India seen struggling to fulfil sugar export quota, industry sources say
"There are fears that the one million (ton) quota could actually be reduced," Prakash Naiknavare, managing director of the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories, told Reuters on the sidelines of the annual Dubai Sugar Conference.
India last month allowed exports of 1 million metric tons of sugar during the current season to September 2025 to help mills of the world's second-biggest producer export surplus stocks and prop up local prices.
Naiknavare said exports so far had totalled around 500,000 tons and have mainly focused on neighboring countries Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Nepal, as well as Eastern Africa.
Shashikant Pandhare, head of research at Meir India, put exports so far as only 400,000 tons at most and added the pace was slowing down.
He noted mill closures in northern India and struggles elsewhere due to poor harvest conditions.
The closures suggest India will produce less sugar than initially estimated and have lifted local prices, making India less competitive on global export markets.
"I think at most 700,000 tons will be exported by September but I doubt the government will make any changes to the quota," he told Reuters.
Pandhare said there has been a surge in demand from countries with significant Muslim populations, such as Tanzania and Bangladesh, in anticipation of Ramadan, which is set to begin around February 28.
Sanjeev Mishra, the chief executive officer of Tanzania's Kagera Sugar, said, however, that Indian exporters were currently offering at "unrealistic prices" compared to other global sources.
India's decision to allow sugar exports this season was a surprise to some traders with stocks expected to fall this season following crop problems.
Ashwini Srivastava, joint secretary in India's Department of Food and Public Distribution, told the conference that stocks were set to fall to six million tons by the end of this season, down from eight million a year earlier.
Trader and industry sources, however, said the outlook for the 2025/26 cane crop was currently more favourable.
Anup Kumar, managing director of Sucden India told Reuters there was a "very good crop coming" although the size was not yet clear.
He estimated, however, that only around 150,000 tons had been exported so far, mostly to countries around the Indian Ocean.
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