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India's IIP growth recovers to 3% in March, FY25 output at 4-year low

India's IIP growth recovers to 3% in March, FY25 output at 4-year low

Growth in industrial production recovered slightly to 3 per cent in March from a six-month low of 2.72 per cent in February as a high base and lacklustre demand kept output expansion in check, data released by the statistics ministry on Monday showed.
In March 2024, the IIP had grown by 5.4 per cent.
The slight gain in the index of industrial production (IIP) for March came on the back of the acceleration in the electricity sector (6.3 per cent) and a mild uptick in that of the manufacturing sector (3 per cent). This was, however, offset by the dip in the growth of the mining sector (0.4 per cent).
According to use-based classification, infrastructure goods (8.8 per cent) and consumer durables (6.6 per cent) grew at a robust rate, while output in capital goods (2.4 per cent) decelerated.
The primary goods (3.1 per cent) and intermediate goods (2.3 per cent) saw slight acceleration in output. Meanwhile, contraction in the output of consumer non-durables (-4.7 per cent) deepened further and stayed in negative territory for the fourth month in a row.
Rajani Sinha, chief economist at Care Ratings, said that the manufacturing sector in March may have benefited from inventory accumulation by companies ahead of the anticipated announcement of reciprocal tariffs. However, monitoring consumption trends remains critical, given the ongoing unevenness in the domestic demand landscape.
'While rural demand is showing signs of recovery, lagging urban demand continues to be a concern. Factors such as declining inflation, healthy agricultural activity, lower borrowing costs, and a reduced income tax burden are expected to support consumption demand going forward,' she added.
Overall, IIP growth for FY25 stood at a four-year low of 4 per cent, thus reflecting subdued industrial growth during the year. In comparison, IIP had grown by 5.9 per cent in FY24.
Previously, IIP had contracted 8.4 per cent in FY21 during the pandemic.
Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda, says that industrial growth has been more subdued this year with the consumption side of the story having a major influence.
Data shows that the consumer non-durable segment contracted by 1.6 per cent in FY25, while growth in infrastructure industries (6.6 per cent), intermediate goods (4.1 per cent), capital goods (5.5 per cent) and primary goods (3.9 per cent) decelerated during the year.
However, the consumer durable segment did well for the year with growth of 7.9 per cent being driven by electronics, computers etc.
Starting April 2025, IIP data is now being released on the 28th of every month, thus bringing down the time lag from 42 days to 28 days from the reference month and also doing away with the second revision of IIP.
Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA Ratings, says that the lower response rate associated with the advancing of the data release has dampened the estimated growth rate for March, which may subsequently undergo a relatively larger revision as compared to that seen in the past.

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