Should You Buy Take-Two Stock Around $235?

Yahoo

4 days ago

Take-Two stock is rising on high sales expectations for an upcoming release.
Analysts expect sales of "Grand Theft Auto VI" to lift Take-Two's revenue by 52% in fiscal 2027.
Strong sales of add-on content and in-game spending could lead to significantly higher margins and earnings.
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Investors are keen on Take-Two Interactive's (NASDAQ: TTWO) prospects with the blockbuster release of Grand Theft Auto VI less than a year away. The Grand Theft Auto franchise has become a cornerstone of pop culture and has been one of the best-selling video game series of all time.
Scheduled to debut on May 26, 2026, the newest installment will tap into a huge fanbase that's anxious to jump into a new adventure -- it has been 12 years since the previous release of Grand Theft Auto V. The featured song in the release trailer for the upcoming title saw an 182,000% increase in the number of streams on Spotify, while the trailer itself was viewed over 475 million times in the first 24 hours.
Anticipation for the game is sky-high, and Take-Two stock is up 27% year to date, as of this writing. Though the new release is still a year away, the substantial windfall it can offer Take-Two's business justifies buying the stock now, and growth estimates from Wall Street analysts seem to echo this sentiment. Here's what you need to know.
From a valuation perspective, Take-Two stock is clearly priced for growth. It currently trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 87 based on earnings estimates for the current fiscal year (ending Mar. 31, 2026). That multiple drops to 25 for fiscal 2027, based not just on expectations for Grand Theft Auto (GTA) but also strong sales across Take-Two's large catalogue of titles.
Take-Two has two upcoming releases this year that should also deliver strong sales: Borderlands 4 and Mafia: The Old Country. Borderlands is the bigger franchise, with the previous installment selling 22 million units.
Management's fiscal 2026 outlook calls for net bookings to grow roughly 5% over fiscal 2025, to a range $5.9 billion to $6.0 billion. Nearly half of bookings are expected to come from Zynga's mobile titles, with another 39% coming from the 2K label and 16% from Rockstar Games, which includes sales of the current GTA title.
Fiscal 2027 will be the first year to include sales of GTA VI. Management doesn't offer specific revenue guidance this far out, but Wall Street analysts currently expect revenue to grow 52% over fiscal 2026 to reach a record $9.1 billion.
For perspective, the previous release grew revenue 98% in Take-Two's fiscal 2014, and it supported a decade of growth for the business.
Take-Two could be looking at a strong five-year stretch of growth, at a minimum. Wall Street analysts currently project revenue will reach $10.9 billion by fiscal 2030, implying a five-year compound annual growth rate of 14%.
The company is executing a long-term growth strategy that extends beyond GTA VI as well. It has 25 titles planned for release through fiscal 2028, including releases for existing franchises, five sports simulation games, and four mobile titles. This should further pad its top-line momentum.
What's really going to move the stock is earnings. Three quarters of Take-Two's bookings come from recurrent consumer spending, including virtual currency, add-on content updates to existing games, and in-game advertising. This revenue is very accretive to margins and earnings, and Take-Two has mastered the art of keeping players spending time with GTA V for the last decade through Grand Theft Auto Online. GTA VI should be able to drive similar growth in recurrent consumer spending.
Analysts expect Take-Two's adjusted earnings to grow at an annualized rate of 39% over the next five years, reaching $16.03 per share. If the stock is still trading at 25 times earnings, that would put the share price at $400. Even allowing for some margin of error in analysts' estimates, this top video game stock still offers upside from the current $234 share price.
However, investors need to keep in mind that release dates for games are not set in stone. GTA VI was originally scheduled to release this year, but it was pushed back to give the developers more time to polish the game. Given this uncertainty, which tends to result in greater volatility for the stock, I would keep any position in Take-Two small and then buy more shares on any dips.
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John Ballard has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Spotify Technology and Take-Two Interactive Software. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Should You Buy Take-Two Stock Around $235? was originally published by The Motley Fool