MobiKwik shares down 61% from peak, charts hint at upside till Rs 300. Should you buy?

Economic Times

3 days ago

Shares of One MobiKwik Systems, the parent company of digital payments platform MobiKwik, have staged an 11% rebound over the past week, offering a brief respite after a punishing 61% slide from their peak. But as the stock hovers near Rs 273, analysts and technical signals suggest its short-term rebound may soon run into stiff resistance, and the real test lies just ahead, at Rs 300.
ADVERTISEMENT Analysts say the near-term momentum appears constructive but caution that key resistance levels around Rs 300 could prove difficult to breach unless backed by sustained buying and stronger fundamentals.
'Despite the price rising nearly 19% from the low of 229.30 made on 19th June, 2025, the overall trend is still down,' said Sudeep Shah, Head of technical and derivatives research at SBI Securities, adding that "the stock is yet to give a successful close above its previous swing high,' and continues to post 'lower highs,' signalling that the broader trend has not yet reversed.
Shah highlighted the Rs 228–231 zone as a strong support base, tested thrice over the past four months. 'To confirm this as a triple bottom reversal, the price needs to move up even higher and give a strong close above 300 levels,' he said.While the stock is currently trading above five of its six key simple moving averages, from 5-day to 50-day, it remains below the 100-day SMA. The MACD stands at -1.4 and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 59.7, just shy of the 60 mark often used to confirm momentum strength.'Whether the short-term bounce will sustain or the selling pressure might continue will depend on how the price behaves around its resistance zone of 300–305,' Shah said. 'Follow-up buying from these levels can drive the price further up while selling pressure around these zones can lead to price moving downwards again.'
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Ajit Mishra, SVP Research at Religare Broking, said MobiKwik is 'showing early signs of base formation after a prolonged downtrend,' with prices holding above short-term moving averages. However, the stock still trades below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs and the MACD remains negative, indicators of weak momentum.
ADVERTISEMENT 'RSI at 53.7 points to early accumulation or consolidation rather than overbought conditions,' Mishra said. 'A breakout above Rs 295 with strong volume could pave the way for a medium-term move toward Rs 340, with a major hurdle at Rs 355.'Still, Mishra cautioned that 'the recent bounce appears tentative and may face selling pressure near resistance unless sustained buying emerges.'
ADVERTISEMENT Kalp Jain, Research Analyst at INVasset PMS, said that while the stock has 'staged a short-term rebound of around 12% from recent lows,' the overall trend 'remains fragile.''The stock continues to trade well below key moving averages and its post-listing highs — a clear sign that market confidence hasn't fully returned,' Jain said, though he noted 'early signals of base formation are emerging.'
ADVERTISEMENT With the stock closing above a prior resistance zone of Rs 268, Jain sees 'an encouraging technical development,' opening up a possible move toward Rs 282–288. 'A decisive close above Rs 288, supported by strong volumes, would be the first clear signal of a potential trend reversal.'But he remains cautious. 'The recent bounce in MobiKwik appears more like a short-covering rally than the start of a sustained uptrend,' Jain said, adding that without a breakout above Rs 288 and follow-through momentum, the rally 'may struggle to hold.'The stock's prolonged selloff has been exacerbated by weak operating performance. In Q4 FY25, MobiKwik reported a net loss of Rs 56.03 crore, widening sharply from Rs 67 lakh a year ago. Revenue rose just 2.6% year-on-year to Rs 278 crore, despite a 2.3x jump in payments GMV to Rs 3.31 lakh crore. EBITDA loss for the quarter stood at Rs 45.8 crore.For FY25, total income rose 34% year-on-year to Rs 119.2 crore, driven by a 142% increase in payments revenue. However, contribution margins remained low at 30% due to the revenue mix being heavily tilted toward payments. Revenue from financial product distribution declined amid sector-wide lending headwinds.Jain said that while the company trades at 3.3x book, 'such a premium is typically reserved for businesses with strong return ratios, steady cash flows, or clear visibility on profitability,' none of which currently apply to MobiKwik.He added that 'without meaningful traction in financial services, MobiKwik stays overly reliant on payment volumes, which offer limited operating leverage.' The street, Jain said, remains cautious due to the 'absence of consistent operating leverage and the persistence of EBITDA losses.'While some short-term indicators have turned positive, with the stock now trading above its 5-day to 50-day SMAs and the RSI nearing 60, analysts agree that Rs 300–305 remains a critical resistance level.Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities pointed out that this zone has repeatedly capped past rallies and coincides with the 100-day exponential moving average. 'The price needs to give a close above its previous highs first and then show signs of follow-up buying supported by a rise in volumes and improving momentum indicators and oscillators,' he said. Until then, he advises investors to adopt a 'wait and watch approach.'Shah also noted that while the RSI has crossed 60 for the first time since January, indicating strengthening momentum, 'until the price doesn't give a strong close above its resistance zones, i.e. 300–305, it is difficult to call this pullback a reversal yet.'Ajit Mishra echoed a similar view, with Rs 295 identified as a near-term ceiling. 'A breakout above Rs 295 with strong volume could pave the way for a medium-term move toward Rs 340,' he said.Kalp Jain agreed that this range is pivotal. 'A clean breakout above Rs 288 could extend the upside toward Rs 310,' he said, but such a move would require 'both fundamental traction and broader market support.'Until this level is convincingly crossed, analysts believe the current rally is more likely to be seen as a technical bounce than the beginning of a sustained reversal.
Also read | Mobikwik's net loss widens to Rs 55 crore as revenue growth remains flat
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
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