History, logic and form says NSW win. But three men will decide the series

Sydney Morning Herald

08-07-2025

I can't wait to watch the champion playmakers square off, and no one is under more pressure to perform than Cameron Munster and Nathan Cleary – they are the architects of their side's attack and the leading kick options.
Everyone in rugby league sends their condolences to the Munster family after Cameron's father, Steven, passed away suddenly. For the Queensland skipper to lead his state just a couple of days afterwards is such a huge effort.
But that's what Steven would want too; the Munster family knows the responsibility that comes with captaining the Maroons, and they know how mentally tough Cameron is.
And when he has that extra motivation, Munster just goes to another level.
When he came out of the tunnel in Perth, the Queensland No.6 had a look on his face that I had never seen before, and he went out and kept the series alive.
I think he's in for another huge performance on Wednesday night, and if he starts dancing down the Maroons left edge and getting offloads to a player such as Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, it's lights out for the Blues.
For NSW, it's up to Cleary to go with him. This is Nathan's chance to really stand up, own this game and deliver a result. I have no doubt he will.
The Blues have the advantage on the edges with Latrell Mitchell and Angus Crichton on the left, and Liam Martin and Stephen Crichton on the right.
Queensland's Rob Toia has defended well, but Brian To'o still scored three tries down his edge in Origin II, while Gehamat Shibasaki is an unknown on debut opposite Crichton.
For NSW, Cleary and Jarome Luai, the best time to go wide to their strike weapons will be around the halfway line when the defensive line can be passive and the wingers are dropping back for a kick.
I'd love to see NSW offloading more as well to create unstructured defence and pockets to attack – and again, this is on Cleary and Luai to be pushing up around the ball and encouraging their runners to get their arms free.
Queensland's Harry Grant controlled the ruck in slippery Perth conditions superbly, and it's an area the Blues playmakers need to match on what is a typically dewy Accor Stadium surface.
There's no rain forecast, but very little wind either on Wednesday night, which will make for slippery conditions and bring short, attacking kicks to the fore.
If moving the ball laterally becomes difficult, Cleary and Luai (who laid on two Origin II tries with short kicks) have the advantage.
The other man in the middle
There's just no avoiding it. Unfortunately, all eyes will be on Ashley Klein after the Blues were pinged with an 8-0 first-half penalty count in Origin II.
Most of those penalties were warranted, and NSW need to get both their discipline and errors in their half sorted.
The penalty counts for Origin I: 15 penalties and six set-restarts, and Origin II: 12 penalties and eight set-restarts, have felt well above what we usually get for these games.
And when you think about how influential a run of penalties is at NRL level, well, it's magnified at Origin level.
Just look back at the Blues' game two win at the MCG last year, they led 32-0 at halftime, with six tries scored off the back of penalties and Queensland mistakes.
If the referee can stay out of proceedings, and it's a big if, NSW have possibly the biggest advantage of all in Origin footy – which is all about kick reception footy when your wingers turn into front-rowers.
The Blues back three of Dylan Edwards, Brian To'o and Zac Lomax are just streets ahead of Tabuai-Fidow, Xavier Coates and Valentine Holmes when they're bringing the ball out of trouble.
In game one, the NSW trio ran for an extra 100 metres compared to their Queensland opponents. But in Perth, To'o covered more ground than the Maroons back three combined, and the Blues fullback and winger more than doubled the Queenslanders output.
That speaks to the extra work – a lot of it self-inflicted – that NSW had to do in game two. But there's no doubt they hold the backfield advantage, too.
The other match-up I can't wait for is Josh Papalii's Origin return opposite Payne Haas. It will be the job of both he and fellow prop Tino Fa'asuamaleaui to take on the Blues forward leader.
Loading
Big Papa brings intimidation and experience with him, and while I expect he'll only play 15-20 minutes, it will be all aggression and power planned to inspire the young forwards around him.
In all honesty, NSW should win. Throughout Queensland's eight straight series wins, the Maroons had the better players in key positions. This year, the Blues hold that advantage; they're at home and with a slippery surface and I think it will be a tight contest with a few tries deciding the game late.
So put your headphones on. Get the Metallica blaring. Because come 8pm on Wednesday night, nothing else matters.