Confirmed Losses Of Russian Aircraft Mount After Ukrainian Drone Assault
You can catch up with our previous reporting about the operation and its aftermath here.
СБУ показала унікальні кадри спецоперації «Павутина», у результаті якої уражено 41 військовий літак стратегічної авіації рф
https://t.co/OSxqEsI9CDpic.twitter.com/aGSZNEsoX3
— СБ України (@ServiceSsu) June 4, 2025
The SBU claims that its drones used artificial intelligence (AI) during at least some aspects of the operation. 'During the operation, modern UAV control technology was used, which combines autonomous artificial intelligence algorithms and manual operator intervention,' the SBU said. 'In particular, some UAVs, due to signal loss, switched to performing the mission using artificial intelligence along a pre-planned route. After approaching and contacting a specifically designated target, the warhead was automatically triggered.'
While we cannot confirm this, TWZ has, in the past, detailed exactly how AI can be harnessed for lower-end drones.
Ukraine's SBU says its drones used AI during Operation Spiderweb: "During the operation, modern UAV control technology was used, which combines autonomous artificial intelligence algorithms and manual operator intervention."In particular, some UAVs, due to signal loss, switched…
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) June 4, 2025
Initially, Ukrainian authorities claimed to have hit 41 aircraft, in total, including Tu-95MS Bear-H and Tu-22M3 Backfire-C bombers, as well as A-50 Mainstay airborne early warning and control aircraft. However, these were clearly not all destroyed or even damaged.
Subsequently, Andriy Kovalenko, an official with Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, said that 'at least 13 Russian aircraft were destroyed.'
Among those aircraft, the new video confirms that several of the Tu-95MS bombers were already loaded with Kh-101 conventionally armed cruise missiles, ready for launch against Ukraine, as seen in the image below. This fact underlines how big a threat these aircraft are to Ukraine and reinforces the fact that they are legitimate targets.
Now, with the new satellite imagery, verification of at least some of these previous claims is becoming somewhat easier. Here's what we know so far for each of the airfields targeted:
Soon after the drone strikes, ground-level videos of Belaya, which is situated in Russia's eastern Irkutsk region, began to appear online, showing smoke rising from the base, confirming that at least something was hit.
Footage of a Ukrainian FPV strike drone flying towards Russia's Belaya Airbase, already heavily burning.The base, home to a number of bombers, was hit this afternoon. pic.twitter.com/JYFBqurknE
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 1, 2025
Thereafter, synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite imagery obtained by TWZ from the U.S.-based ICEYE US pointed to at least four Tu-95MS bombers having been destroyed or at least damaged at Belaya. However, the resolution and the nature of SAR, which does not show the same kinds of details that would be available in visual spectrum imagery, made it difficult to definitively determine the state of any of the aircraft. That has since changed.
Now, with new satellite imagery from Maxar, we can clearly see the remains of three destroyed Tu-95MS and four destroyed Tu-22M3 bombers at Belaya. While we cannot be certain of the operational status of the aircraft that were destroyed, most were arranged along the flight line or in blast pens among active aircraft, so there's a high possibility that these were frontline assets.
Additional satellite images of the Russian Belaya Air Base by Planet Labs. https://t.co/uyJVIa7lTb pic.twitter.com/NPOVwsLa5t
— Special Kherson Cat
(@bayraktar_1love) June 4, 2025
Belaya:https://t.co/xtKVeADnwD pic.twitter.com/e7HhBxCGJ8
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 4, 2025
5/ Additional high-resolution images from @AirbusDefence taken on 4 June over the Belaya airbase show an even clearer picture of destroyed Tu-95 and Tu-22 aircraft. pic.twitter.com/x1fXugxjDl
— Open Source Centre (@osc_london) June 4, 2025
On June 1, video footage emerged showing Olenya, located in far northwestern Russia near the Barents Sea, from the perspective of cameras on first-person-view (FPV) type drones. This earlier footage suggested that Olenya was among the hardest-hit bases, with the drone videos showing that Tu-95MS bombers and an An-12 Cub cargo aircraft had been targeted.
A satellite image of Olenya taken on June 3 from Planet Labs appeared to show three Tu-95MS and one An-12 damaged and/or destroyed, but was too low-resolution to be conclusive.
Now, additional satellite imagery from Airbus Defense and Space, Maxar, and Planet Labs provides a better understanding of the destruction at Olenya, with telltale burn marks on the tarmac consistent with the destruction of five aircraft, at least three of which can be confirmed as Tu-95MS bombers.
At opposite ends of the same flight line are further scorch marks, as seen in the oblique image in the embedded tweet below. Here, the nearest aircraft destroyed was likely the An-12, supported by a comparison with previous satellite imagery showing the transport intact in this location. It's not clear what aircraft might have been targeted at the other end of the flight line from the An-12 (the area seen at the very top of the frame in the oblique image). The most likely candidate is another Tu-95MS, which would appear to be consistent with some of the original video footage from the attack.
4/ Imagery taken on 23 May by @Satellogic of the Olenya airbase shows that two Tu-95 were at this location. A possible transport aircraft An-12 also appears to have been destroyed and another unidentified aircraft – both visible on the 3 June @AirbusDefence image posted above. pic.twitter.com/gQjBIraClM
— Open Source Centre (@osc_london) June 4, 2025
New raw footage of Russia's Olenya airbase burning today, filmed by a Ukrainian FPV strike drone.Four Tu-95 bombers and an An-22 transport plane can be seen ablaze. pic.twitter.com/GTki8t2XHl
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 1, 2025
Clear satellite imagery that might definitely show damage to aircraft at Ivanovo has yet to emerge, although a video released today by the SBU shows two A-50 being targeted. The location was presumably Ivanovo, where these radar planes are home-based.
