The pension triple lock is a self-inflicted disaster
The OBR often comes in for a lot of stick – most of it unjustified.
It does a good job of laying out unpalatable truths for politicians. Like more or less everyone else, it is pretty bad at forecasting the fiscal numbers over the coming year, and equally undistinguished at the five-year forecasting which underpins the Chancellor's fiscal rules.
So what it says about the period out to 2070 invites being taken with the proverbial barrel of salt. Yet these long-term projections should be taken seriously.
The OBR's fiscal picture is pretty alarming. At the end of 2024, the UK's fiscal deficit was 5.7pc of GDP, which was the fifth highest among 36 advanced countries.
At 94pc, the ratio of government debt to GDP is the sixth highest among advanced economies after Japan, Greece, Italy, France and the US. Incidentally, in 1976 when the then-Labour government negotiated a loan from the IMF, our debt ratio was just under 50pc.
Commentators often talk about the danger that the bond markets will react negatively to our worrying fiscal prospects. In practice, however, they already have.
UK 10-year bond yields are standing at about 4.6pc. For those of us who can remember 16-17pc yields in the early 1980s, that doesn't sound too bad. But this is currently the third-highest 10-year government bond yield of any advanced country, after New Zealand and Iceland.
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Sky News
13 minutes ago
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Lakeland-owner Hilco eyes swoop for stricken jeweller Claire's
The prolific high street investor which owns Lakeland and has backed chains including HMV and Superdry is sizing up a takeover of the UK operations of Claire's, the struggling jewellery chain. Sky News understands that Hilco Capital, which was also one of the recent bidders for Poundland, is among the parties expected to submit offers for Claire's in the coming weeks, according to banking sources. Other parties expected to examine offers for Claire's British chain, which trades from about 280 stores, would include Alteri Investors and Modella Capital, which recently bought WH Smith's high street chain. The Telegraph reported earlier this month that Claire's had hired Interpath Advisory to find a buyer for the UK business as it explores options - including bankruptcy - for its US-based operations. Prospective buyers of the business have been told that a sale of the British chain could lead to significant numbers of store closures. One retail industry boss speculated that as many as a third of the UK shops could be axed in a deal to salvage the rest of the chain, potentially putting hundreds of jobs at risk. Claire's has been a fixture in British shopping centres and on high streets for decades. Houlihan Lokey, the investment bank, is advising on the sale of the US arm. Claire's, which is reported to trade from 2,000 stores globally, is owned by former creditors Elliott Management and Monarch Alternative Capital following a previous financial restructuring.
Daily Mail
15 minutes ago
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EXCLUSIVE The ghost town centre with more abandoned shops than nearly every city in the UK as locals blame drug addicts, high rents... and EACH OTHER
Bradford may have been crowned City of Culture but its shopping streets have been devastated by a slump which has led to stores being boarded up across the town. The West Yorkshire district has more empty shops than nearly every other city in the UK and double those in London and Cambridge, according to a new think tank study. Bradford Council is now gambling the town's retail future on a multi million pound strategy to reverse the decline. The idea is to replace the city's Oestler and Kirkgate Markets with the new Darley Street market which opened this week creating 1,000 new homes in the process. The two markets closed last month as part of a scheme which will also see the demotion of the Oestler Centre and eventually the Kirkgate Shopping Centre. With Darley Street Market welcoming its first customers this week Mail Online visited the town to see if optimism is in the air. We found a city centre that is a real Curate's Egg of a retail experience. Some shopping streets are swarming with shoppers and the atmosphere seems vibrant. But around every corner is a boarded up shop. The Oeastler Centre stands derelict amid a maze of deserted streets. Across town, traders at the Kirkgate Centre reckon it will not be long before it also becomes a concrete shell to be flattened by the bulldozers. Many areas are now wall to wall betting shops, vape stores, and nail bars, squeezing out local cafes, corner shops and even designer jewellery stores. Several shops are reduced to selling tat for pittance to survive including bunches of fake flowers for £1. Last year, the city centre suffered another blow when Marks and Spencer closed its branch in the Broadway shopping centre. Debenhams also closed its store in the Broadway in 2021 when the stores closed nationwide and the brand was snapped up by Boohoo for online sales. Meanwhile, High Street names have continued to disappear from the city, possibly for good. One the latest casualties of the slump has been Dunkin' Donuts, near the entrance to the Broadway. It closed without warning this week, leaving customers stunned including Sophie Webster, 29. She said: 'There are so many shops closing. I am born and bred here but I normally shop in Keighley town centre. I am only here now because I am at work. 