Phillies, meet the Windup Panic Spectrum. Plus: Yordan Alvarez not returning yet

New York Times

02-06-2025

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The Phillies phlailed, the Royals are calling up a masher, the Yankees and Dodgers made history and the Astros are … well, what is going on in Houston, anyway? I'm Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal. Welcome to The Windup!
When we sent our last edition of The Windup, the Phillies held the NL's best record. Not only is that no longer true, they don't even have the best record in their division.
At 36-23, they now trail the Mets (37-22) after being swept at home by the Brewers, including a 17-7 football score of a loss on Saturday.
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The good news: Despite being out of action since a hit-by-pitch on Tuesday, Bryce Harper is not expected to hit the IL. The bad news? Small-picture, it's all bad. After spending the first month-plus of the season with the game's most stable pitching staff, the Phillies are now attempting a slight pitching shuffle. From that link:
'The Phillies will shift Taijuan Walker to a one-inning setup role for the first time in his 13-year career while reinserting prospect Mick Abel into the rotation. Additionally, they removed veteran righty José Ruiz from the mix by designating him for assignment and added hard-throwing Seth Johnson to the bullpen.'
Allow me to introduce: WiPS. That stands for Windup Panic Spectrum. In the case of the Phillies, we're at a 1.5/10. Like when your honor student goes to Vegas for spring break: We're not worried long-term, but you're not gonna think back on this fondly, pal.
The Royals' 1-0 loss to the Tigers yesterday proved the final straw. After that game, the Royals decided to promote Jac Caglianone, a left-handed hitter who was the No. 6 pick, out of the University of Florida, in the 2024 draft.
Only one team, the hapless Rockies, is averaging fewer runs per game than the Royals. Caglianone, 22, is one of the game's top offensive prospects. True, he has played in only 79 minor-league games. But he has torn up Double A and Triple A this season with a combined 15 homers and .982 OPS.
Caglianone, 6-foot-5 and 250 pounds, plays first base (and also pitched in college). One rival evaluator, in his writeup of Caglianone as an amateur, described him as having 'ridiculous strength' and giving off 'peak Matt Olson vibe, look and profile,' with the potential to one day lead the majors in home runs.
Also on the Royals: Rookie left-hander Noah Cameron became only the second pitcher since 1893 to work at least 6 1/3 innings and allow one run or less in his first four major-league starts.
The 25-year-old's sample might be small, but in an era of diminishing workloads, Zack Wheeler and Max Fried are the only current starters averaging 6 1/3 innings. Now the Royals must figure out how Cameron fits in their staff going forward, with righty Seth Lugo coming off the injured list Friday and lefty Cole Ragans expected back this week.
Yordan Alvarez was expected to be back this week. NOPE.
So why did we think he was coming back? He last played on May 2. Logically, a month is roughly the recovery period for what the Astros originally said was the issue — a 'muscle strain.'
But guess what! It's not just a strain! It's a fracture, we found out Saturday. Walk with me through this minefield of face-palmery:
Does any of this sound familiar? It should. Remember when Kyle Tucker missed a lot of time last year as an Astro? The team insisted for three months that it was a 'shin contusion.'
That was (also) a fracture. Pardon my penchant for the petty, but this paragraph by Rome is delectable:
'Nowhere in Brown's team-written biography does it describe any medical education in his past, yet he sat atop a bench on Saturday afternoon attempting to explain how a $2.8 billion entity has now twice failed to discover a fracture in one of its franchise players.'
Wanna season that pettiness with some irony? Read this lede.
The Astros could certainly use a healthy Alvarez — they're just a half-game behind Seattle for the AL West lead. So when will he return? The team isn't saying. Even if they did, would you believe them?
More Astros: An 83-pitch complete game??? That's a Maddux++, right? Framber Valdez was brilliant against the Rays on Friday.
More sorta-related-to-this-story: The Cubs say Tucker has avoided a major injury. Let's see if they're being forthcoming!
*yawn* I know. They do this all the time, individually. 'That's never been done bef—' yeah, we know.
But when these two stars combine to do something that's never been done before, it's a big deal. So when Ohtani and Judge both homered in the first inning of the first game of the Dodgers-Yankees series over the weekend, it sent the game's historians to their laptops.
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The verdict: It was the first time in MLB history that both reigning MVPs had homered in the first inning of the same game. Ever. (It did happen in the same game once: Barry Bonds and Miguel Tejada did it in 2002.)
For context, interleague play only started in 1997. But it's not as impressive to say, 'It's the first time this has happened since 'Listen' by Collective Soul topped the rock charts.'
The Dodgers, by the way, won the series 2-1, but the Yankees' 7-3 win yesterday hardly swung the tide in their direction after losses of 8-5 (Friday) and 18-2 (Saturday). The Yankees insist it's not a huge deal, but it couldn't have felt great to come up short in their first low-stakes shot at revenge.
More Dodgers:
We conclude our All-Quarter Century team coverage with this: You, the readers (more than 12,000 of you) validated my claim that Shohei Ohtani should be the DH over David Ortiz. I disagree with you on other picks, but for now: Thank you. Jayson Stark has his rebuttal here.
If you enjoyed our foray into the world of ultra-contact-hitter Jacob Wilson of the A's, Sam Blum has a more fleshed-out version here.
You don't win rings in December, right? The Red Sox had a great offseason. It has not been a good regular season. If it continues to go badly, the Padres could have interest in Jarren Duran.
What's up with the federal investigation into the MLBPA?
Our fears were confirmed: Braves starter AJ Smith-Shawver has a torn UCL. (That's the Tommy John injury.)
On the pods: 'Rates & Barrels' talks prospects and the roundtable takes on Juan Soto's 2025 season so far.
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