Systematic Funds Poised to Deploy $48 Billion Into US Stocks
Commodity-trading advisors and other trend-following and macro funds are expected to put $48 billion into US equities in the next 30 days, near the top-decile of readings going back at least five years, data compiled by Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s Futures Strats Group show.
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22 minutes ago
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Chicago man dreams of running a fishing lodge despite 'zero knowledge' — Dave Ramsey only hears 'nightmare'
Small businesses are at the core of the American Dream, but that doesn't mean every single one of those golden business ideas should become a reality. That's what finance guru Dave Ramsey said on his show during a conversation with Caleb, a caller from Chicago who wanted advice on getting a down payment to start a new venture. Don't miss Thanks to Jeff Bezos, you can now become a landlord for as little as $100 — and no, you don't have to deal with tenants or fix freezers. Here's how I'm 49 years old and have nothing saved for retirement — what should I do? Don't panic. Here are 6 of the easiest ways you can catch up (and fast) Want an extra $1,300,000 when you retire? Dave Ramsey says this 7-step plan 'works every single time' to kill debt, get rich in America — and that 'anyone' can do it Caleb's business dream? Buying a fishing lodge in Canada. He said he'd never run a business before but loved to fish and hunt, and that he thought he could get $100,000 for a down payment on a lodge and run the venture for about half the year. He also told Ramsey that he talked to a few fishing lodge owners he knew who didn't own a business before buying their lodges, but Ramsey wasn't having any of it. When Ramsey learned Caleb had never run a business, let alone worked in the fishing or hospitality industry, Ramsey had a blunt assessment. 'You are about 90% dream and about 10% reality,' said Ramsey. And when asked about his business plan after getting the fishing lodge, Caleb's response was that many lodges are owned by seniors who don't know how to market their property. Caleb thinks he would be able to promote the lodge easily, but Ramsey wasn't buying it. 'There are three rules of business: it's gonna take twice as long as you think, it's gonna cost twice as much as you think, and you're not the exception,' said Ramsey. 'I'm not trying to be a dream killer, I love killing nightmares though.' The costs of running a small business Those three rules of business are lessons that Ramsey has uttered before. So many business dreamers think they have a great plan at the start, going as far as investing funds or taking out loans before realizing they've gone into debt for an idea that isn't landing with the target audience. In fact, more than 1 in 5 businesses in the U.S. fail during their first year. The dream of owning a business keeps America's free enterprise economy going, but sometimes those dreams can cloud the true costs of running a small business. New small businesses cost an average of $40,000 in their first year, including hiring staff, producing goods, getting inventory and securing a physical location. But those costs can vary wildly: for example, an online startup could cost as little as $100, while opening a restaurant could cost up to $750,000. Hiring staff can be one of the most expensive aspects of running your own shop. Adding an employee to payroll could cost you anywhere from $4,000 to $20,000, and that doesn't include salary or benefits costs. According to the U.S. Small Business Administration, total employee costs — including their wages, benefits and taxes — could amount to 1.25 to 1.4 times their actual salary. And you can count on putting at least some of your savings into a new business. The Kauffman Foundation reports that nearly two-thirds of small business owners have to dip into their personal or family savings to fund their venture. It's also worth noting that in 2023, 71% of small business owners were in debt. Read more: Americans are 'revenge saving' to survive — but millions only get a measly 1% on their savings. What to consider before starting a small business Deciding to start a small business requires thorough planning, financial smarts and self-honesty, as your idea may not work out the first time around. Let's break down the steps to take and things to consider before you open up shop. For starters, consider all your startup costs. These include any licenses and permits you might need, legal fees, equipment and inventory goods, marketing and promotional costs, and storefront deposits. Next, try to predict your ongoing or operational costs, such as your monthly rent, employee wages, inventory restocking, ongoing marketing, taxes and storefront maintenance. Don't forget to account for any 'hidden' costs, such as shrink, card processing fees or slow sales months. Talk extensively with other business owners in your industry and don't be afraid to ask them about how much they make, or where they might have gone wrong. Analyze industry trends and risks associated with your product or service and consider surveying potential customers. Finally, create both best- and worst-case financial projections, especially for that first vulnerable year of business. What to read next Robert Kiyosaki warns of 'massive unemployment' in the US due to the 'biggest change' in history — and says this 1 group of 'smart' Americans will get hit extra hard. Are you one of them? How much cash do you plan to keep on hand after you retire? Here are 3 of the biggest reasons you'll need a substantial stash of savings in retirement Rich, young Americans are ditching the stormy stock market — here are the alternative assets they're banking on instead Here are 5 'must have' items that Americans (almost) always overpay for — and very quickly regret. How many are hurting you? Stay in the know. Join 200,000+ readers and get the best of Moneywise sent straight to your inbox every week for free. This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
22 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Man worries he'll die young — should he spend $500k to retire early?
