How much will car prices go up with tariffs? New England buyers aren't waiting to find out.
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Tariff fears helped boost US new car sales by 11 percent in March, according to research firm Wards Intelligence. And throughout Massachusetts thrifty consumers are scrambling to buy now.
Vaccine development scientist Annette Ferrari said she and her husband Rob Colonna had been in no hurry to replace their 2015 Mini Cooper. But then came the tariffs.
'I don't want to get caught, three months from now, needing a new car when prices are up 25 percent. It would be vastly more expensive,' said Ferrari, who lives in Boston's South End. 'If we had more time, we'd be more thoughtful, but we really feel like we have to do it now.'
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They weren't looking for a Ferrari; instead they considered three promising Volvo models they'd spotted on the website of a nearby dealership. But by the time Ferrari and Colonna got there, the cars were already gone. Ferrari said they'd lined up visits to two other Volvo dealerships on Tuesday evening and that they expected to buy a car that day.
'We're lucky that this is something we're able to do, but it's still jarring,' she said.
Ethan Warren, a novelist from Norwell, just took delivery of a Toyota Grand Highlander ordered last year with a host of options. The vehicle arrived at Braintree Toyota last week.
'We felt really lucky that we acted in this timeline,' said Warren. 'We would've been in a very different situation even just a week later.' Warren described the feeling as movie hero Indiana Jones grabbing his hat from under the door at the last possible second.
How many tariff-free vehicles are still available? 'It's different, brand by brand,' said Sean Tucker, lead editor at car market research firm
Cars are seen at a Toyota dealership in Houston, Texas, on March 27.
RONALDO SCHEMIDT/AFP via Getty Images
Kevin Roberts, director of economic and market intelligence at Boston-based online car retailer
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But shoppers who resign themselves to the tariff may not feel its full weight. Karl Brauer, executive analyst at
Brauer is also betting that the pain won't last. 'I think there's a good chance that the tariffs will be adjusted in a relatively short time span,' he said. That would be good news for buyers of new and used cars, said Brauer, because elevated new car prices drive shoppers to buy used vehicles, thus driving up their prices.
According to ISeeCars research, nationwide used car prices declined in March, the first dip in over a year. And according to Kelley Blue Book, average used car prices in New England declined in March from a year ago. slipping from $29,161 to $28,663. In Massachusetts the year-over-year average for March edged upward from $29,161 to $29,336
But Kelley Blue Book's Tucker said he's seeing the first signs of an uptick, as wholesale auction prices for used cars have begun to creep higher in recent weeks. 'That means about six to eight weeks out we're going to see a spike start,' he said. And the used car spike will be especially sharp if the Trump tariff lingers through the year.
Balise, who is also president of the Massachusetts State Automobile Dealers Association, said automakers are all over the map in responding to the tariff threat. 'We've had a couple manufacturers with a long-term outlook that have come right out and said, 'Listen guys. We're not increasing prices anytime soon ... don't panic. Don't worry, we're going to be smart.'' Balise declined to identify those carmakers.
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But Balise said another manufacturer, also unnamed, is telling dealers it will pass along the tariff cost, and slap labels on its new cars so consumers see why the price has gone up. 'It just sounds to me like they're over-reacting quicker than they have to,' Balise said.
That's because Balise, like Brauer, thinks the tariffs will soon be reduced, as the Trump administration cuts deals with the EU, Canada and Mexico. If that happens within the next couple of months, the damage will be minimal, said Balise. But if the tariffs last much longer, it'll be a serious problem, as prices soar and auto imports slump.
'A lot of people are saying, are you panicked?' said Balise. 'Well, give me 60 days and then maybe I'll be panicked.'
Hiawatha Bray can be reached at
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