Why an electoral boundary review may have major impacts for Queensland voters and politicians

Australia Broadcast Center

2 days ago

A shake up is on the way for Queensland politics.
There's an electoral boundary review hanging over the heads of the state's politicians.
The redrawing of an MP's electorate can end their careers or make a once comfortably held seat a knife edge fight to retain.
According to a new discussion paper released by the redistribution commission, over a third of seats in state parliament face the prospect of some sort of change.
That's because they either have too many or too few people living in their boundaries – or they are projected to at some point in the next seven years.
For a seat to be out of quota, they have to be either 10 per cent above or below the average number of voters in each seat.
As it currently stands, 14 of the state's 93 electorates are already out of quota, which means they must change during this redistribution.
The most high-profile of the MPs on this list is Opposition Leader Steven Miles, with his seat of Murrumba, north of Brisbane, about 18.8 per cent above quota.
With its population only set to grow further, the seat will need to shrink.
Labor isn't too worried about changes to this district, which it holds with a healthy margin in what is relatively safe territory for the party.
But one electorate it does have some concern for is Gaven.
It is the only red spot in a sea of blue in the LNP-dominated Gold Coast.
It's held by high-profile MP Meaghan Scanlon, who is considered by some as a potential future Labor leader.
The seat is already 11.55 per cent below quota and is set to fall further by 2032 — which means change is inevitable.
Given Ms Scanlon holds Gaven with a tiny margin of 0.7 per cent, she is already facing a tough fight to retain the seat regardless of the complications a redistribution could bring.
When the last redistribution occurred in 2017, it resulted in some major changes.
Most notably, the Brisbane seats of Mount Coot-tha and Indooroopilly were abolished — and essentially merged to create the new electorate of Maiwar.
Mount Coot-tha was held by Labor's Steven Miles, who was then a rising star in the Palaszczuk government as environment minister.
Indooroopilly was held by the LNP's Scott Emerson, who then the shadow treasurer and had previously served as transport minister in the Newman government.
Mr Miles elected to leave the area and relocate to the much safer seat of Murrumba in the Moreton Bay region rather than face an uncertain battle in Maiwar.
Mr Emerson, however, chose to stay in Maiwar and paid the price, with voters ousting him from parliament.
Neither Labor nor the LNP actually ended up winning the new seat, with the Greens clinching it instead.
Mr Miles made the right move for his political career and went on to become premier, while the redistribution played a crucial role in Mr Emerson's downfall.
Looking back on it now, Mr Emerson acknowledged the changes in boundaries — plus the introduction of compulsory preferential voting in 2017 — cost him his seat.
He said he was not willing to move to a safer electorate to save his political career.
"In my whole life, I've never been someone who cuts and runs," Mr Emerson said.
"This is where I wanted to represent. I knew it was going to be a tough fight.
"My view has always been along the lines that I wanted to represent the area where I lived and where my family had grown up and where I had worked in the local community."
The seat facing one of the biggest shake ups in the looming redistribution is Coomera on the Gold Coast.
It's held by the LNP's Michael Crandon — and is already 37.4 per cent above quota and is set to be a massive 59 per cent over by 2032.
It's not just Coomera set to change, but also those electorates located nearby.
The redistribution commission says the seat and its surrounding districts will need "significant adjustment".
Logan, held by Labor frontbencher Linus Power, is also bursting at the seams — sitting at 27.7 per cent over quota and forecast to hit 51 per cent over within seven years.
Jordan MP Charis Mulleun and Bundamba MP Lance McCallum are also facing changes to their Ipswich-based electorates, with both well over quota.
The discussion paper says it anticipates "significant boundary changes" will be needed to bring these seats into quota.
Among those that are under quota include Oodgeroo in the Redlands, held by the LNP's Amanda Stoker, and Mundingburra in Townsville, held by the LNP's Janelle Poole.
Stretton and Toohey on the south side of Brisbane, which are both Labor-held electorates, are also falling well below quota.
The projections show even more seats south of the Brisbane River are expected to fall under quota in the next seven years.
They include Chatsworth, held by Customer Services Minister Steve Minnikin, as well as Miller, held by Labor's health spokesperson Mark Bailey.
The same goes for Labor's Jess Pugh in Mount Ommaney, although the electorate of South Brisbane itself is projected to be 18.2 per cent over quota by 2032.
Just because a seat is falling under quota, it doesn't necessarily mean its population is going backwards.
It's mainly because it's not growing faster than other parts of the state.
Queensland University of Technology adjunct associate professor and former speaker of state parliament John Mickel expects an MP in Brisbane's inner south will be impacted by the redistribution.
"There's just not enough votes to go around. Somebody's got to lose a seat in there somewhere," he said.
Mr Mickel likened the redistribution process to playing three-dimensional chess due to its complexity and the multiple possible outcomes.
"If you lose part of your existing seat and retain the nucleus of your existing seat, you're a chance," he said.
He suggested complications arise when MPs pick up large parts of other seats in the redistribution.
"Even that is not a true science," he said.
"If you're a Labor member, for example, and you get moved into what was a safe National party area, you'll find that you get a swing to you in the area you picked up.
"Why? Because if it was safe, you can bet that there wasn't a large campaign mounted in that area and that the personal following is gone."