'My favourite coffee shop Dunkin' Donuts closed on Tuesday. There was no warning. it just shut so I don't know what that was about. 'Most shops in Broadway will only be open for a few months or a year and then close and become something else. 'Taco Bell has shut as well and I have no idea why. They didn't put anything where Burger king used to be and all the food places are going. 'Some places are not getting enough customers to pay the rent. Dunkin' Donuts was never that busy. But Taco Bell was, I don't know what happened there. But it seems something will open and then close again so its all a bit rubbish.' John Henry Brown, 69, said: 'I was born in Bradford in 1956 and I have not been out of Bradford in the 69 years since. 'The state of the place now is atrocious. They have blocked so many roads off it has stopped a lot of disabled people getting into town on the bus. 'Yet they are calling it the City of Culture. Where is the culture? It is just crap. 'The new market is very expensive. If you want a chocolate eclair it is going to cost you a fiver. 'They are supposed to be pulling a lot of the shops down to turn into houses but they already have so many empty properties they could turn into flats. 'Demolishing the empty shopping centres is going to cost millions and it is just a waste of money.' Josephine Eastwood said: 'You will be surprised how many people who live in Bradford will say to you "Oh, we don't go to Bradford to shop". 'We go to Leeds for our shopping and a lot of people go to Harrogate as well, like we do. It is not just the shortage of shops it is the smell of the drugs people are smoking. 'That's put me off as well. Then, you can guarantee someone will stop you and ask you if you have any money. 'It is not just a one off, and that's what puts people off coming here as well. 'Me and my husband shop in Harrogate all the time and never once have we had the problems we have here in Bradford.' The store is on the historic site of the A Fattorini The Jewellers, which made the FA Cup Trophy won by the Bantams but closed for good in 2021 after 190 years in Yorkshire A former Gold Connection Rolex dealers is now a pop-up shop selling cushions for £3 and head scarves for £1. The store is on the historic site of the A Fattorini The Jewellers, which made the FA Cup Trophy won by the Bantams but closed for good in 2021 after 190 years in Yorkshire. A man browsing the £3 cushions, who refused to be named, said: 'This used to be the best jeweller's shop in Bradford. Now it has all gone downhill. 'I blame people with cars travelling to out of town shopping centres That's why all the corner shops have closed down.' Many shoppers were in town to check out the city's new Darley Street market which opened this week. The much trumpeted state-of-the-art complex is being hailed by council bosses as a major boost to the flagging retail sector. Catherine Bagnall, 76, added: 'The shops around here are rubbish. Marks and Spencers closed down because of all the shoplifters. 'We are lost without Marks and Spencers. That was the only thing worth coming into town for. We are only here today to see what the new market is like. 'Bradford is not what it used to be. There are too many people high on spice. Your heart is in your mouth every time you hear someone behind you.' Among the first visitors to the new market were Jordan Fry, 29, and Rowan Tordoff, 27, and neither was impressed. Jordan said: 'The new market is not too bad. But there are not a lot of shops in there either. It is the first time I have been in the city centre in ages. 'We have only come to see the new market. When I was a younger I used to love going up and down the high streets. 'The new market is nice. But I don't know if there are more shops that are going to open up. Inside, there are three or four butchers, a fruit place and the rest is fabrics. 'We walked in five minutes ago, had a quick look, and came straight back out again.' Nodding in agreement, Rowan added: 'The new market looks a lot better than the rest of Bradford does. 'But I would rather go shopping in Leeds because there is more there. The shops in Bradford are all the same shops. 'I only came in for a spot of breakfast and to see the new market but it has been a bit of waste of time. 'The Kirkgate Centre is still open there is just not a lot in there now. Most of them have moved to Broadway or into the new market.' Abdul Pandor, 70, has been selling watches in the Kirkgate Centre for 15 years. He said: 'We had a really good business. 'Then over time things changed. Covid did not help but shopping has changed over time. 'They are selling stuff online cheaper than I can buy wholesale and I cannot beat that and survive when I have to pay rent and wages. 'We are keeping going for as long as I can then I will head away into the sunset. 'Fifteen years ago we were always busy but we are so quiet now. 'Young kids nowadays don't want watches anymore so we repair more than we sell.' Alec Janow, 63, was one of the only people window shopping in the nearly deserted streets leading to the city's former Oastler Centre. After decades of trading it closed on June 28 along with the Kirkgate Market. Both are facing demolition to make way for the Darley Street market. Mr Janow said: 'The whole place has gone to cock. I was born and bred around here and it has all gone downhill. 'The shops have been driven out by high rents and all the shoplifters. The new market is all very well but I think the place is too far gone.'
