Broadcom Slides on Solid Earnings, AI Outlook Still Strong

Globe and Mail

2 days ago

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Given Broadcom's (NASDAQ: AVGO) explosive up moves after its past two earnings releases, many investors were likely hopeful to see fireworks again on June 5.
The chip giant's price action would disappoint, but it should not discourage investors.
Broadcom's fiscal Q2 earnings were solid by all accounts.
Additionally, management provided some helpful commentary, despite deflecting some of the analysts' most pressing questions.
Broadcom's Financials and Guidance Were Right on the Money
Both on the top and bottom lines, Broadcom's fiscal Q2 2025 results came in almost exactly in line with expectations. The company's revenues of $15 billion resulted in growth of above 20%. This barely beat growth expectations of just under 20%. The company's adjusted earnings per share of $1.58 beat expectations of $1.57.
The figure resulted in an earnings growth rate of under 44%, surpassing estimates of just under 43% growth.
In terms of guidance, the company forecasted revenue of approximately $15.8 billion for fiscal Q3. This implies a growth rate of 21%, a sprinkle above estimates.
Broadcom also predicted its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margin to come in at 'at least' 66%. This implies a small contraction from the 67% figure it achieved in fiscal Q2.
Tan's Takes: Business Remains Booming, but No Seismic Updates Revealed
Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Hock Tan said the company's three hyper-scale customers and four potential ones are 'unwavering' in their AI investment plans. This is true even with the current macroeconomic challenges. The company backed this up by providing AI semiconductor guidance of $5.1 billion in fiscal Q3, which would be an increase of 60%.
Additionally, the company confirmed that, based on current visibility, it expects this growth rate to continue through fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2026. This is a particularly positive sign, indicating that demand is not expected to slow down anytime soon.
However, to the chagrin of analysts, Tan firmly refused to give insights on when revenue contributions for its prospective customers might come. Tan said the company would likely not provide updates on this until sometime in fiscal 2026. He also refused to provide any type of updates to the company's serviceable addressable market (SAM) estimates.
Tan provided notable news on the company's infrastructure software segment, particularly when it came to moving VMware customers from perpetual licenses to subscriptions. This has been key to the company's software success.
Shifting customers to subscriptions boosts recurring revenue.
It also upsells them to a more comprehensive package. Now, 87% of the company's 10,000 largest VMware customers have transitioned to the subscription model, a significant increase from just 70% a quarter ago. Tan added that two-thirds of the overall customer base have transitioned, moderately up from 60% last quarter.
Another interesting highlight was the company's AI networking revenue. This came in strong at 40% of total AI revenue, the same as the prior quarter. The company expected this figure to drop closer to 30%, but it hasn't. The company continues to guide that, on average, AI networking will make up around 30% of total AI revenue over time.
Tan said the company was experiencing a positive surprise in AI networking. He said that 'scale-up' data center server architectures are increasingly adopting Ethernet. Scale-up refers to when server racks pack compute chips more densely.
Meanwhile, "scale-out" architectures increase computing capacity by adding more server racks across a data center. Scale-up architecture requires 5 to 10 times higher switch density than scale-out architectures. This creates a significant need for the company's new high-capacity Tomahawk 6 switch chips, which offer leading-edge port density and bandwidth.
Broadcom Shares Fall Moderately, But Remain Barely Off All-Time Highs
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By the end of after-hours trading, shares were down around 4%. Broadcom's share drop shows mild disappointment in its financials. It is also indicative of the fact that there was no groundbreaking news in the call.
Still, it's hard to be overly disappointed. The stock was trading very close to an all-time high before the result.
At the conclusion of after-hours trading, shares were down less than 5% from their all-time closing high. The market will want to see much larger beats to send shares soaring, as in past quarters.
Getting more information around contributions from prospective AI-chip customers could also do the trick. Potential analyst upgrades may also propel shares higher as information from these earnings gets digested further. Overall, things at Broadcom are going according to plan.
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