The telling numbers behind Lewis Hamilton's F1 demise – and it's not all about Ferrari

Independent

13 hours ago

The doom and gloom was writ large on Lewis Hamilton 's face in the Budapest media pen last weekend. After a dozen or so races to forget in Ferrari red, the 40-year-old needs a reset.
Hamilton is yet to secure a podium in 14 rounds for his new outfit, with aspirations of competing for an eighth world championship dead in the water this year. As for 2026? Regardless of car performance, at this point, who knows?
But while we have seen glimpses of the seven-time world champion's stardust on raceday in the last 18 months – not least his sumptuous victory at Silverstone a year ago – his performances on a Saturday, by his own admission, have been below-par.
Qualifying performances are, to a large degree, how you are judged when it comes to raw pace in Formula One. In the same machinery as your teammate, the quicker driver comes to the fore throughout the course of the season. It is in this department that Hamilton should be most concerned.
Now, ahead of the four-week summer break, The Independent breaks down the 40-year-old's qualifying record, why it shows the issues did not just start at Ferrari and whether his downward spiral can be reversed.
2024 season – Mercedes
After George Russell finished above Hamilton in the world championship in their first year together in 2022, the elder statesman of the Silver Arrows finished third to Russell's distant eighth to reaffirm his spot as No 1 in 2023.
But the start of the 2024 season, by which point we knew of Hamilton's impending departure, represented the beginning of a trend in which the seven-time world champion has faced consistent uphill battles.
As detailed by the table below, Hamilton was quicker than Russell in just five out of 24 grand prix qualifying sessions last year. He was faster just once in the first nine rounds and, after the summer interval, he went quicker than Russell in just one out of 10 races.
In terms of trends, Hamilton only managed to go quicker at one street circuit – Singapore – and his biggest advantage of 0.881 seconds in Hungary came about as a result of Russell not fuelling his car up enough in changeable conditions.
On the flip side, Russell's biggest advantage of two seconds was in the unpredictable wind and rain of Brazil, which wet-weather master Hamilton bafflingly failed to adapt to.
Overall, Hamilton's average deficit over the course of the season was 0.209 seconds in qualifying to his teammate.
The seven-time champion, who we should not forget holds the record for the most number of F1 pole positions, at 104, also failed to make the top-10 Q3 stage of qualifying seven times, compared to just twice for Russell, a driver nicknamed 'Mr Saturday' from early on in his career due to his impressive qualifying lap times.
All in all, it makes for pretty grim reading. Many assumed Hamilton's sights were already set on a fresh challenge at Ferrari, and that played a part, particularly in the latter months. However, this season, not much has changed.
Bold indicates races where Hamilton went quicker
Note 1: If one driver did not make it to Q3, lap times were taken from the qualifying session in which said driver was eliminated, for consistency reasons (e.g. changable weather conditions)
Note 2: Sprint race times not included
*Hamilton did not complete a lap in Q3. Therefore, lap times were taken from Q2, despite both finishing in the top-10.
2025 season – Ferrari
Over the 14 races so far this season, Charles Leclerc leads the Ferrari head-to-head qualifying stakes 10-4.
First point to be made: Leclerc is viewed as one of the quickest drivers over one lap in the sport. His pole position record speaks to that. While the Monegasque has claimed eight race victories, that figure is dwarfed by his 27 pole positions.
However, after Hamilton's initially prosperous weekend in China (when he won the sprint, before both cars were disqualified after the race), he went on a six-race losing streak.
Interestingly, like the year before, Hamilton beat his teammate in Barcelona – a circuit he knows like the back of his hand, given the years of races and testing held in Catalunya.
Leclerc's biggest advantage of 0.645 seconds came at Spa-Francorchamps a fortnight ago, when Hamilton's final lap was wiped for exceeding track limits.
The pre-Q3 exits are perhaps of bigger significance: Hamilton has been knocked out before the top-10 shootout on four occasions, with just one to Leclerc's name. Even for Hamilton, who loves a charge through the field, it's not possible to do it every week.
Overall, Hamilton's average deficit so far to Leclerc is 0.201 seconds – a difference of just 0.008 seconds compared to last year.
In sum, that's what it boils down to: two-tenths of a second. Not much in real-time. But in F1 spiel, it's significant. But crucially, with a view to the future, not disastrous.
The future
It's plain as day that Hamilton's qualifying lap times need to improve if he is to stand any chance of reviving his old self. It's simply not feasible to expect prosperous, consistent results at the top of the leaderboard when you're starting in the middle of the pack.
Charging through several cars to make up positions? Once in a while, perhaps. But not on the regular.
The good news is that Hamilton is not naïve. He knows this is nothing new. It was after qualifying on Saturday that Hamilton described himself as 'useless.' Further back, in Qatar last year post-qualifying, he simply said: 'I'm just slow.' The despondency has been long-lasting.
Reasons for optimism? As witnessed in Silverstone last year, when presented with a strong starting position, his prowess in grands prix is unwavering. In addition, an average deficit of two-tenths, while sizable, is not humungous. And, slowly but surely, Hamilton can work away at closing the gap.
It's also clear, given his Mercedes troubles last year, that this is not just a Ferrari issue. Of course, the team need to find a sweet spot for Hamilton in this capricious car. But the patterns are unignorable, regardless of the team.
So, while the outlook may look decidedly dreary, with question marks over whether Hamilton still has 'it', the challenge the 40-year-old faces in qualifying s not insurmountable. And if he's going to stand any chance of a title tilt next year – with dreams of No 8, surpassing Schumacher – he has to make Saturdays his primary focus for vast improvement.