9,600 hospitals, care centers in Nankai Trough flooding zone

Asahi Shimbun

4 days ago

Some 2,300 medical institutions and 7,300 welfare facilities are at risk of flooding in a tsunami triggered by the long-expected Nankai Trough megaquake, according to a new analysis.
In this zone are 12 disaster base hospitals that must now factor in the possibility their operations could be disrupted, according to The Asahi Shimbun's analysis of the government's predicted tsunami flood area announced in March.
Each of the hospitals is designated by their respective prefectural government and responsible for providing medical care during major calamities.
30-PERCENT INCREASE
The central government revised its Nankai Trough earthquake damage projections for the first time in a decade in March. This revision recalculated tsunami height, arrival time and flood zones across 11 scenarios based on epicenter location and other factors.
It predicts a maximum area of 1,151.5 square kilometers, spanning from Fukushima to Okinawa prefectures, is likely to be flooded by a tsunami at least 30 centimeters tall. This represents a 30 percent increase compared to previous estimates after integrating updated topographical data.
The Asahi Shimbun analyzed the flood zone map for the 11 scenarios by overlaying it with geolocations from the land ministry's 'Digital National Land Information' data that includes the locations of medical facilities, nursing homes and facilities for people with disabilities.
The overlay indicates 2,347 medical facilities in Tokyo and 20 prefectures are located in areas at risk of flooding in at least one of the government's 11 scenarios. This accounts for 3.2 percent of all medical facilities in Tokyo and the 20 prefectures.
By prefecture, Tokushima has the highest number of affected medical facilities, with 260 representing 31.6 percent of the prefectural total. Kochi follows with 252 facilities, or 38.2 percent of its total, trailed by Wakayama with 242 facilities comprising 21.8 percent of its total.
An even greater number of welfare facilities dedicated to elderly care and individuals with disabilities fall within the predicted flood zone. The combined total for Tokyo and 22 prefectures is 7,270.
Among these, Kochi Prefecture has the highest number with 1,286 facilities at 33.4 percent of its welfare facilities. This was followed by Tokushima with 1,199 facilities comprising 28.1 percent of its total and Ehime with 925 facilities making up 13.2 percent of its total.
Being caught in tsunami waters of 30 cm or higher is life-threatening, according to the Cabinet Office. Additionally, not only could an earthquake-tsunami combination result in large numbers of injuries, but resulting power outages may endanger the lives of hospital patients.
To counter this, the health ministry requires all medical institutions to be prepared to continue operations even after a disaster.
However, as of fiscal 2022, only 60 percent of disaster base hospitals and emergency medical centers had established a Business Continuity Plan (BCP).
The government's basic countermeasure plan for the Nankai Trough earthquake mandates that hospitals and welfare facilities in areas expected to see flooding of 30 cm or more must create evacuation plans, particularly those with high visitor numbers. Eighty-one percent had done so by 2023.
EVACUATE UP, NOT OUT
Nanko Hospital in Osaka's Suminoe Ward is one of the medical institutions that found itself at risk of flooding in the government's latest Nankai Trough earthquake damage projections.
'This is a region that has lived in tandem with water,' Tadashi Ito, senior hospital official said. 'So, the risk of tsunami flooding is something we've always anticipated. We will continue to strengthen our countermeasures.'
Osaka's hazard map indicates the five-story hospital lies in an area that could experience flooding between 50 cm and 3 meters deep triggered by the Nankai Trough megaquake.
The hospital was built in 1971 and does not meet current earthquake standards, but a new six-story facility is under construction nearby.
Until then, Ito said the hospital's emergency plan for the current building entails moving patients to higher floors. Staff members are to divide the labor and implement an 'all-hands-on-deck approach' to reduce the evacuation time.
Workers would need to evacuate the hospital's 36 inpatients from the second floor and all outpatients from the first floor up to the third floor or higher depending on how severe flooding is.
Based on past drills, it takes four staff members about 10 minutes to carry one patient up the stairs to the next floor.
This plan will not be as crucial at the new building—the first-floor ceiling is higher and all hospital beds will be located on the third floor and up.
(This article was compiled from reports by Shoko Rikimaru, Kanato Ishii, Shun Niekawa and Yasukazu Akada.)