1000 year' events, we're talking about the likelihood of these events in the absence of human-caused warming (i.e. how often we would expect them from natural variability alone),' said climate scientist Michael Mann of the University of Pennsylvania. 'These events are of course much more frequent *because* of human-caused warming,' he said in an email. But his research has identified other factors, such as persistent large-scale weather patterns known as 'atmospheric resonance,' that can make extreme weather, including floods, even more likely. Just as sound waves or ocean waves can resonate and reinforce each other, atmospheric resonance can happen to undulating jet stream patterns in the upper atmosphere, resulting in weather systems that stay in place for weeks. A recent study Mann worked on found such weather patterns have tripled in incidence since the mid-20th century during the summer months. The problem is these patterns are 'not necessarily well-captured in climate models,' he said. This increases uncertainty about future projections for extreme weather trends. The influence of climate change on heavy rainfall is most evident when it comes to short duration extreme events, like what has happened repeatedly this summer, according to Swain. 'It is not average precipitation that really is most affected by climate change,' Swain said. 'It truly is mathematically correct that the more extreme the rain event, the clearer the connection to climate change is.' The physics of how global warming affects heavy precipitation events is well known, according to climate scientist Kate Marvel. 'This is almost a textbook example of climate change impacts,' she told CNN. 'The science behind it is so basic you can see it in daily life. Warm water drives more evaporation — the bathroom gets much steamier after a hot bath than a cold one,' she said. 'Warm air contains more water vapor — a cold beer gets wet on the outside on a hot day, because when air comes into contact with the cooler surface, it has to condense out its water vapor,' Marvel said. 'Warm ground makes it easier for moist air to balloon upwards – this is why thunderstorms happen on hot summer afternoons. Put these all together, and you get the perfect conditions for torrential rain,' Marvel, author of the new climate book 'Human Nature,' said. 'Whether a downpour turns into a catastrophic flood depends on a lot of things: how porous the ground is, the topography of the area, the people and things in harm's way. But there is absolutely no doubt that climate change, caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases, is making extreme rainfall more extreme.'
