Japan ruling party loses majority in disastrous election result
Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its partner Komeito won about 41 of the 125 seats contested, short of the 50 needed to retain a majority, local media said, with the populist party Sanseito projected to have made strong gains.
The results will likely fuel political instability in the world's fourth largest economy as a tariff deadline with the United States looms.
While the ballot does not directly determine whether prime minister Shigeru Ishiba's shaky minority government falls, it heaps pressure on the embattled leader who also lost control of the more-powerful lower house in October.
The LDP, which has ruled Japan for most of the post-war period, had its worst showing in 15 years in October's lower house election.
That has left Ishiba vulnerable to no-confidence motions that could topple his administration and trigger a fresh general election.
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Reuters
39 minutes ago
- Reuters
'Japanese First' party emerges as election force with tough immigration talk
TOKYO, July 21 (Reuters) - The fringe far-right Sanseito party emerged as one of the biggest winners in Japan's upper house election on Sunday, gaining support with warnings of a "silent invasion" of immigrants, and pledges for tax cuts and welfare spending. Birthed on YouTube during the COVID-19 pandemic spreading conspiracy theories about vaccinations and a cabal of global elites, the party broke into mainstream politics with its "Japanese First" campaign. Public broadcaster NHK projected the party to win as many as 22 seats, adding to the single lawmaker it secured in the 248-seat chamber three years ago. It has only three seats in the more powerful lower house. "The phrase Japanese First was meant to express rebuilding Japanese people's livelihoods by resisting globalism. I am not saying that we should completely ban foreigners or that every foreigner should get out of Japan," Sohei Kamiya, the party's 47-year-old leader, said in an interview with local broadcaster Nippon Television after the election. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner Komeito will likely lose their majority in the upper house, leaving them further beholden to opposition support following a lower house defeat in October. "Sanseito has become the talk of the town, and particularly here in America, because of the whole populist and anti-foreign sentiment. It's more of a weakness of the LDP and Ishiba than anything else," said Joshua Walker, head of the U.S. non-profit Japan Society. In polling ahead of Sunday's election, 29% of voters told NHK that social security and a declining birthrate were their biggest concern. A total of 28% said they worried about rising rice prices, which have doubled in the past year. Immigration was in joint fifth place with 7% of respondents pointing to it. "We were criticized as being xenophobic and discriminatory. The public came to understand that the media was wrong and Sanseito was right," Kamiya said. Kamiya's message grabbed voters frustrated with a weak economy and currency that has lured tourists in record numbers in recent years, further driving up prices that Japanese can ill afford, political analysts say. Japan's fast-ageing society has also seen foreign-born residents hit a record of about 3.8 million last year, though that is just 3% of the total population, a fraction of the corresponding proportion in the United States and Europe. Kamiya, a former supermarket manager and English teacher, told Reuters before the election that he had drawn inspiration from U.S. President Donald Trump's "bold political style". He has also drawn comparisons with Germany's AfD and Reform UK although right-wing populist policies have yet to take root in Japan as they have in Europe and the United States. Post-election, Kamiya said he plans to follow the example of Europe's emerging populist parties by building alliances with other small parties rather than work with an LDP administration, which has ruled for most of Japan's postwar history. Sanseito's focus on immigration has already shifted Japan's politics to the right. Just days before the vote, Ishiba's administration announced a new government taskforce to fight "crimes and disorderly conduct" by foreign nationals and his party has promised a target of "zero illegal foreigners". Kamiya, who won the party's first seat in 2022 after gaining notoriety for appearing to call for Japan's emperor to take concubines, has tried to tone down some controversial ideas formerly embraced by the party. During the campaign, Kamiya, however, faced a backlash for branding gender equality policies a mistake that encourage women to work and keep them from having children. To soften what he said was his "hot-blooded" image and to broaden support beyond the men in their twenties and thirties that form the core of Sanseito's support, Kamiya fielded a raft of female candidates on Sunday. Those included the single-named singer Saya, who clinched a seat in Tokyo. Like other opposition parties Sanseito called for tax cuts and an increase in child benefits, policies that led investors to fret about Japan's fiscal health and massive debt pile, but unlike them it has a far bigger online presence from where it can attack Japan's political establishment. Its YouTube channel has 400,000 followers, more than any other party on the platform and three times that of the LDP, according to Sanseito's upper house breakthrough, Kamiya said, is just the beginning. "We are gradually increasing our numbers and living up to people's expectations. By building a solid organization and securing 50 or 60 seats, I believe our policies will finally become reality," he said.
