Why Trump's political war in Texas is much bigger than the Lone Star State

Yahoo

8 hours ago

The future of Donald Trump's presidency may be decided in Texas in the coming weeks.
A nasty fight in the Lone Star State over redrawing U.S. House districts could decide whether Trump is politically neutered after the 2026 midterms.
Democrats see next year's election as an opportunity to flip the House, cripple Trump's presidency and ensure he's in full lame duck mode during his final two years before the 2028 presidential campaign.
Trump and his allies are determined to prevent that.
'As goes Texas, so goes the nation and we are in a battle, this is not hyperbole, we are in a battle for the future of the republic, for the future of these United States,' Texas state Rep. Brian Harrison, a former first-term Trump administration official, told USA TODAY, adding: 'The stakes could not be higher.'
Launching a rare mid-decade redistricting, Texas Republicans have drawn a new map of U.S. House districts that could give the GOP five more seats and help the party maintain control of the narrowly-divided chamber.
If they succeed, a pliant GOP-led House would allow Trump to continue one of the most aggressive and disruptive agendas in modern presidential history, while a Democratic majority in January 2027 opens the door to Congressional investigations, legislative paralysis − even a third impeachment.
Democratic control of the House would be the "de facto" end of Trump's presidency, California Gov. Gavin Newsom said at a recent press conference.
Republicans argue it would bring chaos, pointing to the impeachments that consumed Washington D.C. during the second half of Trump's first term.
The GOP's Texas power play has shaken the political landscape 15 months ahead of the midterm election, setting off a redistricting arms race as blue state leaders move to create more Democratic-leaning House seats to counter Texas, and lawmakers in other red states, including Indiana and Missouri, consider joining the fray.
The tit-for-tat redistricting battle has exploded into one of the most consequential elements of the 2026 midterms, with the potential to decide control of the House well before votes are counted.
Democrats seek check on Trump
Republicans currently hold a 219-212 majority in the House, with four vacancies. The party in power typically loses seats in the midterms. If the four vacant seats are filled by a member of the same party that vacated them, Democrats need to pick up just three seats to win control.
Trump's agenda has energized the Democratic base.
A Democrat-controlled House could kill any legislation coming out of the White House, launch investigations of the Trump administration on everything from the Epstein files to Trump's deportation tactics, wield subpoena power to compel testimony from administration officials and even impeach the president for a third time.
"Donald Trump has always been a wannabe dictator," Rep. Sylvia Garcia, a Texas Democrat, told USA TODAY. "If Democrats take control of the House we're a stumbling block for him."
Trump has seen it before.
Democrats rode a wave of anti-Trump enthusiasm to win the House in 2018 during his first term and aggressively probed everything from Trump's tax returns and personal finances to his administration's family separation policy for detained immigrants and his purported threats to the rule of law.
Trump twice was impeached by the House during his first term after Democrats won a majority, the first time over allegations he pressured Ukraine's president to dig up dirt on political rival Joe Biden and the second for allegedly inciting an insurrection on Jan. 6, 2021 when a mob of his supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol.
The Senate acquitted Trump in both cases. Democrats face a less favorable political map for the upper chamber and are less likely to win control next year.
'Impeach, impeach, impeach'
Republicans are highlighting the impeachment threat to argue the last two years of Trump's presidency could be a distraction from issues Americans care about, such as boosting the economy. They hope to give Trump maximum flexibility to continue a controversial agenda that includes mass deportations, overhauling the federal government and new tariffs on foreign goods.
"We all know that should we lose the House, which I don't think we would... that the Democrats would do nothing but impeach, impeach, impeach for two straight years," Texas GOP Rep. Troy Nehls, a Trump ally, told USA TODAY.
Democrats say Trump is abusing his power and must be reined in. They point to polls showing aspects of his agenda are unpopular. The Texas redistricting plan is a way for Trump to game the system to circumvent a reckoning at the 2026 ballot box, Democrats say.
"Let's be clear why this is happening, this is happening because Donald Trump is trying to avoid accountability," Texas Democratic Party Chair Kendall Scudder told USA TODAY.
Whether a few new GOP-leaning seats in Texas would be enough to swing the election is unclear. Many other factors could come into play, especially the economy, University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato told USA TODAY.
"We're so far away" from the election, Sabato said. "Suppose we have a recession or even a significant slowdown in the economy? Then it probably will be... a sizeable Democratic margin, at least in the House."
But in a close race for the House, any redistricting changes could be decisive.
High stakes
Both parties are acting aggressively, portraying the redistricting fight as a battle for the future of the country.
As Texas Republicans worked to jam through a new House map, Democrats fled the state to prevent a quorum and stall legislative business. The state's GOP governor and attorney general responded with legal threats.
California Gov. Newsom is pushing a plan to redraw his state's House districts to counter Texas.
"Whatever they are doing will be neutered here in the state of California," Newsom said Aug. 4. Trump "recognizes he's going to lose in the midterms and we have the opportunity to de facto end the Trump presidency in less than 18 months. That's what's at stake, and that's why we're putting a stake in the ground."
Other blue state leaders are contemplating redistricting, and more red states are considering joining Texas to create more conservative-leaning seats.
'Using every day to the hilt'
Trump said Aug. 5 on CNBC that "we are entitled to five more seats" in Texas because of his strong performance in the state.
Scudder, the Texas Democratic chair, said his party must be willing to play hardball.
"We are tired of playing by a different set of rules than the ones they play by," he said.
Sabato said presidents typically understand they have two years to enact their agenda and then "they shift into a lower gear." Trump seems determined to make his second two years as consequential as the first two.
"Whatever the motivation, he is using every day to the hilt, much to the chagrin of Democrats," he said.
Whoever prevails in the redistricting war, Sabato was skeptical that a Democratic-controlled House would be a meaningful check on a MAGA White House.
"There's no obstacle that cannot be removed or cut down to size, especially when you've got a president like Trump," he said.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Trump's political war in Texas is much bigger than the Lone Star State