Netflix's price hikes and ad tier will fuel a record quarter, analysts say
Wall Street expects Netflix to report a best-ever $11.1 billion in revenue and $7.08 in earnings per share when it shares second-quarter results on Thursday, based on consensus estimates compiled by S&P Global. That would be up from first-quarter marks of $10.5 billion and $6.61, respectively.
Analysts think Netflix's primary growth drivers this quarter will be the price increases it implemented earlier this year and its budding advertising tier. That tier drove nearly half of Netflix's subscriber growth in the US in the first five months of 2025, according to data firm Antenna.
The fast-growing, cheaper plan is on a strong trajectory and could eventually bring in more revenue per user than the ad-free tier, S&P Global media analyst Melissa Otto told Business Insider.
Price hikes and its ad tier have become Netflix's main growth catalysts as its password-sharing clampdown runs its course.
The streaming giant shattered its subscriber growth record in 2024 when it stopped people from sharing passwords. It generated 41 million net sign-ups last year, including 18.9 million in the fourth quarter.
However, Netflix has likely picked most of that low-hanging fruit. The company no longer shares its subscriber count, though Antenna estimates that its gross monthly additions have leveled off in the US. Its US resubscribe rate has also rebounded, which implies that it's getting fewer first-time sign-ups.
"Netflix has largely run out of individuals who were motivated to pay for Netflix for the first time because they lost access via another household's account," Antenna analysts wrote this week.
A Netflix spokesperson declined to comment ahead of earnings.
Life after the password-sharing crackdown
Netflix analysts are confident that the company can keep growing despite the benefits from its password crackdown wearing off.
"We continue to view Netflix as well-positioned given the company's unmatched scale in streaming, further runway for subscriber growth, significant opportunities in advertising, and sports/live," Bank of America's Jessica Reif Ehrlich wrote in a mid-July note.
Netflix should benefit from a strong second-half content slate that includes new seasons of hits "Wednesday" and "Stranger Things" as well as "Happy Gilmore 2" and a pair of live NFL games on Christmas, Reif Ehrlich wrote. It also has momentum from the new season of "Squid Game."
And although Netflix has lost viewership ground to YouTube in the last year, it's still crushing its paid peers. Its viewership share is about as much as Disney+, Hulu, and Amazon Prime Video combined.
"The viewership data has been strong, suggesting that engagement's good," UBS media analyst John Hodulik told BI. He added that this means cancellations should remain low.
Games could be another growth lever. Netflix hasn't mastered gaming yet, but many of its rivals aren't even trying.
"No one's really cracked the code on the streaming gaming, and it would seem that Netflix may be in a great position for that," Otto said.
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