NY Fed finds moderating inflation expectations in May
June 9 (Reuters) - Americans' anxiety about the future path of inflation eased in May, as they also grew more upbeat about the state of their personal finances, a report released on Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said.
The bank reported in its Survey of Consumer Expectations for May that the outlook for inflation across all the horizons it measures retreated. A year from now, survey respondents see inflation at 3.2% versus 3.6% in April, while three years from now it's seen at 3% versus 3.2%. Five years from now, inflation is projected at 2.6% from the prior month's 2.7%.
The report found that survey respondents are expecting moderating price gains for gas, rent, medical care and college, while food costs a year from now are seen rising at a 5.5% rate, the highest mark since October 2023. Meanwhile, in May the year- ahead expected rise in house prices stood at 3%, down from April's 3.3%.
The moderation in the outlook for inflation took place against a background of high uncertainty over the future of price pressures. Huge and ever-shifting tax hikes on imports imposed by the Trump administration are broadly expected by economists and policymakers to push up inflation, while depressing hiring and growth. The major question is whether the gain is a one-off or the makings of something more persistent.
There's been little clarity on how much those tariffs will impact the economy, especially as President Donald Trump raises and lowers his import levies unpredictably. The survey period for the New York Fed report overlapped some of the biggest shifts on tariffs, and the moderation in May's readings will likely bolster officials' confidence that inflation is not fixing for an extended breakout to higher levels.
The Fed is set to meet to deliberate on monetary policy on June 17-18 in a gathering that will almost certainly see the central bank leave its interest rate range steady at between 4.25% and 4.5%. Inflation remains above the 2% target and is not expected to moderate to desired levels any time soon, in an otherwise healthy economy.
The New York Fed report also found that expectations of moderating future inflation gains came as households also upgraded their views on their incomes, earnings, hiring prospects and finances.
The survey found 'slightly' improved views on households' views of their current financial situation in May, as respondents said access to credit improved relative to last year, while expectations of missing a debt payment declined.
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Finextra
28 minutes ago
- Finextra
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