Based on lower-resolution satellite imagery, there have been claims that two A-50s were at least hit at Ivanovo, although it's by no means certain that this is the case. If the aircraft were hit, there is currently no evidence that they were destroyed outright.
From new satellite imagesfrom Ivanovo's Severny air base, one A-50 AEW is confirmed to be destroyed and second one is hit, not sure if unrepairable.Other one was propably not in operational condition and was only parked in the airfield. https://t.co/m1gTQB9MUq pic.twitter.com/IqtewBxek7
— Tomi
(@TallbarFIN) June 3, 2025
At the same time, it's worth bearing in mind that Russia's fleet of A-50s — two examples of which have already been destroyed in the air by Ukraine — normally conducts its wartime operations from forward bases closer to Ukraine. While A-50s rotate in and out of Ivanovo periodically, examples that might have been hit there could also be inactive aircraft, which are known to be stored at the base.
the question is what ac they actually hit.There are a lot of inoperable A-50 at Ivanovo AB…we need evidence and no guessing https://t.co/HsfJVYNXKG pic.twitter.com/u4HZaPL1p5
— ben-reuter (@benreuter_IMINT) June 3, 2025
Indeed, the aircraft seen in the SBU video may well have been non-operational, with highly weathered radomes, while at least one aircraft doesn't have a full set of engines fitted.
Prior to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia was estimated to have nine A-50s, including a number of modernized A-50Us, in active service. As well as the two combat losses since then, one of these aircraft was damaged in a drone attack while on the ground at a base in Belarus, and its current status is unknown. Any further losses to the A-50 fleet will be very keenly felt.
A high-resolution satellite image of Dyagilevo from Planet Labs, taken on June 2 and reviewed by TWZ, showed no obvious signs of damage to any aircraft there. Still, some aircraft may have been damaged by shrapnel, against which relatively thin-skinned aircraft are notably vulnerable, and this would not necessarily be visible even in higher-resolution imagery.
Satellite images of
Dyagilevo Airbase as of June 2, 8:55 UTCThe airbase housed 3 Tu-95MS (Bear-H), 5 Tu-22M3 (Backfire-C), 14 Il-78M or Il-76MD (Midas or Candid) and 2 Su-30SM (Flanker-C).There was no serious damage after the Ukrainian special operation. In the right… pic.twitter.com/BUz2h0t9aj
— AviVector (@avivector) June 2, 2025
Clear satellite imagery showing potential damage to aircraft at Ukrainka is yet to emerge. What little visual evidence we have of this airfield after the drone strikes is inconclusive, although there are claims, at least, of a single Tu-95MS having been hit. For now, these claims need to be treated with caution.
#UkraineRussiaWar #Pokrovsk #Kupyansk #ChasovYar #Toretsk #Kursk #Belgorod #DniproA Tu-95MS was hit at the Ukrainka air base.It is more than 6,000 kilometers away from the Russian border pic.twitter.com/oNfJBg8AKh
— Koba (@Roberto05246129) June 3, 2025
It's also worth noting that the tires, frequently scattered over the wings and upper fuselages of Russian bombers and other combat aircraft, and which are employed in this manner to confuse image-matching seekers on incoming munitions, appear to have been misidentified by some observers as evidence of damage or scorch marks.
While cloud cover has hindered the opportunity for more rapid and verifiable analysis of the results of Operation Spiderweb, we can now say, with certainty, that at least six (and more likely seven) Tu-95MS and four Tu-22M3 bombers were destroyed. While far short of some of the earlier Ukrainian claims, this still represents a significant loss to Russia, not least because it's impossible to replace the Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3, both of which have been out of production for decades, as you can read more about here.
While the new SBU video shows multiple drones landing on their targets before presumably exploding, it is possible that some made it to their final destinations and failed to detonate.
Additional satellite imagery could well reveal more aircraft destroyed or damaged, although, with each passing day, Russia is better able to conceal the results of the raid, disposing of wreckage and moving aircraft around to make it that much harder to create an accurate tally.
Russians quickly replaced some of the destroyed aircraft with undamaged aircraft/decoys on their airfields, placing them in the exact same spots. pic.twitter.com/VvB9JgePzI
—
MilitaryNewsUA
(@front_ukrainian) June 4, 2025
At the same time, Russian aircrews are already making clear their reaction to the drone strikes, referencing the destroyed aircraft in the form of slogans on glide bombs launched by tactical combat aircraft, as seen below:
This is what Russian servicemen are now writing on FAB-500 UMPK guided aerial bombs installed under the wings of a Sukhoi Su-34 bomber:"For Tu-22M3""For Tu-95MS""For Long-Range Aviation""For the train" pic.twitter.com/6cJRM5wem0
— Status-6 (Military & Conflict News) (BlueSky too) (@Archer83Able) June 4, 2025
Whatever the final losses to the Russian Aerospace Forces, the Ukrainian drone strike will also have sent a shockwave all the way to the top of the Russian leadership, as well as military planners around the globe. The carefully planned operation visibly exposed the vulnerability of some of Russia's prime strategic assets. For now, at least, there appears to be no quick-fix solution to protecting these high-value aircraft. This may well force Russia toward an even more highly dispersed positioning model, which will severely limit the bombers' effectiveness for Ukraine operations.
Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com
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