Faced with a history of family members dying young, Sarah's husband wants to spend US$500,000 to retire early. She called The Ramsey Show to find out if fear is a good enough reason. Sarah and her husband, 53, are in a strong financial position. Their house is paid off, they've saved millions for retirement and on paper, they're set. But his family history looms large. With his mother dying at 59 and both of his brothers dying at 55, he's starting to wonder if he should clock out of work early, just in case. That's why he's seriously considering spending the money to buy five years of his pension and retire early. The Ramsey Show hosts pushed back on the idea of making a major financial decision based on fear. 'None of us is promised tomorrow,' said Ken Coleman. Don't Miss Want an extra $1,300,000 when you retire? Dave Ramsey says this 7-step plan 'works every single time' to kill debt, get rich — and 'anyone' can do it The Canadian economy is showing signs of softening amid Trump's tariffs — protect your wallet with these 6 essential money moves (most of which you can complete in just minutes) I'm almost 50 and don't have enough retirement savings. What should I do? Don't panic. Here are 6 solid ways you can catch up Buying a pension to retire early? At the heart of the matter is Sarah's husband's fear of dying young. While she called to ask if they should buy the pension, the Ramsey hosts cautioned against making an emotional decision. 'I would not sacrifice the future here on the altar of the immediate,' said Coleman. 'We have to live in the moment, yes, but also not sacrifice our future based on some emotion that's not rooted in facts.' Jade Warshaw echoed his sentiment. 'I don't like that idea,' she said. 'Something about that doesn't feel right.' As the hosts dug deeper, it became clear the couple doesn't need the extra money from the pension to retire early. They own their home outright and have millions saved for retirement. If they spent US$500,000, they'd receive about US$6,000 per month in retirement income. But given their other assets, they likely don't need it to live comfortably. 'You don't need the money, so I certainly wouldn't buy it,' Warshaw said. 'Now it's up to you guys to decide: what is this US$6,000 a month worth to us?' If it's not worth working for seven more years, he could retire now, without buying the pension. Beyond the numbers, Warshaw encouraged the couple to consider using some of their money to assess and improve his health. Lifestyle changes and preventive care could help improve both his quality of life and longevity. Read more: Here are — and very quickly regret. How many are hurting you? When does it make sense to retire early? Retiring early can be appealing for many reasons. Maybe, like Sarah's husband, you're worried about your health. Maybe you feel burned out or want more time to travel. Whatever the reason, it's important to consider the financial side. If you've spent your working years saving, paid off your house and built a solid nest egg, early retirement might be an option. But if you're still in debt or have minimal savings, this might be the time to buckle down on your financial goals instead. In Sarah's case, her family's strong net worth and paid-off house make early retirement a real possibility. If they had called in with debt or little savings, the advice would've been different. According to a recent Northwestern Mutual survey, Americans believe they'll need US$1.26 million to retire comfortably. Canadians fare similarly, with a BMO survey reporting that they believe they'll need around CA$1.54 million to retire comfortably. Sarah and her husband are already in that ballpark, setting them apart from the average household. And if full retirement doesn't make sense just yet, a gradual approach might. Scaling back to part-time hours — say from 40 to 20 a week — can offer many of the same lifestyle benefits without jeopardizing your financial future. 1. The Ramsey Show Highlights: Pay $500,000 To Retire? (He's Afraid He's Going To Die Early)(June 13, 2025) 2. NorthWestern Mutual: Planning and Progress Study 2025 3. BMO: BMO Retirement Survey: Over Three Quarters of Canadians Worry They Will Not Have Enough Retirement Savings Amid Inflation (Feb 12, 2025) What To Read Next Are you rich enough to join the top 1%? Here's the net worth you need to rank among Canada's wealthiest — plus a few strategies to build that first-class portfolio Ramit Sethi says you should hit these 9 'money milestones' before 40 if you want to be rich — how many have you crossed off the list? Pet owners, here's how you can get up to 90% cashback on expensive emergency veterinary bills — and you can even get a free quote in 30 seconds This man from Toronto feels broke making $73,000 a year — his wife recently left him and he has an 18-month-old child. Here's what Dave Ramsey told him This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
22 minutes ago
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Tesla, Alphabet highlight earnings rush as market hovers near record highs: What to know this week
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) are both hovering near record highs as escalating tariffs and a growing debate about monetary policy have done little to shake markets. The Nasdaq Composite led the gains last week, rising more than 1.6%. Meanwhile the S&P 500 popped about 0.7% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was just above the flat line. In the week ahead, 112 S&P 500 companies are set to report quarterly results. Reports from Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG), Tesla (TSLA), and Chipotle (CMG) will be in focus. Meanwhile, a quiet week of economic data releases will be highlighted by updates on activity in the services and manufacturing sectors as the Federal Reserve enters its blackout period ahead of its July 29-30 policy meeting. Rate debate heats up On Thursday, Fed governor Christopher Waller made his clearest call yet for an interest rate cut in July. During a speech in New York, Waller said the Fed should cut rates in July, adding that the federal funds