From ‘India Out' to ‘India In': Delhi's Maldives reset as a template for regional diplomacy

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5 days ago

Thanks to PM Modi's well-prepared and flawlessly executed visit, India-Maldives ties are in a good spot now; the task ahead for South Block is to work determinedly on the Nepal and Bangladesh files read more
Social media platforms, such as X, are changing the way communication takes place and judgements are formed by both the ruler and the ruled. Following a widely covered two-day visit (July 25–26) to the Maldives, Prime Minister Narendra Modi noted, as part of his departure remarks, 'The productive talks with President [Mohamed] Muizzu will add significant energy to our bilateral relations.'
A storm of positive reactions followed on X. A thoughtful comment by a follower in this series articulated it well by highlighting that Maldives is 'a strategically crucial neighbour' and, therefore, it is 'vital to keep relations with such a key ally strong, especially given domestic political sensitivities'.
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Those watching the Indian PM's visit from distant regions may not be aware of the need to place India-Maldives relations on an even keel, but those closely following developments in South Asia are conscious of the high stakes involved—for Maldives, India, and the region. This positive visit and its substantive outcomes demonstrate that the forces favouring regional stability, peace, and cooperation stand strengthened by what was achieved and the favourable public reactions.
The Backdrop
As one who managed the division in the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) handling India-Maldives relations in the 1990s, I can affirm that from the time of the presidency of Maumoon Abdul Gayoom (1978–2008) to that of Ibrahim Mohamed Solih (2018–23), the relationship grew from strength to strength, with the exception of the tenure of President Abdulla Yameen (2013–18).
The president, Mohamed Muizzu, was influenced by Yameen's thinking. He deployed the 'India Out' campaign to secure power in 2023 and acted initially to suggest that he would be perfectly happy to execute a strategic pivot to China. His first visits to Turkey and China, rather than to the closest neighbour—India; the conclusion of 20 agreements in Beijing; and the raging controversy over his public demand to India to withdraw a small team of defence personnel stationed there to man an Indian aircraft and two helicopters for the benefit of the Maldivian people created a challenging situation. People in India reported adverse reactions. But quiet diplomacy got into action. It produced results, yielding to the logic of geography and the compelling realities of geopolitics.
What followed was the visit to the Maldives by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar in August 2024. This is when the foundations of a reset were laid. A changed leader, now reflecting the transformation of a former mayor of Male into a true president of the Maldives, Muizzu paid a successful visit to India in October 2024. The two governments crafted and announced 'A Vision for Comprehensive Economic and Maritime Security Partnership' on October 7.
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The crucial transaction was this: India spoke about the importance of Maldives in the former's 'Neighbourhood First' policy and Vision SAGAR (since elevated to MAHASAGAR), assuring the island nation of 'its commitment to assist' in its development journey, whereas Maldives formally 'acknowledged India's continued role as the 'First Responder' of Maldives in times of need'. It also promised to safeguard India's security interests.
Key Outcomes
Against the above backdrop, PM Modi's July visit—the third to Maldives but the first in Muizzu's tenure—served the basic purpose of educating and sensitising the people of Maldives that India's generosity and noble intentions towards them remain unchanged. In a special gesture, he was received at the airport by the president and his senior ministers.
Wide-ranging discussions followed with the government leaders. But Modi also interacted with opposition figures, business leaders, the Indian diaspora, and others. The importance of his presence as the guest of honour at the 60th Independence Day celebrations of Maldives did not go unnoticed. The idea that, regardless of the change in government, India remains a steady and valuable partner of the Maldives seems to have sunk in.
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Observers may have noted that the state visit did not result in a joint declaration. The explanation gathered was that the agreed long-term vision of October 2024 remains valid and relevant. Hence, it obviated the need for another document within a few months. Some ill-informed critics could argue that no civilian honour was bestowed on the eminent visitor. They should be informed that the country's highest civilian award was conferred on Mr. Modi in 2019. The positive results of the visit were announced clearly and concisely.
MEA presented on its website the list of four agreements, or MoUs, three of which related to the economic facets of the relationship. India extended a new Line of Credit (LoC) of Rs 4,850 crores to Maldives and agreed to reduce the annual debt repayment obligations on previous Lines of Credit. The two governments also agreed to the launch of Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations. Six projects, including social housing units and high-impact community development initiatives, were inaugurated or handed over to the Maldivian authorities.
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An elaborate ceremony of exchange of MoUs/agreements took place concerning eight agreements, which covered not only economic and trade matters but also cooperation in fisheries and aquaculture, meteorology, digital solutions, and the pharmaceutical field. A commemorative stamp was jointly issued to mark the 60th anniversary of diplomatic relations between India and the Maldives.
An Evaluation
President Muizzu depicted PM Modi's sojourn as 'a defining visit that sets a clear path for the future of Maldives-India relations'.
Presenting an overall assessment, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri called it a 'very, very timely and productive visit'. It provided the opportunity for the two leaders to review and further develop bilateral cooperation. They agreed that the various elements of the joint vision should continue to be implemented through a concerted approach.
Following the visit, a critical analysis highlights three key aspects of this relationship and its broader implications.
First, the reset in bilateral relations, begun last August during EAM's visit, has now gained special momentum. It owes much to New Delhi's patience and pragmatism, as well as its studied refusal to be provoked by public irritants. Wisely, the larger picture was kept in view.
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Second, from a regional perspective, the visit demonstrated India's continued priority to consolidate its position in South Asia. Progress in relations with the Maldives, as well as with Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Afghanistan, and the continued excellent equation with Bhutan, ensures that India's leadership position remains largely intact. However, challenges regarding Bangladesh and Pakistan appear to be daunting.
Third, the larger geopolitical context suggests that the competition between India and China in South Asia will persist unabated. In this context, mobilising diplomatic support and complementary policies from India's partners—the US, Japan, and Australia—may be desirable, especially in the case of the Maldives and Sri Lanka. There is room for progress in this sphere.
Thanks to PM Modi's well-prepared and flawlessly executed visit, India-Maldives ties are in a good spot now. The task ahead for South Block is to work determinedly on the Nepal and Bangladesh files.
Rajiv Bhatia is a Distinguished Fellow at Gateway House, a former Indian Ambassador with extensive diplomatic experience in regional and global groupings, and the author of three books on Indian foreign policy.Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost's views.
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