Telegraph
15 minutes ago
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‘Spoiled children' of chic Paris neighbourhood block budget supermarket
A chic neighbourhood in Paris has been described as a 'village of spoiled children' over protests against the arrival of an inner city supermarket. News that a Carrefour City mini-market is set to open on the corner of one of the city's most upscale neighbourhoods has drawn the wrath of residents and business owners who say they fear the deterioration of their wealthy community in the sixth arrondissement. Simon Benbaruk, the president of the local shopkeepers' association and a children's hairdresser, told French newspaper Le Monde: 'When you're paying more than €20,000 (£17,300) per square meter, you don't want to have scum downstairs.' Several petitions have been launched to protest the opening of the mini grocery store on the corner of streets Vavin and Bréa, a prime patch of real estate that overlooks a small, shaded, cobblestone square. The neighbourhood is also just steps from one of the city's most popular tourist attractions, the Luxembourg Garden. But Jean-Pierre Lecoq, the Republican mayor of the sixth arrondissement who signed off on the deal last year, lashed back at the petitioners, accusing them of hypocrisy. Signatories include bankers, publishers, lawyers, politicians and personalities from the French media, music and film industry. Mr Lecoq said: 'A large number of the petitioners have worked or work in finance.' 'They have contributed to financialising the economy and therefore killing the least profitable local businesses. It's a village of spoiled children who believe that everything belongs to them.' The current protest is a case of déjà vu. In 1996, residents revolted against the opening of a McDonald's on the same corner. But back then, Mr Lecoq, who had been newly elected as mayor of the arrondissement, lent his support to the protesters who eventually succeeded in blocking the arrival of the fast-food giant to their neighbourhood. Céline Hervieu, a Socialist deputy for the 11th constituency, lent her support to the protesters and said residents are 'fed up' with the homogenisation of neighbourhoods. She said: 'In the 6th, we are different, we want to keep our specificities, the cultural aspect of Montparnasse, access to beauty, a quality of life... Not to be part of this forced march.' One of the petitions launched in April warns that the opening of a corner shop will change the 'face of the neighbourhood forever'. Along with threatening small businesses like greengrocers, butchers, bakers and wine shops, residents are warned that they will have to put up with the arrival of delivery trucks, increased safety risks with the sale of alcohol, and the accumulation of waste in the square that will lead to 'the encouragement of begging'. Lénaïc Dufour, who launched the campaign, also points out that the neighbourhood is home to a heritage Art Deco building designed by 20th-century architect Henri Sauvage and should be managed as a 'protected zone'. Another petition spearheaded by a former economic journalist has garnered more than 3,000 signatures from high-profile French personalities, including Jacques Toubon, a former culture and justice minister, Alain Souchon, the singer, Ruth Elkrief, the TV journalist and Alain Finkielkraut, the essayist. Bruno Segré, a journalist, told Le Monde: 'Our neighbourhood is constantly under threat from people who want to change our ecosystem.' Counter petition launched On Saturday, a counter petition was launched in support of the corner shop opening, as a means to 'improve integration at all levels of local society' in one of the most affluent neighbourhoods in the city. It said: 'Over 40 per cent of households in this arrondissement are liable for wealth tax, a proportion well above the national average of 7 per cent – clear evidence of the significant inequality that persists in this area. 'By making basic necessities accessible to more people, we can help reduce this disparity.'