rate is more than one full percentage point higher than it should be. "With inflation near target and the upside risks to inflation limited, we should not wait until the labor market deteriorates before we cut the policy rate," Waller said. However, recent moves in market pricing have shown investors growing less optimistic about rate cuts. Last week, signs of stickiness in consumer inflation combined with a stronger-than-expected June retail sales report and weekly unemployment filings pushed out interest rate cut bets. As of Friday, markets were pricing in just a 5% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee would cut rates in July, per the CME FedWatch Tool. A month ago, markets had priced in closer to a 13% chance. "We expect the committee to arrive at a consensus to cut rates in September as the hawkish case weakens with the job market loosening further and no signs of tariffs spilling over into a broader inflationary trend," Citi chief US economist Andrew Hollenhorst wrote in a note to clients on Friday. Read more: How the Fed rate decision affects your bank accounts, loans, credit cards, and investments Earnings scorecard Big banks kicked off the second quarter earnings reporting period with a string of better-than-expected results. Netflix (NFLX) followed those up on Thursday night with an estimate-beating report. Both the streaming giant and the large financial banks said that the US consumer continues to hold strong. On an aggregate level, the S&P 500 is now pacing to report earnings growth of 5.6% compared to the same quarter a year ago, per FactSet data. This is above the 4.8% analysts were expecting just last week. Despite the strong reports, some stocks that had seen massive rallies heading into their reports saw a muted stock reaction in the trading session following their reports. For example, Netflix stock fell nearly 5% on Friday despite raising its full-year revenue guidance. Netflix stock had been up nearly 100% over the past year heading into the release. "An overall 'good' set of results and guide were not good enough for elevated expectations, in our view," William Blair analyst Ralph Schackart wrote in a note titled "Good Quarter, but Tough to Surpass High Expectations." With the broader market at record highs, weak stock reaction after solid earnings reports had been a concern among some Wall Street strategists heading into second quarter earnings. "The challenge is valuation: after a 30% rally off the April lows, the market is trading at 24.7 [trailing twelve-month] earnings, leaving strong results, as Financials demonstrated to start the season, just enough to maintain market altitude while slight disappointments risk material pullbacks," Julian Emanuel, who leads the equity, derivatives, and quantitative strategy team at Evercore ISI, wrote in a note to clients on Friday. Eyes on the 'broadening' Alphabet and Tesla will kick off quarterly releases for the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks. Once again, that cohort is expected to lead S&P 500 earnings growth this quarter. The Magnificent Seven is expected to have grown earnings by 14.1% compared to the year prior during the second quarter. The other 493 stocks in the index are expected to have seen just 3.4% year-over-year earnings growth. That means the prospect of S&P earnings surprising to the upside largely hinges on Big Tech results. But as the chart below shows, consensus is expecting the other 493 to begin driving a greater share of earnings growth over the next several quarters — a key call among Wall Street strategists hoping for a broadening of the stock market rally that has only come in spurts over the past several years. "It's time for earnings to deliver," Citi strategist Scott Chronert wrote in a note to clients. "Commentary will be key if we hope to see further upside in revisions, and hopefully, some inflections in cyclical sector growth to finally drive broadening. He added, "The issue is the setup. It feels like the market is moving ahead of positive developments. And as we continue to note, sentiment is elevated, and implicit growth expectations are high." Weekly calendar Monday Economic data: Leading index of economic indicators, June (-0.2% expected, -0.1% previously) Earnings: Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), Domino's Pizza (DPZ), Steel Dynamics (STLD), Verizon (VZ) Tuesday Economic data: Richmond Fed manufacturing index, July (-4 expected, -7 previously) Earnings: Capital One (COF), Coca-Cola (KO), DR Horton (DHI), Enphase Energy (ENPH), GM (GM), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Philip Morris International (PM), SAP (SAP), Texas Instruments (TXN) Wednesday Economic data: MBA mortgage applications, July 18 (-10% prior); Existing home sales month-over-month, June (-0.7% expected, +0.8% prior) Earnings: Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG), Tesla (TSLA), Chipotle (CMG), Alaska Airlines (ALK), AT&T (T), Fiserv (FI), Freeport-McMoran (FCX), GE Vernova (GEV), General Dynamics (GD), Hasbro (HAS), IBM (IBM), O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY), QuantumScape (QS) Thursday Economic data: Initial jobless claims, week ending July 19 (230,000 expected, 221,000 previously); Chicago Fed national activity index, June (-0.28 previously); S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, July preliminary (52.7 expected, 52.9 previously); S&P Global US services PMI, July preliminary (53.1 expected, 52.9 previously); S&P global US composite PMI, July preliminary (52.9 previously); New home sales, month over month, June (+4.3% expected, -13.7% previously) Earnings: American Airlines (AAL), Blackstone (BX), Deckers (DECK), Dow (DOW), Honeywell (HON), Intel (INTC), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), Nasdaq (NDAQ), Nokia (NOK), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Union Pacific (UNP) Friday Economic data: Durable goods orders, June preliminary (-10.8% expected, +16.4% prior) Earnings: Charter Communications (CHTR) Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. 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