IOC, BPCL, Other OMC Stocks Tank Up To 6% As Brent Crude Tops $75 On Israel-Iran Tensions

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Shares of OMCs tumbled on Friday as geopolitical tensions flared in the Middle East after Israel launched an airstrike on Iran
Shares of oil marketing companies (OMCs) tumbled on Friday as geopolitical tensions flared in the Middle East after Israel launched an airstrike on Iran. The development sent Brent crude futures soaring by over $6 to $75.36 per barrel, marking their highest level in several months.
Fears of potential supply disruptions, especially through the strategic Strait of Hormuz—a key global oil transit route—triggered sharp selloffs in OMC stocks. Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) led the decline, plunging 6.1% to Rs 299.20. Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) fell 5.3% to Rs 371.35, while Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL) dropped 3.9% to Rs 137.40.
Early Friday, the Israeli government confirmed it had carried out airstrikes on Iran, with explosions reported in the capital city of Tehran. The strikes were aimed at damaging Iran's nuclear facilities and weakening its ballistic missile capabilities, as part of Israel's broader strategic offensive.
In response, Iranian state media reported a state of heightened alert, amid growing fears of further military escalation between the two nations.
The attack sent shockwaves through global energy markets. Oil prices surged as investors factored in a risk premium, anticipating potential disruptions to supply routes and heightened geopolitical instability in the region.
At last count, Brent futures were trading at $78.48, up 13.16 per cent.
Emkay Global said oil prices continue to be volatile, with geopolitical risks (US-Iran, Russia-Ukraine) and trade developments (US-China) driving Brent currently from $60 a barrel a month ago, while OPEC+ continues to raise production.
ICICI Securities said strong GRMs and retail margins in June quarter imply robust earnings prospects for the OMCs for FY26 if these trends hold. 'Refining market still has demand and supply as broadly balanced, but H1FY26 is seeing strength owing to closures of large refineries across Europe and the US (see exhibit 3-4).
The sudden tightness in supplies of key transport fuels has driven unexpected strength in margins for gasoline/diesel and ATF, which in turn has driven theoretical GRMs for Indian refiners to multi-month highs in May," it said.
Additionally, retail fuel margins continue to benefit from a combination of lower crude prices and limited pressure to cut fuel prices domestically, it said.
'This, coupled with sharply lower LPG loss estimated in FY26, drives our renewed optimism for the OMCs. Reiterate BUY on all three names," the brokerage said.
Emkay Global said fundamental factors would prevail as it does not see any reason for upping FY26E Brent assumption of $70 per barrel. 'Despite shifting sentiments, the year so far has been solid for OMCs, with diesel-petrol marketing margin at Rs 9-13 per litre, LPG under-recoveries down to Rs 176m per cylinder (from Rs 247 in Q4FY25), and gasoline cracks moving up by over $2 per barrel QoQ," Emkay Global said.
Against this, lower oil prices would create inventory losses though BPCL-HPCL should not see more than a $1.5-2.0 per barrel impact if crude price closes at $70 a barrel. 'IOCL, due to an extended cycle, is likely to record a loss of up to $4 a barrel.
Nevertheless, Q1FY26E reported PAT for HPCL/BPCL/IOCL is likely to be 49 per cent/42 per cent/33 per cent of our full year estimate, with Q2 also looking good given that LPG losses would fall further to Rs 150 per cylinder," Emkay Global said.
The currency has also been stable, and any LPG subsidy or further fall in international LPG prices grants further upside potential for OMCs' earnings. 'We favor HPCL, followed by BPCL, and IOCL in that order, and reiterate BUY with TP of Rs 500/Rs 400/ Rs 170, respectively," it said.
First Published:
June 13, 2025, 09:39 IST