Brookfield Asset Management Ltd: Stock Analysis & Forecast

Globe and Mail

05-05-2025

Brookfield Asset Management (BAM:CA) (BAM)
(About StockTargetAdvisor.com (STA Research): Is a Canadian investment research company specializing in advanced stock research and analysis. Our research team comprises of Financial Professionals.).
Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. is a Canadian alternative asset manager specializing in real estate, infrastructure, renewable energy, private equity, and credit investments.
Analyst Ratings & Price Targets
The stock forecast for Brookfield Asset Management is quite optimistic, based on insights from 8 professional equity analysts. Here's a deeper breakdown and interpretation of the forecast:
Average 12-Month Target Price: CAD $75.25
This price represents a significant upside from the current market price of approximately CAD $54.76 (as of early May 2025), implying a potential return of over 37% within the next 12 months if the target is realized.
This target reflects analysts' confidence in Brookfield's ability to generate robust returns from its fee-based, capital-light asset management business model.
Analyst Rating:
The consensus 'Buy' rating indicates that most analysts covering the stock expect it to outperform the broader market and peers in its sector.
This reflects confidence in Strong cash flow generation from long-term, contracted assets (especially in infrastructure and renewable energy) and Attractive management fees earned from overseeing over $900 billion in assets under management (AUM)Global diversification, which provides resilience across economic cycles.
Financial Metrics
Earnings Growth: Projected to grow at 66.4% annually over the next few years.
Revenue Growth: Expected to increase by 52.7% per annum.
Return on Equity (ROE): Forecasted to reach 30.9% within three years.
Strategic Developments
Corporate Restructuring: Brookfield has streamlined its organizational structure, separating Brookfield Asset Management to enhance transparency and attract investment.
Institutional Investment: Notably, Pershing Square Capital Management, led by Bill Ackman, significantly increased its stake in Brookfield, indicating strong institutional confidence.
Fundamental Stock Analysis
STA Research (Stock Target Advisor.com) provides a composite scorecard based on key evaluation criteria that analysts deem important when assessing a stock's potential. STA Research's analysis of Brookfield Asset Management Ltd is Bearish, which is based on 4 positive signals and 10 negative signals
4 Positive Fundamentals:
Superior Risk-Adjusted ReturnsBrookfield has delivered superior performance compared to its sector peers on a risk-adjusted basis. This means that despite any market volatility, Brookfield's returns have been notably efficient in terms of the risk taken. It has outperformed peers for at least 12 months, landing it in the top quartileImplication: Investors who are cautious about risk but still seek growth have historically found Brookfield to be a relatively safer bet
Positive Cash FlowOver the past four quarters, Brookfield has maintained positive total cash flow, indicating that it has generated more cash from operations than it used for its business activitiesImplication: Positive cash flow provides financial flexibility and allows for reinvestment in growth opportunities or shareholder returns (e.g., dividends, buybacks)
Positive Free Cash FlowBrookfield has also exhibited positive free cash flow over the same period, meaning the company generates enough cash after capital expenditures to potentially pay down debt, reinvest, or return value to shareholdersImplication: Free cash flow is often a sign of financial health, as it demonstrates the ability to fund operations without needing external financing
High Market CapitalizationAs one of the largest companies in its sector, Brookfield is in the top quartile by market cap. Larger companies tend to be more stable, especially in times of economic uncertaintyImplication: A high market cap can offer stability, liquidity, and credibility, making Brookfield an attractive option for institutional investors
10 Negative Fundamentals:
Poor Capital UtilizationReturn on Invested Capital (ROIC) has been below median compared to its peers. This suggests that the company's ability to generate returns from the capital it has invested is suboptimalImplication: While Brookfield generates substantial cash flow, it might not be maximizing its investment capital as effectively as other companies in the sector
Poor Return on Assets (ROA)Similar to ROIC, Brookfield's return on assets (ROA) has been below median when compared to peers. This implies that the company has not been as effective in generating profits from its total asset baseImplication: Investors might want to consider that Brookfield's asset efficiency is lacking compared to more profitable asset managers
Overpriced Compared to Book ValueThe stock is currently trading at a premium compared to its price-to-book (P/B) value, which is above the median for its sectorImplication: This suggests that Brookfield's stock may be priced higher than what its book value would suggest, possibly reflecting market optimism or an overvaluation
Overpriced Compared to EarningsOn a price-to-earnings (P/E) basis, Brookfield is trading higher than its peers, which suggests that it might be considered overvalued by earnings metricsImplication: Investors might want to be cautious as the stock could be priced at a premium, and the company's earnings might not support such high valuations in the short term
Below Median Total ReturnsOver the past 5 years, Brookfield's annualized total returns have underperformed its peers, which could indicate that, despite its strong financial metrics, its stock performance has lagged behind other companies in its sectorImplication: Historical performance might suggest that Brookfield has faced headwinds in recent years, making it a less favorable option for those seeking consistent returns
High VolatilityBrookfield's stock has exhibited above-median volatility compared to its peers, implying that its stock price can be more volatile than others in the sectorImplication: This makes it riskier for investors who are sensitive to stock price fluctuations and might deter those with a lower risk tolerance
Overpriced on Cash Flow BasisWhen evaluated on a price-to-cash-flow (P/CF) basis, Brookfield is trading higher than its sector median, suggesting that it is relatively expensive based on the cash it generatesImplication: This indicates that investors are paying a premium for each dollar of cash flow, which could reduce the stock's upside potential or present downside risks if cash flow growth doesn't meet market expectations
Low Revenue GrowthBrookfield has shown below-median revenue growth over the past five years compared to its sector peers, meaning its top-line expansion has been relatively slowerImplication: A slower revenue growth rate could limit future growth potential, especially for a company that is priced at a premium compared to its peers
Low Earnings GrowthSimilar to revenue, earnings growth for Brookfield has been below median relative to its peersImplication: Slower earnings growth could affect investor sentiment, especially in an environment where investors are seeking companies with high growth potential
Overpriced on Free Cash Flow BasisOn a price-to-free-cash-flow (P/FCF) basis, Brookfield is also trading above its sector's median, suggesting that it might be overpriced relative to its free cash flow generationImplication: Investors should be cautious about entering the stock at a high price point, as future free cash flow might not justify the elevated valuation
Outlook
Brookfield Asset Management demonstrates strong growth prospects, underpinned by its diversified asset portfolio and strategic restructuring efforts. While there are considerations regarding valuation practices and market volatility, the company's robust earnings and revenue growth projections, coupled with positive analyst sentiment, suggest a favorable but measured approach, (based on STA Research's bearish analytics) to the company's outlook.