The psychology of decision-making

Observer

12-07-2025

A friend recently shared with me his experience helping his son make a critical decision: choosing a wife.
The young man, after not meeting the woman of his dreams on his own, decided to consult his parents to recommend a future wife for him.
He gave this mother a short list of preferences — age, employment and general lifestyle compatibility. The parents, while preferring that their son take full ownership of such a life-altering choice, were mindful that such a decision can be challenging, especially when the young man kept talking about the failed marriages of his friends.
This situation reminded me of a book titled 'How to Decide' by Annie Duke. The author argues that most people don't have a specific method for making decisions; some simply go with their gut feeling, or use a pros and cons list, to decide on something. In reality, emotional decisions — like marriage — require both structure and self-awareness.
One of the book's key messages is that every decision has a range of possible outcomes, such as good, bad, ugly, or anything in between.
However, our perception of how that outcome was achieved changes in retrospect, so we often mistake a good outcome for a good decision. This is called 'resulting', which assumes that success means we chose well and failure means we didn't.
But in reality, a thoughtful decision can lead to a poor outcome due to factors beyond our control, just as a reckless decision can, by chance, work out well. The young man's fear made him focus on failed relationships he'd seen, forgetting that those outcomes didn't necessarily mean the decisions behind them were wrong.
Another important point the author emphasises is that uncertainty is part of every major decision. Rather than waiting for perfect clarity, which may never come, we must gather what information we can, define our values and then make the best choice possible under the circumstances.
The young man had already taken a helpful step by listing his priorities. The next step is to rank them: Which qualities are essential and which are negotiable? What would he be willing to compromise on if other values were strongly met? The book also encourages the use of a 'decision group' — a small, trusted circle that can provide input, challenge assumptions and prevent emotional bias. The young man's parents acted in this capacity. Their role wasn't to decide for him, but to reflect back his own thoughts, provide perspective and help him avoid the trap of letting fear take charge of his life.
Finally, the book reminds us that the best decisions don't promise certainty; they simply improve our odds. By thinking clearly, reflecting honestly and consulting wisely, we set ourselves up not for perfection, but for resilience, so we can live with our choices, regardless of the consequences.
In my opinion, whether you are choosing a spouse, a job, or a new path in life, you will not be able to eliminate risks, but you can improve how you navigate them.
And that, more than anything, is the mark of a wise decision-maker.