Guangzhou and Shenzhen feel chill of global trade headwinds, miss China's GDP mark
Shenzhen, known as a major tech hub, recorded 5.1 per cent growth in the January to June period, while the manufacturing-heavy Guangzhou posted 3.8 per cent, compared to the national rate of 5.3 per cent, according to the South China Morning Post.
The slowdown in both cities has sparked calls for stronger policy support to revitalise business activity, amid weakening global demand and domestic consumption that remains too sluggish to compensate, analysts said.
'Shenzhen is facing dual headwinds from weakening global demand and a local property downturn, particularly in the commercial real estate sector, which has dragged down both exports and investment,' said Peng Peng, executive chairman of the Guangdong Society of Reform, a think tank linked to the provincial government.
The downturn in Shenzhen is especially stark.
Official city data cited fixed-asset investment plunging 10.9 per cent year-on-year, while real estate development tumbling 15.1 per cent — a sign of waning investor confidence.
Although the city's hi-tech industries posted over 35 per cent growth, exports dropped 7 per cent and total trade declined 1.1 per cent, underlining the ongoing strain from trade tensions and technology restrictions imposed by the United States.
'The decline in fixed investment in Shenzhen was somewhat unexpected, particularly the steep fall in real estate investment. Office vacancy rates in the city remain high,' Peng added.
In provincial capital Guangzhou, economic recovery remains uneven, with growth weighed down by weak performance in two of its core industries — autos and property.
Large-scale industrial firms in the city saw their value-added output increase 0.7 per cent year-on-year in the first half of 2025, ending a 15-month contraction streak. Property investment also turned positive, rising 4.1 per cent after three straight years of decline.
However, key sectors continue to struggle — especially the fuel-powered automobile industry, where output shrank 5.7 per cent, highlighting the challenges of industrial restructuring.
On a more positive note, Guangzhou's exports jumped 25.2 per cent year-on-year — the highest growth among China's top 10 trading cities.
Shipments to Africa, Asean and the European Union surged over 30 per cent, reflecting growing efforts to diversify beyond the US market.
'This rebound partly stems from a low base last year, but also from Guangzhou's export structure, which relies more on intermediate goods and less on consumer products,' said Wang Zhen, a researcher at the Shenzhen-based China Development Institute, in an interview with news portal Jiemian.com.
'That makes it less exposed than Shenzhen to global trade shocks.'
Long seen as a bellwether for China's economy and its global ties, Guangzhou has in recent years fallen behind the south-western city of Chongqing in total GDP output.
Whether either city can stage a rebound in the second half of the year will depend largely on improvements in trade flows and the recovery of core industries, Peng said.
'The stabilisation of the real estate market will take time. Foreign trade uncertainties persist, and employment and income prospects are not optimistic. Confidence is fragile, and a decline in consumption may become common,' he warned.
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