The Guardian
2 hours ago
- The Guardian
Japan's PM accepts ‘harsh result' of election as exit polls predict loss of upper house
Japan's shaky ruling coalition is likely to lose control of the upper house, exit polls showed after Sunday's election, potentially heralding political turmoil as a tariff deadline with the US looms. While the ballot does not directly determine whether prime minister Shigeru Ishiba's minority government falls, it heaps pressure on the embattled leader, who also lost control of the more powerful lower house in October. Ishiba's Liberal Democratic party (LDP) and coalition partner Komeito need 50 seats to secure the 248-seat upper chamber in an election where half the seats are up for grabs. They are forecast to hold 32 to 51 seats, the exit poll by public broadcaster NHK showed. Other broadcasters forecast the ruling coalition would return 41 to 43 seats. If the coalition drops below 46 seats it would mark its worst result since it was formed in 1999. That comes on top of its worst showing in 15 years in October's lower house election, a vote that has left Ishiba's administration vulnerable to no-confidence motions and calls from within his own party for leadership change. Speaking to NHK two hours after polls closed, Ishiba said he 'solemnly' accepted the 'harsh result'. Asked whether he intended to stay on as prime minister and party leader, he said 'that's right'. 'We are engaged in extremely critical tariff negotiations with the United States … we must never ruin these negotiations. It is only natural to devote our complete dedication and energy to realising our national interests,' he later told TV Tokyo. Japan, the world's fourth largest economy, faces a deadline of 1 August to strike a trade deal with the US or face punishing tariffs in its largest export market. The main opposition Constitutional Democratic party is projected to win 18 to 30 seats, from 22 held previously, NHK's exit poll showed. The far-right Sanseito party, birthed on YouTube a few years ago, has been the surprise package with its 'Japanese first' campaign and warnings about a 'silent invasion' of foreigners. It is forecast to win 10 to 15 seats in the chamber, up from one held previously, yet it holds only three seats in the lower house. Opposition parties advocating for tax cuts and welfare spending have struck a chord with voters, the exit polls showed, as rising consumer prices – particularly a jump in the cost of rice – have sowed frustration at the government's response. 'The LDP was largely playing defence in this election, being on the wrong side of a key voter issue,' said David Boling, a director at the consulting firm Eurasia Group. 'Polls show that most households want a cut to the consumption tax to address inflation, something that the LDP opposes. Opposition parties seized on it and hammered that message home.' The LDP has been urging for fiscal restraint, with one eye on a very jittery government bond market, as investors worry about Japan's ability to refinance the world's largest debt pile. Sanseito, which first emerged during the Covid pandemic spreading conspiracy theories about vaccinations and a cabal of global elites, has dragged once fringe political rhetoric into the mainstream and gained wider support among frustrated voters. It remains to be seen whether the party can follow the path of other far-right parties with which it has drawn comparisons, such as Germany's AFD and Reform UK. 'I am attending graduate school but there are no Japanese around me. All of them are foreigners,' said Yu Nagai, a 25-year-old student who voted for Sanseito earlier on Sunday. 'When I look at the way compensation and money are spent on foreigners, I think that Japanese people are a bit disrespected,' Nagai said after casting his ballot at a polling station in Tokyo's Shinjuku ward. In Japan, the world's oldest population, foreign-born residents hit a record of about 3.8 million last year. That is still just 3% of the total, a much smaller fraction than in the US and Europe, but comes amid a tourism boom that has made foreigners far more visible across the country.
Reuters
2 hours ago
- Reuters
VIEW Investors on Japan's upper house election outcome
SINGAPORE, July 20 (Reuters) - Japan's ruling coalition possibly lost its majority in the upper house, exit polls showed after Sunday's election, potentially heralding political and market turmoil as a deadline looms on tariff negotiations with the United States. While the ballot does not directly determine whether Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's shaky minority government falls, it may imply either policy paralysis or a bigger fiscal deficit depending on what the ruling party does next and how strong the opposition becomes. QUOTES: RONG REN GOH, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS, SINGAPORE: "The risk of coalition loss is well appreciated, and arguably priced in -- weaker yen, higher yields. We probably focus attention towards how the fiscally dovish parties do, to see whether the trade has more legs. "Now we have got to see who won the seats from them and the two parties markets probably will be focused on are the DPP and Sanseito. "But there are other drivers coming on the horizon for the yen, for example, the trade negotiations between the U.S. and Japan with the August deadline. "I think the difficulty comes from the rest of the parties forming another coalition but I'm admittedly not a political expert here and I don't know how easy it will be for the government to open the spigot. I suspect these are issues we will not have visibility on in the immediate future."
